DOUG’S BETTING CARD

• MAIN BETS – Dollar amounts differ for each person but unit sizes (1x through 5x) are an effective method. 5x represents my largest and most confident wager. The log of every single wager, since we launched in mid-August, is located at the bottom of this page. Plus, this is the net result of each sport:
• NFL: +8.045 units………..CFB: -4.3 units…………MLB: +8.95 units…………..UFC: -5.3 units
• NBA: -15.92 units…………WNBA: +3.0 units…….MCBB: -4.475 units……….WCBB: -1.7 units

• LEANS – These represent mere opinions on other games where my conviction is not high enough to place a wager.

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Jan. 2: .3x Tyreek Hill +3000 over 1,964.5 receiving yards for regular season (DraftKings)

Dec. 26: 2x Joe Flacco Comeback Player of the Year +400 (DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars)

5x Damar Hamlin Comeback Player of the Year -140

1x Baker Mayfield Comeback Player of the Year +1200

Jan. 7: 2x Stefanski Coach of the Year (-125) (FanDuel)

Dec. 26: .5x DeMeco Ryans NFL Coach of the Year +1000 (Caesars)

Dec. 26: 1x Dak Prescott NFL MVP +2500 (Caesars)

Dec. 21: 2x Rudy Gobert NBA Defensive Player of the Year -115 (FanDuel)

Dec. 20: 1x Pistons under 9.5 wins adjusted total +900 (DraftKings)

Dec. 18: 2x Myles Garrett NFL Defensive Player of the Year +165 (DraftKings)

Jan. 9: .7x Hunter Dickinson Wooden Award winner +1000 (DraftKings)

Jan. 9: .3x Kyle Filipowski Wooden Award winner +4000 (FanDuel)

Jan. 9: 1x Zach Edey NO Wooden Award +230 (FanDuel)

completed plays / results

.5x Thunder -3 vs. Warriors and .5x Thunder 1st Half -1.5 – I really like this spot, which includes Golden State off a win in which they started off poorly. Fading a team in that scenario typically bodes well. And OKC outranks the Warriors in both offensive and defensive efficiency, although some of that is misleading because of short-handed Golden State lineups. Also, the Warriors historically have been a strong third-quarter team so splitting the unit to include the first half makes sense. Also, when a bettor is on a cold run, it’s smart to pull back. So while I do like other plays, I will include them in Leans until I regain my groove. LOSS

LEANS: Pistons +11 L, Sixers -9 W, T’Wolves/Grizzlies under 213.5 L, Bulls -2 W, Knicks +7.5 L, Clippers/Jazz under 224.5 W, Kings -2 W

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 7 (-2.2 units)

2x Patriots/Steelers under 30 – Welp…I’ll take the bait. Honestly, New England should not be able to find the endzone more than once, if at all. The Pittsburgh defense is as stout as any, allowing the second-lowest completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks. In fact, turnovers and short fields concern me more than the Pats’ ability to score. The reason I am backing the under on such a historically low total is because of Mike Tomlin’s desire to bleed clock if his team has a sizeable lead. He doesn’t really step on the gas. LOSS

LEANS: Steelers -5.5 L, Pacers/Bucks over 257 L, Pelicans +2 L

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 6 (-.15 units)

1x Rockets 1st Qtr +.5 over Thunder – I am playing into a narrative of what Houston coach Ime Udoka said after the team’s last game. He was upset with their effort in a loss to the Lakers and basically called his players “soft”. I will play that angle, and I also like playing the first quarter because OKC has such an advantage in the second quarter with a strong bench. So I am hoping this young Rockets squad responds to their coach’s comments. WIN

1x Clips 1st Qtr PK over Nuggets (-115) – You never truly know what you’re going to get with the Clippers but this seems like the right play. In their last meeting, the Clips lost at home when Denver played without Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon. It was perhaps their worst loss of the season. I fully anticipate a strong start tonight. LOSS

LEANS: 76ers -10 L, Pistons +2 L, Spurs/T’Wolves under 230.5 W, Rockets +2 W, Jazz +11.5 L, Clippers -1 W, Blazers +12.5 W, Maryland -7.5 L, Texas +8.5 L, South Carolina +8.5 W

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 5 (-1.10 units)

1x Knicks (+5) at Bucks – This feels more like a coinflip game, given the coaching edge with Tom Thibodeau and just how unreliable Milwaukee has been. The Bucks have significant defensive issues and also will be limited offensively without Pat Connaughton. I expect a strong showing from New York and can win this game. LOSS

LEANS: Suns +1.5 L, UNC +5.5 L, Cornell/Syracuse under 165 W

MONDAY, DECEMBER 4 (-3.30 units)

2x Celtics/Pacers over 240.5 and 1x 1st half over 121 – This total opened 237.5 and has been appropriately bet up to the current number. I still think it’s too short. Perhaps the originators assumed a playoff atmosphere with defensive focus but I do not envision that. Indiana has cashed the over in 16 of 18 games. When they face an offensively-challenged team, then I understand the apprehension. However, both teams can score quickly and push the pace. In their earlier meeting, the Celtics dropped 155 points. Tyrese Haliburton did not play for Indiana and he only increases the pace and the Pacers’ scoring output. LOSS

LEANS: Pelicans +4 W, Iowa +12.5 L

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 3 (-1.20 units)

1x Broncos +3 at Texans – This could be a very fun game, given Denver has won five straight and the Houston offense has explosiveness. The Broncos defense has performed extremely well since the debacle in Miami. The Texans are resonating but some of it is misleading. This feels more like a toss-up game so I will gladly take three full points. LOSS

1x Niners -3 at Eagles and 1x under 47.5 – Philly deserves all the credit in the world for its 10-1 mark but this spot really sets up well for San Francisco. The Eagles are coming off intense games with the Chiefs and Bills. At some point teams hit a wall, and the Niners should be much fresher with extended rest from their Thanksgiving game and Philly just playing an overtime game. Of course the Eagles have answered every call but I do think it runs out here. 1x WIN, 1x LOSS

LEANS: Lions -4.5 W, Steelers -6.5 L, Panthers +3.5 W, Panthers/Bucs over 36.5 W, Rams -4 W, Packers +6 W

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 2 (-5.90 units)

4x Heat -5 vs. Pacers – Indiana will likely play without Tyrese Haliburton, who is essentially as valuable as any player. Indy lost by 51 points in its lone game this season without him. Plus, Indy has a huge game on Monday against Boston for the In-season Tournament. Bam Adebayo will miss this game for Miami but it still looks as though this is a classic case of an unfocused Pacers squad. LOSS

1x Hawks/Bucks over 253 – As I have mentioned, styles make fights. When these two types of teams meet, the power ratings cannot truly grasp the game flow. For example, Atlanta and Indiana combined for over 300 points in a recent game. This should have a similar pace. PUSH

1x Georgia/Alabama over 53.5 and 1x Georgia Team Total over 29.5 – Sharp money arrived on the under and Bama but sometimes you just have to stick to your guns. By their lofty standards, these two defenses are not as stout as we are accustomed to seeing. The Bulldogs have allowed some respectable outputs to subpar offenses so I believe the Tide can continue with their explosive plays. And that’s what Jalen Milroe and Bama utilize so well. As for Georgia, their offense is potent with Brock Bowers back from injury. I feel confident in their ability to score so will also play their team total. LOSS

3x Michigan -21.5 vs. Iowa and 2x Michigan Team Total over 27.5 points (-115) – This is a complete mismatch. Give the Hawkeyes credit for their 10-2 record and reaching this conference title game. But they only have managed wins because of their weak opponents, rather than an ability to outperform quality teams. They have only faced one ranked school and lost 31-0 to Penn State. And since that game, they’ve lost their starting QB and stud CB/punt returner Cooper DeJean to injury. The Wolverines are far superior and should not let up, given they benefit from “style points”. There’s a chance they earn the top overall seed for the CFP so I believe we are poised to see something similar to the 2021 Big Ten Championship Game, when Michigan beat Iowa, 42-3. 3x WIN, 2x LOSS

LEANS: Oklahoma State +15 L, Miami (OH) +7 W, Appalachian State +6 L, Louisville +1 L, Michigan/Iowa over 35 L, Iowa Team Total under 7.5 (-195) W, Duke -12.5 L, USC/Gonzaga over 152.5 W, Hawks +6 L, Pelicans -3 L, Thunder -4 W, Jazz -1.5 W, Rockets +5 L

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 1 (-.2 units)

1x Oregon -9 vs. Washington – I am taking a leap of faith on the Ducks, even though I know a very respected bettor played Washington +10 this week. We all know Oregon lost in Seattle but teams are allowed to improve, and the Ducks seemingly have done that every week. They even struggled to beat Texas Tech earlier this season. At this juncture, the Ducks appear significantly better than Washington when you compare common opponents. The Huskies have squeaked by, while Oregon has controlled those games. The table is set for Bo Nix and the Ducks to win by double digits. LOSS

1x Grizzlies/Mavericks over 226.5 – These two teams combined for 235 points earlier this season and Kyrie Irving missed that game. I expect a up-and-down game. Memphis is one of the league’s worst teams and there is always trepidation with betting the over, since they are dead last in offensive efficiency. However, Dallas can offset that with its high offensive and poor defensive rankings. LOSS

2x Nuggets -3 at Suns – I think this is a cheap price for Denver. The market did not account for Jamal Murray’s absence appropriately and now you get Murray. Plus, with Devon Booker out, I feel it’s much better value than -1.5 with Booker, which was the overnight line. There’s also the potential of Phoenix lacking focus, hence Booker’s absence, since the Suns play an in-season tournament game on Tuesday. Denver did not qualify. WIN

LEANS: New Mexico St +10.5 L, Oregon/Washington under 65.5 W, Sixers +6.5 L, Magic -11, Spurs/Pelicans over 237

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 30 (+1.0 units)

1x Pacers/Heat over 238.5 – I am back on this train, following just their second under in 16 games. It was a lethargic performance as a double-digit favorite that perhaps was derailed by a looming trip to South Beach. Either way, Indy shot just 24.2% from distance in an outlier performance and lost outright. I anticipate a professional approach tonight. WIN

LEANS: Knicks -14.5 L, Nets -8.5 L, Bucks -8.5 L, Lakers +6 L, Jazz +11 P, Warriors -4 W, Liberty +7.5 L, UC Riverside +17 W

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 29 (+3.8 units)

2x Tennessee/UNC under 145 – This feels like an extremely high number for a game involving Tennessee. The Vols rank 167th in offensive efficiency and 12th on the defensive side. They are extremely limited with playmakers and scorers and I believe they’re just fine with that. This is how they approach games. Carolina is not a lockdown defense but it does rank 50th in efficiency, which should pose enough of a problem for the U.T. offense. LOSS

2x Lakers -7.5 at Pistons – After losing by 40+ points, the Lakers should have a strong effort. And when you’re facing a team like Detroit, that’s typically all that is needed. The Lakers this season have a knack for beating up on the bad teams and racking up wins against inferior opponents. This should be another example of that. WIN

1x Clippers 1Q -.5, 1x Clippers 1H -1 and 2x Clippers -2 – This spot screams for a bet on the Clippers. Now, they certainly have issues and I would not be that stunned if they lost but I would be surprised. So as much as I hate backing this Clippers team, successful wagering entails anticipating more than reacting. The Kings are off a huge comeback win at Golden State, which is their current rival and it carried in-season tournament implications. Meanwhile, the Clippers are off perhaps their worst loss this season, losing at home to Denver without its three best players. I expect a strong start from the Clips. WIN

LEANS: Magic -10 W, Raptors +2.5 W, Jazz +4.5 L, Nuggets -9 W, Virginia -3.5 W, Colorado State -2.5 W, Arkansas +4.5 W, Virginia Tech +9 L, USC -17.5 W

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 28 (-1.1 units)

1x Rockets +4 at Mavericks – Houston is a much better team than anyone expected, and it really starts with their defense. The Rockets rank third in defensive efficiency, which has helped them post a 10-3-1 ATS record. Dallas still has massive defensive issues, ranking seventh-worst. So after a solid start, the Mavs have come back to earth with three losses in their last four games. LOSS

LEANS: Bucks/Heat under 228.5 L, Hawks +4 L, Timberwolves -3 P, Kings -1.5 L

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 27 (-5.5 units)

1x Blazers/Pacers over 240.5 – At some point this trend has to subside but I also think the style enables Indy’s opponents to perform above their metrics. That is why the Pacers have cashed the over in 14 of 15 games. Indiana forces teams to adjust to their style and frankly they’re probably thrilled to participate in that kind of game. LOSS

1x Pacers -12 vs. Blazers – This has blowout written all over it. Give Portland credit for leading Milwaukee by 26 points on Sunday but the Bucks rallied for the win. Against focused opponents, the Blazers are overmatched. I think we get a one-sided game. LOSS

3x Pelicans -5.5 at Jazz – This is a great spot to back New Orleans. These two teams just played on Saturday and Utah rallied in the fourth quarter for a win. Lauri Markkanen is out again but Jordan Clarkson and Zion Williamson are expected to play. New Orleans is a significantly better team and I expect a great effort. And the altitude should not be an issue, since the Pelicans have been in Salt Lake City a few days. LOSS

LEANS: Bears/Vikings over 43.5 L, Sixers -5 W, Nuggets/Clippers under 219 W

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 26 (+.8 units)

1x Jaguars 1.5 at Texans – Respected money has arrived on Jacksonville, as it typically plays the role of contrarian. C.J. Stroud and the Texans have been on a surprising roll but teams do not typically sustain that type of success over several weeks. WIN

1x Steelers/Bengals under 36 and 1x 1st Half under 17.5 – The rationale is pretty obvious. Cincy is without Joe Burrow and Pittsburgh always finds itself in low-scoring games. The Steelers are 8-2 to the under this season, as oddsmakers cannot seem to capture Mike Tomlin’s approach. He has a limited quarterback and plays very conservatively. I think the Bengals will do the same, particularly in the first half. WIN

1x Browns/Broncos under 37 and 1x 1st Half under 17.5 – Cleveland’s offense just isn’t the same with rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson. He did some nice things last weekend but this is his first road game. I do not expect that much production. As for Denver, their woes are self-explanatory. I expect Cleveland to muck this up and force the Broncos offense into difficult situations. LOSS

2x Bills +3 at Eagles – Philly owns the league’s best record but they certainly do not look as dominant as they did this time last year. Sharp money arrived on Buffalo +3.5 but I still think this is the right side at this price. The Eagles secondary is not as dominant and Josh Allen should be able to find success. PUSH

LEANS: Titans -3.5 W, Ravens -3 W, Raiders +8.5 L, Suns/Knicks under 219.5 L, Nuggets -11.5 W

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 25 (+3.5 units)

2x Pelicans/Jazz under 226 – Zion Williamson, Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson will all miss this game. Obviously oddsmakers know that and have adjusted the odds but I do not think they moved the total enough. The Jazz figure to have massive limitations on offense. I’d normally want to bet New Orleans laying a short number but I hate the situational spot, as they are coming off a big win at the Clippers. WIN

2x Mavericks/Clippers over 236 – This wager is about Dallas. The Mavs rank third in offensive efficiency and bottom ten in defensive. They push the pace and force teams to adapt to their style. The Clippers don’t exactly lock down on defense, as New Orleans just showed on Friday night. These two teams faced each other two weeks ago and combined for 270 points. James Harden had just joined L.A. but things haven’t improved much. LOSS

1x Jayden Daniels over 82.5 rushing yards and 1x over 2.5 passing TD (-160) – This is his final game before Heisman votes are tallied, given LSU will not play over championship weekend. I fully expect the coaching staff to play him the entire game and look to pad his stats. His dynamic ability should be on full display. WIN

1x LSU team total over 40.5 points – For the reasons mentioned above, the Tigers want to score points. However, I do not trust their defense and that’s why their games have gone over the total in all but one game. Sharp money arrived on LSU to move the point spread from 11 to 13 but that’s because team total limits are not that high. For one unit, I think that’s the wiser play. WIN

3x Kentucky +7.5 at Louisville – I realize this is a rivalry game but part of me wonders if Louisville is looking ahead to next week’s ACC title game. They already clinched a spot, following last week’s win at Miami and celebrated accordingly. They now face an SEC opponent that has lost five of the past six games. I think the Wildcats will be ready and they’re catching a lot of points. WIN

1x UNLV -2.5 vs. San Jose State – The Rebels own the nation’s best record at 10-1 ATS. Barry Odom has done an incredible job. Additionally, UNLV has played well in games with magnitude and that is certainly the case here. The Rebs can play for the Mountain West title if they win this game, and I expect a solid performance. Meanwhile, the Spartans have been a shaky road team and also lack a dynamic passing game. This number feels short. LOSS

1x Alabama -13.5 at Auburn – Obviously the Tigers were looking ahead to the Iron Bowl when they lost to New Mexico State last weekend. A flat performance is understandable but at some point you have to flip the switch and beat an inferior team. They did not and they’ve been a disappointment all season. Meanwhile, the Tide seemingly improve every single week and the offense really seems to be clicking. LOSS

1x Utah -20.5 vs. Colorado – All signs point to Buffaloes QB Shedeur Sanders missing this game with an injury. CU is already in a spiral, having lost five straight games, and I think this game can get away from them. The Utes have a knack for burying teams that are overmatched and this feels like one of those games. LOSS

1x Wisconsin -2.5 at Minnesota – This will be a painful watch but I think the Badgers take care of business. The Gophers have been limping to the finish line and I was impressed with Wisconsin’s win last week. You cannot bet a lot on a poor team like Wiscy but I feel comfortable laying points on the road when Minnesota is the opponent. WIN

LEANS: Ohio State/Michigan under 46.5 L, NIU/Kent St. under 44.5 L, LSU -13 L, San Jose St./UNLV over 59.5 W, Arizona -12 W, Maryland/Rutgers under 44.5 L, FSU/Florida under 49.5 W, Baylor +11.5 W, Hawai’i +5.5 W

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 24 (-1.6 units)

3x Suns -6.5 at Grizzlies – Not only is Memphis among the worst teams but this game impacts the in-season tournament. Much like the Suns against Portland in their last game, Phoenix is prioritizing score differential. Against the Blazers, Frank Vogel played his starters in the final minutes of a double-digit game, while Portland has substituted reserves. WIN

1x Pistons/Pacers over 243.5 – I cannot get off the train but I do have concerns about the Pistons maintaining pace. However, Indiana has cashed the over in 13 of 14 because of their aggressive offensive mindset and I still wonder if the betting market can account for their influence on a game’s tempo and vibe. WIN

2x Nebraska -2.5 vs. Iowa – Professional money has moved this number from PK, and I agree with the steam. Nebraska needs this win to become bowl-eligible and the Hawkeyes are already locked into the Big Ten title game next weekend. Now, we cannot assume the Huskers will play well because of the game’s significance. After all, they are on the bubble for a reason. However, I do think Iowa plays this game with limited excitement and I like the QB change to Chubba Purdy. With a total of 25, this should be a rock fight but I think we cover the short number. LOSS

1x Ohio/Akron under 41 – The Zips may not score. Ohio has a stout defense, and Akron is among the MAC’s worst teams. Ohio has been very reserved on offense lately so I think under makes the most sense. I anticipate a 24-3 final. WIN

2x Arkansas +9 vs. Missouri – The Razorbacks are a tough team to handicap. Just in the past month or so, they nearly upset Alabama in Tuscaloosa but also lose at home to Mississippi State. I think we get a good game from the Hogs, rallying around K.J. Jefferson’s final home. Missouri’s ceiling is pretty high and they can light up anyone but the Razorbacks have a respectable pass defense. LOSS

2x Dolphins/Jets 1st Half under 20.5 – I do not expect much from Tim Boyle but I do expect a strong bounceback effort from the Jets defense. They were understandably gassed last week in Buffalo but they should be recharged and perhaps rejuvenated with the QB change. Containing Miami’s offense is no easy task but I think they are up to the task. LOSS

LEANS: Jets +10 L, Arkansas/Missouri under 54.5 L, Texas Tech/Texas under 52.5 L, Oregon State +13.5 L, Knicks -5 L, Spurs/Warriors over 235.5 L

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 23 (-4.0 units)

2x Lions -7.5 vs. Packers – I am not going to overthink this. Detroit is the class of the division and Green Bay has been a disappointment. I will chalk last week’s performance by the Lions to apathy and lack of focus. This Thanksgiving game should have their attention, and I actually trust Detroit to cover this number. LOSS

1x 6-point Teaser: Lions -2 and Niners -1 (-130) – The rationale is pretty obvious. I essentially just need each team to win the game. Seattle should put up a strong fight against San Francisco but I trust the Niners to get the win. LOSS

.25x Dak Prescott last TD scored +1700 and .25x Sam Howell last TD +2200 – This prop pertains to a rushing or receiving touchdown. The lofty payouts interest me but Dak does have two rushing touchdowns this season and this game could be tighter than we think. And for Howell, he is a mobile QB and showed his willingness to pinball his body last week. Let’s have some fun with huge odds. LOSS

2x Ole Miss -10 at Mississippi State – This comes down whether Mississippi State can outperform its metrics because it’s a rivalry game. If not, Ole Miss should be able to carve up this weak defense and name the score. But even if the Bulldogs show up on defense, I also don’t think much of the offense. Lane Kiffin will light it up and not hold back. PUSH

LEANS: Sam Howell over 250.5 passing yards W, Commanders +13 L, Seahawks +7 L, Ole Miss/Mississippi St. under 53.5 W

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 22 (+3.0 units)

2x Bucks/Celtics over 234 – Milwaukee has played 11 games with both Giannis and Damian Lillard in the lineup, and seven of those have cashed the over. I just think they are such an offensive threat with both guys, and the defense is a giant liability with Lillard. Both teams rank in the top five in offensive efficiency and while the Celtics have an elite defensive rating, I just don’t think it applies against this type of offense. WIN

1x Raptors/Pacers over 241 – I fundamentally cannot get off the Pacers and their overs but I am reluctant to fire hard. Their style lends itself to overs but the situation certainly calls for a flat performance, given the huge win over Atlanta. WIN

3x Jazz/Blazers 1st half over 111 – Both teams played last time and traveled for this game, which is why I am isolating the first half. Utah ranks second-worst in defensive efficiency and Portland is in the middle of the pack. Offensively, the Blazers are a concern because they rank dead-last in efficiency. However, I think they can score against this Jazz defense, which is where I find value. PUSH

LEANS: Wizards +4.5vW, Hawks -2 P, Bulls/Thunder under 225.5 W, Clippers -8.5 L, Warriors +2.5 L

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 21 (+1.7 units)

2x Pacers/Hawks over 252 and 2x 1st half over 124.5 – Here we go again…hopefully. Indiana has cashed the over in 11 of its 12 games this season. The market is starting to adjust with this high total but is it high enough? I say no. The Hawks can keep pace with Indy, and I also think the situation calls for an over more than usual. The Pacers laid a giant egg in their last game, trailing Orlando by 21 points after one quarter and 34 at halftime. I anticipate a focused team, and that means plenty of offense. WIN

1x Pacers 1st Quarter +1 at Hawks – As I mentioned above, Indy’s last performance was atrocious. Rick Carlisle lit a fire and the team played hard in the fourth quarter. I think they carry that over to this matchup and approach this game with the right mindset. I think that provides an edge in the first quarter. LOSS

2x Suns -13 vs. Blazers – This is the first year of the in-season tournament and some coaches are showing their cards. Phoenix’s Frank Vogel has openly discussed its importance and needing to improve the team’s point-differential. Well, when there’s concern of overlooking an inferior opponent or a backdoor cover, I see that as an encouraging sign. PUSH

1x Bowling Green/Western Michigan over 50.5 – The regular season finale can be a tricky handicap. The Falcons are coming off a painful loss over rival Toledo and are already bowl-bound. How much will they care about this game? The Broncos have the capability to give up a lot of points but also score, when the stars align. I think they do tonight so I expect fireworks that the metrics cannot really project because of the unique circumstances. LOSS

1x Eastern Michigan / Buffalo over 37.5 – This is another unique situation. The Eagles need a win to become bowl-eligible and Buffalo is four quarters away from the offseason. I think EMU will empty the bucket on offense with trick plays and things along those lines. The Bulls typically grind clock with the ground-and-pound but maybe they are either forced to open things up to keep pace with EMU or they sling it around in their last game. Either way, this number is too low. LOSS

1x Eastern Michigan +5 at Buffalo – As I stated above, the Eagles can clinch a bowl berth with a victory. However, we have to be careful assuming the best possible outcome in these scenarios. After all, they are in this predicament for a reason. They also wanted to win games all season and were often unable to. However, I think this particular opponent allows for a golden opportunity, and I like how EMU has been playing lately. WIN

LEANS: Western Michigan 1st Half +.5 L, Jazz/Lakers over 238.5 L

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 20 (-1.20 units)

2x Eagles/Chiefs under 46 – I understand the offenses are grabbing a lot of the attention but I think points will be relatively scarce. In fact, I do not think Patrick Mahomes will be able to carve up Philly’s defense like he did in the Super Bowl. The main reason is the field condition, which was a disaster last February. That will not be the case at Arrowhead. Plus, KC already racks up holding calls and we could see several tonight. I anticipate both defenses being able to relatively contain each quarterback. WIN

2x Knicks 1st quarter (+1) at Timberwolves and 1x Knicks win race to 10 points (+100) – I like backing New York in this situation. Minnesota laid an egg on Saturday against New Orleans but rallied late for a one-point win. When this happens and the team still wins, they usually start the next game with similar apathy. Meanwhile, with Tom Thibodeau at the helm and with solid veteran leadership, the Knicks reliably bring effort on almost every night. I think the Knicks jump on Minnesota early. LOSS

Leans: Eagles +2.5 W, Pistons +9 W, Hornets +8.5 W, Spurs +8.5 L, Kings/Pelicans over 236 L, Rockets/Warriors under 217.5 L

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 19 (-11.50 units)

2x Celtics -11 at Grizzlies – One thing I enjoy doing is fading a bad team off a big victory. That’s the case for Memphis. They outscored the Spurs by 29 points in the second half yesterday for a comeback win. Now here come the Celtics, one of the league’s best teams, and I expect a beatdown. Memphis has issues. LOSS

4x Kings / Mavericks over 245.5 – Styles make fights and this should be an offensive explosion. Dallas ranks second in offensive efficiency and sixth-worst in defensive efficiency. The Kings are difficult to gauge because De’Aaron Fox has missed five games. With him, they are an electric offense and push the pace. In the six games he’s played, Sacto has posted at least 114 points. Add the Mavs to the mix and you have a game that should land over 250 with relative ease – or at least that’s what I expect. For example, Dallas just faced Milwaukee and their game landed 257, despite a total of 51 points in the second quarter. I also like that this game will tip at a normal time despite it being a Sunday. Athletes are creatures of habit so their routine is uninterrupted here. LOSS

1x Miami Dolphins -13.5 vs. Raiders – This number steamed up all week but Miami still feels like the right side. There’s no reason this spread should have opened at 9.5 offshore. The Raiders made noise with back-to-back wins but facing Tommy DeVito and Zach Wilson at home is much different than trying to slow down this Dolphins offense on the road. Miami is a bully and punishes weak competition. And while the Raiders’ culture has improved, they are still extremely limited, particularly with a rookie quarterback. LOSS

2x Cardinals/Texans over 48 – This has all the makings of a shootout. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray returned last week and was quite impressive, given the injury. And we all know about CJ Stroud’s recent production, and I do not anticipate the Houston defense offering much resistance. Scoring is down this season but this matchup should be an outlier. LOSS

2x Steelers/Browns 1st Half under 16.5 and 1x Full Game under 33 – This quarterback matchup leaves a lot to be desired – unless you’re betting the under. Rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson was overwhelmed in his last appearance but I anticipate a more competent version. I am not alone, as sharp money has pounded this line to move the Browns to 2.5-point favorites. But I think an improved DTR lends itself to the under because he will avoid turnovers, and we all know Kenny Pickett is limited. I expect both coaches to approach this very conservatively and lean on their defenses. We should have a rock fight until one team backs the other one into a corner and forces riskier play-calling. That’s why I prefer the first half total. WIN

1x 6-point teaser: Lions -2 + Commanders -2.5 vs. Giants (-130) – The entire betting world might have this teaser so who am I to avoid the fun? I am a man of the people… In all seriousness, this should cash. I do have concerns of recency bias, particularly with Washington. I also worry the Lions are flat off a huge win and may be looking ahead to Thanksgiving. However, I have concerns with every NFL bet so sometimes you just have to pull the trigger. You can’t be afraid to lose. LOSS

3x Broncos -2.5 vs. Vikings (-120) – At some point the Vikings and Joshua Dobbs have to come back to earth, and I think that is Sunday night. Denver not only upset the Bills but they have been playing much better. In fact, entering the season, a pro bettor told me that he was anticipating value on Denver midseason because that’s when Sean Payton will have this team connected. Even after three straight wins, I still think they are mispriced in the market. The Vikings should get a reality check in Denver. LOSS

Leans: Panthers +10.5 L, Cardinals +6 W, Chargers -3 L, Rams -2 L, Bills -7.5 W, Jazz +4.5 W, Rockets +5.5 W

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 18 (-1.80 units)

3x T’Wolves -7.5 at Pelicans – At first glance, this is a big number to lay on the road. However, this is a classic NBA handicapping scenario that usually works well. The Pelicans defeated the defending champs last night with an emotional and hard-fought win. That sets up a giant flat spot for today, especially with Zion Williamson missing the game. Meanwhile, Minnesota is off a loss that snapped its seven-game win streak and should be ready to bounce back. LOSS

2x Maryland +19.5 vs. Michigan – The Terps might be catching UM at the right time. It’s an emotional stretch for the Wolverines with the Jim Harbaugh suspension, a big showdown with Penn State last Saturday and Ohio State on deck. I also think the Terps are competent with a talented QB and recent history is on their side. Over the last six times that Michigan has faced the Buckeyes, the Wolverines have only covered once. In fact, last year the undefeated Wolverines nearly lost to Illinois at home. It’s hard to keep kids focused with all these distractions. WIN

2x Louisiana-Monroe +37.5 at Ole Miss – Much like Maryland, this is all about catching the Rebels in a giant “sandwich spot”. Ole Miss is off a showdown with Georgia and next has the Egg Bowl on a short week with rival Mississippi State looming on Thanksgiving. We’ve seen superior teams go through the motions in these types of situations. However, the Warhawks are understandably a giant underdog. They’ve lost eight straight games and failed to cover in five of those. They could easily get drilled but the Ole Miss defense is pretty weak so let’s hope ULM has enough firepower to keep this inside the number. WIN

3x SMU over 37.5 points at Memphis – The Tigers own a pitiful defense, and I fully expect head coach Rhett Lashlee and QB Preston Stone to carve them up. The Mustangs have two losses and they came on the road to TCU and Oklahoma. In their eight wins, they are averaging 47.1 PPG and while some of those weak opponents, the Memphis defense is that bad. And because the Tigers own a solid offense at times, I think SMU will have to keep pace with offense. WIN

1x Indiana -3.5 vs. Michigan State and 1x MSU team total under 21.5 points – This an awful showdown of two teams that each have one win in conference play. However, the Hoosiers are playing distinctly better football lately, covering three straight games. Sparty has its moments but ultimately this is a pedestrian offense by all accounts. The Spartans have only surpassed 21 points once in their seven conference games. LOSS

1x Georgia/Tennessee over 58.5 – It’s hard to make this play after seeing the Vols only muster seven points last week at Missouri but I have to treat that as an anomaly. UT should also play much better at home and be able to score enough against a Georgia defense that does not resemble the unit of the back-to-back national champions. The Bulldogs can also put up plenty of points, especially with stud tight end Brock Bowers back from injury. LOSS

2x USC -5 vs. UCLA – I was impressed with the Trojans at Oregon last week, although I still believe the Ducks should have covered. Nonetheless, USC had every opportunity to lay an egg and they showed tons of fight in a tough environment. Now they catch UCLA limping and coach Chip Kelly is seemingly done after this game. There’s certainly a chance the awful USC defense allows UCLA to cover and possibly win but I will go against the market move and lay the points. This is Caleb Williams’ final home game and he can torch any defense. LOSS

2x Minnesota/Ohio State over 50 – The Buckeyes are capable of hitting this over all by themselves. The Gophers have a terrible defense. It’s somewhat difficult to convey that with season-long statistics, given how meek Big Ten offenses are this year outside of the top teams. But the Gophers just allowed 49 points to Purdue and 37 to Illinois over their past two games. Earlier this season, Michigan dropped 52 on them and Minnesota has not faced Penn State. To me, all that points to a beatdown at the ‘Shoe. However, there are legitimate concerns of players looking ahead to Michigan next week and Ryan Day sitting guys in the second half of a blowout but that could also generate points by Minnesota. Additionally, we have the potential of them wanting to feed Marvin Harrison Jr. to bolster his Heisman Trophy campaign. I also believe this Buckeyes squad needs to find an offensive rhythm and perhaps the Gophers are the prescription for that. LOSS

3x Kansas State -10 at Kansas – The Wildcats have received nothing but steady steam of sharp money. It sure looks as though the Jayhawks will be down to a third-string quarterback and that will make it difficult for them to keep pace with Kansas State. The Wildcats just dropped 59 points against Baylor and should destroy this KU defense. Kansas State is still alive for the Big 12 title, while Kansas was eliminated last week in a tight loss. This is a rivalry game and KU is very well-coached but I still believe in the Wildcats. LOSS

1x LSU Team Total over 52.5 points over Georgia State – All 10 Tigers games have cashed the over, which is remarkable. I am opting for the team total because I am unsure what to expect from Georgia State. Even if the Panthers contribute points towards the total, that will force LSU to keep scoring. Also, LSU has three losses but QB Jayden Daniels is still very much in the Heisman Trophy conversation. And since LSU will not play the final weekend before voting closes, he needs to continue to put up astronomical stats. So I am inclined to believe Brian Kelly will do what he can to light it up, given how much a Heisman can help recruiting. WIN

2x Jayden Daniels with 70+ rushing yards (+100 at FanDuel)– Honestly, he may cash this ticket by halftime. Daniels has electric speed and all it takes is the slightest defensive lapse to give him an alley that he can turn into a house call. As I mentioned above, LSU is not worried about preserving him. They want him to win the Heisman and that will become a priority at certain junctures. FYI, FanDuel also has over 66.5 yards at -114 and DraftKings has over 63.5 yards at -125. I just prefer this number and juice. WIN

2x Jayden Daniels over 3.5 passing TD – As a 32-point favorite, LSU will have plenty of endzone opportunities. And given the underlying Heisman narrative, I fully expect Brian Kelly to call passes near the goal line. This is an atypical game. We saw a similar mindset last week with the San Francisco 49ers. In a blowout and the starting QB already pulled, San Francisco was still trying to get Christian McCaffrey a touchdown because of an NFL record. There is legitimate benefit for LSU if Daniels wins the Heisman, and I think they will do what they can do enhance his chance. WIN

1x UFC Parlay (-125): Brendan Allen “Inside the Distance” over Paul Craig + Michael Morales over Jake Mathews – This is a parlay with two legs coming from the UFC’s main card. Allen ITD has a prop price of -280 and Morales is a -310 favorite. A $125 parlay pays $100. As for the breakdown, Morales has answered every challenge and is ascending the ranks. Matthews lacks a single advantage in this matchup and Morales will pepper him with accurate strikes and avoid any reckless risks. As for the main event, Allen should notch a dominating win. Given it’s scheduled for five rounds, I am comfortable opting for the -280 rather than the -440 for any type of win. I think he wins via a submission but the KO is possible. That’s what makes him dangerous against Craig, who has more game than people realize. With that being said, he’s lost two of three and Allen is polished enough to avoid a key mistake. WIN

.5x Jordan Leavitt to win via KO/TKO/DQ over Chase Hooper +900 (DraftKings) (FanDuel has +1000) – UFC – This price is just too good to pass up. Leavitt has an awkward style and this fight likely goes to the judges but Hooper’s last loss did come via TKO. Now, that was in a different weight class and he looked much better in his last fight without having to cut. But he’s sloppy and his reputation as a sound fighter gets exposed when facing better opponents. I am unconvinced Leavitt is at that level but we are getting +900 on a half-unit. That’s the key. Leavitt is a +170 underdog but I think the value is on the knockout prop. Leavitt can stymie the clinch and pick his spots against a disorganized Hooper. LOSS

Leans: Oklahoma -24.5 L, Louisville +1 W, Louisville/Miami under 46 L, SMU -8.5 L, Northwestern +3 W, Wyoming -13.5 W, Cincinnati +5 L, Virginia +3 W, Illinois/Iowa under 32.5 W, UNLV +3 W, Stanford +7 (-115) L, Oregon State -1.5 L, Florida/Missouri over 57 W, Wisconsin -6 W, Iowa State +7.5 L, San Jose State -14.5 L, (UFC) Jordan Leavitt +170 L, Hornets +6.5 L, Mavs/Bucks over 247 W, Thunder -1 W

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 17 (+3.8 units)

2x Knicks -7 at Wizards and 1x Knicks team total over 117.5 points – Laying these many points on the road is tough but Washington is as bad as it gets in the NBA. They are thin on talent and their main guys, such as Jordan Poole, lack leadership skills. The complete opposite of that is Tom Thibodeau and the Knicks. They should drill Washington and not mess around. The Knicks can hit scoring droughts but Washington ranks fifth-worst in defensive efficiency. So I trust them to knock down open jumpers. WIN

2x Kings Team Total over 123.5 points at Spurs and 1x 1st Half team total over 63.5 points – The handicap is pretty simple. The Kings are a fast-paced and productive team with De’Aaron Fox in the lineup, and the power ratings cannot quite fully capture that because he’s missed a handful of games. The Spurs rank second-worst in defensive efficiency and I see no reason Sacramento can’t light them up. I prefer the team total over the game total because San Antonio can sometimes lay an egg, which we saw on Tuesday when they only scored 87 points. 2x WIN, 1x LOSS

1x Suns 1st Half (-3) at Jazz – Phoenix will be without Bradley Beal but the tandem of Devin Booker and Kevin Durant should be enough to cover this number in the first half. When you compare these two teams’ scoring and points allowed by each half, the biggest advantage is the Suns in the first half. Perhaps the Salt Lake City altitude plays a role. Either way, I do think this is the right play. LOSS

1x Rockets +7.5 at Clippers – I’ll take the bait. Sharp money arrived on the Clippers to push this number up but I still do not believe in the Clips. They are 0-6 since acquiring James Harden and while Russell Westbrook voluntarily coming off the bench may help morale, they still have a lot of work to do. On paper this should be a one-sided win for L.A. but the Rockets are much more cohesive and have an excellent coach. WIN

Leans: USF +16 L, Colorado/Wazzu over 61.5 W, Celtics/Raptors over 224 L, Bulls 1st Half -1.5 L, Pelicans +5.5 W, Suns/Jazz over 237 W, Blazers +8.5 L

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 16 (+3.0 units)

1x Pittsburgh -2.5 vs. Boston College – I hate that I am making this bet but I have to stick to my convictions. Pitt is 2-8 but still a better team and I expect a good effort. They let me down last week but now they’re at home and facing an inferior Boston College team. The Eagles are bowl-eligible but all their wins came against weak competition. It’s a very misleading record. Pat Narduzzi is a headache to back but I will do it one more time. WIN

2x Thunder -3 at Warriors – Golden State will play short-handed without Steph Curry and Draymond Green. The supporting cast played well most of Wednesday night but ultimately, they just lack the firepower. Meanwhile, OKC is a much better team than people realize, ranking in the top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The Warriors also have a top-15 ranking in each category but they are missing their main weapons on each side of the floor. WIN

Leans: Bengals +3.5 L, Heat -3.5 W

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 15 (-1.1 units)

3x Kings/Lakers over 235 – The season stats are difficult to apply in this matchup because each team has battled different lineups. Sacramento just got De’Aaron Fox back and he is so critical to their performance. The Lakers have also started to gel and improve their offensive production. With both teams at full strength and in their current form, they can light up the scoreboard. For example, the Lakers just set a franchise record for made three-pointers in their last game. Sacramento wants to push the pace with Fox and the Lakers will oblige. PUSH

1x Timberwolves +5 at Suns – This is supposed to be the first time this season that Phoenix has its three All-Stars in the starting lineup. But it will take some time for Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal to develop chemistry. Head coach Frank Vogel will also need time to optimize his substitution patterns. Minnesota just played in Golden State but this game matchup will have their attention. This just feels like too many points for such a talented T’Wolves squad. I am also expecting a big performance from Anthony Edwards. LOSS

Leans: Miami (OH) -7.5 W, Buffalo/Miami under 37.5 W, Central Michigan/Ohio under 48.5 L, Celtics -5 W, Magic +2 W

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 14 (+3.7 units)

2x Toledo -6.5 (1st Half) (-105) at Bowling Green – The Rockets are the class of the MAC and do not have to travel for this rivalry game. Toledo is looking for revenge and all signs point to a strong start. I prefer betting the first half line because I think we get some line value with that revenge angle. Also, the MAC can be wild and the Falcons are plenty competent enough to cover through the back door. LOSS

3x Pacers/Sixers over 240.5 and 1x 1st Half over 122 – These two teams played on Sunday and combined for 263 points. I do not see any reason why that changes drastically. The Pacers lead the league in scoring and have gone over their total in all but one of their 10 games. They play minimal defense and want to push the pace. Philly owns elite defensive metrics but those are diminished when you face a team like Indy that initiates such a unique tempo and vibe. WIN & LOSS

1x Nuggets -4.5 vs. Clippers – This is a straight fade of James Harden and the Clippers. They are 0-4 straight up and against the spread since acquiring him from Philly. Denver has some issues since losing Jamal Murray and I do not believe the betting market fully captures his worth. However, the Clips are such a train wreck that I have to take this stance. LOSS

5x Timberwolves -2.5 at Warriors – Steph Curry is out for this game. Minnesota moved from a 2.5-point underdog to a favorite of 2.5. That is way too small of a move. I see Minnesota as at least a six-point favorite. The T’Wolves may be flat because Curry is out but ultimately this is the right play. WIN

Leans: Akron/Easter Michigan under 39 L, Western Michigan +4.5 L, Lakers -5.5 W

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 13 (+4.0 units)

1x Bucks 1st team to 20 points vs. Bulls (-180) – I am expecting a strong start from Milwaukee, which is riding a two-game losing streak and should get Damian Lillard back from injury. Additionally, the Bulls are coming off a win on Sunday so I think the situation presents a likelihood for an emphatic Milwaukee start. WIN

3x Bucks 1st Quarter -3 vs. Bulls – First quarter and first half lines are directly commensurate with the game lines. Oddsmakers do not approach them in a vacuum. That allows for certain opportunities, such as this matchup. Not only should Milwaukee approach this game with much more focus and urgency than Chicago, but the Bulls’ starting lineup has poor efficiency metrics. Specifically, DeMar DeRozan’s net rating is -15.2 in the first quarter this season. WIN

Leans: Broncos +7.5 W, Broncos/Bills under 47 W

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 12 (+5.1 units)

2x 49ers -3 at Jaguars (-115) – Waves of sharp handicappers are backing San Francisco off a bye and trying to snap a three-game skid. Jacksonville has won five straight games but still has doubters. A Jags win would not surprise me, and perhaps a 20-1 Trevor Lawrence MVP ticket is worth a play, but in the NFL, teams do not run the table. This is a good spot to back San Francisco. However, keep in mind Trent Williams is unlikely to play. WIN

1x Christian McCaffrey to score a TD (-190) – By now we all know the deal. He has scored at least one touchdown in 17 straight games. I do not see any reason this run stops. -190 translates to 66%, and I believe his chances of scoring are higher than that. The Niners have a team total of 23.5, which essentially represents three touchdowns. McCaffrey should produce one of them. LOSS

1x Lions -3 at Chargers (-105) – I refuse to allow a couple decent wins to skew my view of the Chargers. Detroit is the superior team and is much more reliable. I typically avoid backing Jared Goff on the road but L.A. weather justifies the exception. If Justin Herbert has an excellent game, then so be it. But he and Brandon Staley find ways to botch games so I will ride with Detroit. PUSH

2x Jets/Raiders under 36 and 1x 1st half under 17.5 (-115) – This is my favorite play of the NFL card. The Vegas offense looked competent against the Giants but the Jets are a much different story. They rank in the top five in opponent points per play. It is a stingy group, and this game is critical if they want to remain in the playoff picture. Plus, the Jets have their own issues on offense. I think the Raiders defense, particularly Maxx Crosby, will harass a skittish Zach Wilson and points will be hard to find. Motivated by variance, I felt like breaking up three units between the first half and game. WIN

2x Pacers/76ers over 237 – Indiana has gone over its total in eight of nine games, thanks to leading the league in offensive efficiency and ranking among the worst in defense. I still doubt the betting market can fully grasp this team. The Sixers also rank high in offensive efficiency but their defense is stout. However, given how Indy approaches that side of the court, I am unsure Philly can defend the three-point line that well. WIN

Leans: Colts -2 W, Packers +3 (+100) L, Saints/Vikings under 41 W, Browns +6.5 W, Cowboys -17 (-115) W, Seahawks -5.5 L, Clippers -8.5 L, Nuggets/Rockets under 217 W, Mavericks/Pelicans over 234.5 W, Pistons +7.5 L

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 11 (-4.8 units)

2x Alabama -11 at Kentucky – The Tide are a much better team than they were earlier this season. Thus, they offer betting value because the stats that account for their power ratings do not accurately reflect the current version. Meanwhile, Kentucky has been a bit of a farce, losing to good opponents: Georgia, Missouri and Tennessee. QB Devin Leary has not delivered on the hype he brought as a transfer and Wildcats coach Mark Stoops sent the wrong message with some comments after the Georgia loss. The Tide’s offense is clicking and I think this game gets out of hand. WIN

1x North Carolina -12.5 vs. Duke – This line has seen some sharp money on both sides but those came at different prices, since it did reach as high as 14.5. The Tar Heels have experienced some disappointment but at their best, this a potent offense with big-strike capabilities. Duke has a stout defense but it can become vulnerable if it’s asked to do too much, which has typically been the case when QB Riley Leonard is not healthy. Of course he is out and the Blue Devils are turning to Grayson Loftis. I think this game stays close for about a half and then the Heels have too much firepower. LOSS

1x Ole Miss / Georgia over 58 – The Bulldogs defense is not as stout as in recent years. That’s why some schools have been able to move the ball and cover, which is why UGA is only 2-6-1 ATS. Vanderbilt, UAB, Auburn, Florida and Missouri all scored at least 20 points so I do believe Lane Kiffin and the Rebels can generate enough offense. I also think the ‘Dawgs offense is capable of lighting up a suspect Ole Miss defense, especially if tight end Brock Bowers returns from injury. Either way, I anticipate a 41-24 type of game. WIN

1x Cal -2 vs. Washington State – This is a direct play against Wazzu, which is having as puzzling of a season as anyone. The Cougars once had a top-15 ranking but have since lost five straight. The Bears have lost four straight themselves but all those games came against quality competition. And I like the recent move to freshman QB Fernando Mendoza, who is 6-foot-5 and seems to have a command of the offense. WIN

1x Tennessee/Missouri over 58.5 – There really is no reason for this to be anything but a shootout. Both teams have potent offenses and play with pace. The total dipped to 57 midweek because of an injury to stud Tigers wideout Luther Burden but he has been cleared. Additionally, Mizzou has a couple guys in their secondary that are banged up. Vols QB Joe Milton can be a bit mercurial but he has a cannon and U.T. can light it up. LOSS

2x Oregon -16 vs. USC – This has all the makings of a beatdown that could mirror Colorado’s 42-6 loss in Eugene. Much like USC’s loss to Washington, the Buffs were coming off an emotional game and had nothing left in the tank. We all saw the video of an emotional Caleb Williams and another poor defensive performance. Firing coordinator Alex Grinch does nothing for a defense that leads the Pac-12 in missed tackles and cannot stop anyone. Additionally, the Ducks need style points to maintain their highest ranking of the one-loss schools, in addition to winning recruiting battles with USC. The Trojans likely left it all on the field against the Huskies and have the potential to get routed under the Autzen lights. LOSS

2x Oregon team total over 47.5 points – There is no reason to believe USC can stop this powerful Oregon offense. Firing the defensive coordinator does nothing positive, except possibly rattling the cages of defenders. However, if they had the talent and capabilities to play better, they would have done that in their biggest matchups. The Ducks should be able to name their score and hang a huge number. And in case Caleb Williams and the USC offense shows up and enables the Trojans to cover, betting the team total serves as some protection. LOSS

2x Pitt -3 vs. Syracuse – I hate betting on Pat Narduzzi but I have to fade a Syracuse team that has seemingly come undone. The Orange have lost five straight games, which include four blowouts to superior programs and a home loss to Boston College. The ‘Cuse has only mustered 44 points during this five-game skid but allowed 167. It’s not fun backing a favorite that has lost three straight but Pitt’s last two losses came against quality opponents in Florida State and Notre Dame. The first one was at Wake Forest in a game they easily had won, if QB Christian Veilleux did not slide. This won’t be a pretty game but I do believe the Panthers will come to play, which is not something I can say for Syracuse. LOSS

2x San Jose State -2.5 vs. Fresno State – The Spartans have taken a steady flow of sharp money all week, moving from the underdog to the favorite. They’ve won three straight games and seem to have resolved their early struggles. However, the true test comes against an 8-1 Fresno State. However, the Bulldogs have played three straight one-score games and San Jose State is off a bye. The fresher team is who I want to back this late in the season. WIN

2x Kyung Ho Kang (+105) vs. John Castaneda at UFC 295 – Kang has taken the sharpest of sharp money, driving this underdog price all the way down from +140. Kang is better with the legs and should win, if he can avoid tight punching and any grappling. He’s coming off back-to-back victories, including an impressive win over Cristian Quinonez, that I think gives him the edge. LOSS

Leans: Virginia Tech -1.5 W, Miami +14.5 W, Georgia Tech +14 L, UCF +2.5 W, Purdue +2 W, Michigan/Penn State over 45 L, Kansas -4 L, Colorado +10 W, West Virginia +11.5 L, Rutgers/Iowa under 27.5 W, BYU +7.5 L, Air Force/Hawaii over 47.5 L, Heat +7.5 W

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 10 (+2.0 units)

2x Celtics -7 (1st half) vs. Nets – The Cam Thomas injury should have a large impact on Brooklyn, given he’s the leading scorer and an automatic bucket. I also like backing very good teams off a loss, which is the case for Boston. The Celtics also rank among the top teams in first half scoring and rank tenth in points allowed in the first half. It’s a good spot to back them against a depleted opponent. WIN

Leans: Wyoming +3 L, Clippers/Mavericks over 236.5 W, Rockets -1.5 W

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 9 (+1.0 unit)

1x Panthers/Bears under 39 – The rationale is pretty straight forward. Both teams have rookie quarterbacks and have struggled most of the season. I also think Carolina’s defense is solid and do not believe in Bryce Young enough to think he will torch a weak Chicago defense. Let’s not overthink it. WIN

Leans: Panthers +3.5 W

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 8 (+4.0 units)

1x Jazz/Pacers over 242 , 1x 1st half over 118.5, 1x Pacers Team Total over 124.5 points – We’ve covered Indiana in this space many times. At full strength, they want to run and shoot three-pointers, which is why they have cashed six of seven overs this season. They currently lead the NBA in scoring and both these teams rank in the bottom six in defensive efficiency. This has all the makings of a track meet so rather than play 3 units on one wager, I am going to distribute the units over three separate but correlated bets. WIN

1x Suns 1st Half PK (-110) vs. Bulls – The Bulls rank among the worst teams in first half scoring and the entire lineup is a mess, given DeMar DeRozan has such a terrible plus-minus in relation to his teammates. The Suns are a strange team right now with the ongoing uncertainty of Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. Somehow the offense has been fine in first halves so I am going to ride that trend but this is also a bet against Chicago. PUSH

1x Bucks team total under 120.5 points vs. Pistons – It’s a bit stressful to fade an offense with such a high ceiling but this is a high point total. Additionally, Detroit ranks in the middle of the pack of defensive efficiency so asking the Bucks to score 121+ points on them will be a challenge. Milwaukee has only scored 123 or more in one of its six games. I feel like their range for this matchup is between 109 and 127 so I feel we have more ways to win than lose, which I believe is the best way to approach NBA teams totals. WIN

Leans: Akron/Miami (OH) under 38 W, Bowling Green -10.5 W, EMU/Toledo under 45 L, Celtics -3 L, Knicks team total over 117.5 W, Rockets +4.5 W, Nuggets -4 L, Raptors +4 W, Blazers +8 W

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 7 (-2.2 units)

2x Northern Illinois (-10) vs. Ball State – As wild and unpredictable as MAC-tion can be, I have to lay the points with Northern Illinois. I actually like the fact that the Huskies lost last week because I think an inferior will have their attention. NIU cannot afford to mess around. As for Ball State, it’s been a brutal season. The Cardinals have only defeated one FBS team and are 0-5 on the road, including 1-4 ATS. This should be a convincing home win. LOSS

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 6 (+2.0 units)

1x Chargers/Jets under 41 – As the old adage goes, styles make fights. The Jets have the right defense to limit Justin Herbert, being able to apply pressure and also guard his talented receivers. New York also has a knack for hanging around with field position and a vanilla offensive approach with Zach Wilson. Above all, I am not putting too much stock in the Chargers’ last game. They absolutely needed the win, and Chicago is as poor as teams come. In the two previous games, they scored 17 points against the Chiefs and Cowboys. That’s where I expect this game to land. WIN

1x Pacers Team Total over 124.5 points vs Spurs – Indiana plays at a ridiculous pace, and the Spurs are typically a team that will oblige. These two rank in the bottom five of points per game allowed. I am siding with Indiana’s team total instead of the conventional total play because San Antonio can occasionally lay an offensive egg. For example, they only mustered 83 points in their first road game and this is the second of a back-to-back situation. They’re still working out the kinks but the Pacers know who they are and will be ready for a track meet. WIN

Leans: Jets +3.5 L, Warriors -7 W, Thunder PK W, USC -3 W, South Dakota State -2 L, New Mexico State +16 L

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 5 (-.2 units)

1x Packers -3.5 vs. Rams – This is purely a play against the Rams, who are expected to start backup QB Brett Rypien. In short, oddsmakers dislike these types of situations. They prefer both teams at full strength because their power ratings are more accurate. As for this matchup, they don’t know what the right spread is with Rypien. As bad as Green Bay is, I think the Rams will experience a giant dropoff without Matthew Stafford, who has been great this season. Sharp money has arrived on the Packers, and I will still lay the 3.5 points. WIN

1x Colts -2 at Panthers – At this point of their careers, Gardner Minshew is far more capable than Bryce Young and poses a larger threat to the opposing defense. Carolina notched their first win last weekend but that came against a rookie quarterback and limited offense. The Colts should be able to score more points, although I do worry about their shaky defense. My hope is that they can confuse Young enough. WIN

2x Raiders team total under 19.5 points – The under has cashed in all eight games so far. Obviously the team shook up the coaching staff and front office but I do not see how an inexperienced play-caller and rookie QB translate to more points. New coach Antonio Pierce will probably encourage the team to throw more to Davante Adams, as owner Mark Davis is frustrated. However, the issues are more personnel-related, given the weak offensive line, and Aidan O’Connell has a propensity to hold the ball too long. LOSS

Leans: Dolphins +1 L, Ravens -6.5 W, Falcons -4 L, Bengals -2.5 W, Eagles -3 W

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 4 (-.1 units)

1x Iowa State -3 vs. Kansas – This is all about the situational spot. The Jayhawks are coming off a huge win over Oklahoma and often in these situations we see teams unable to maintain the necessary focus and preparation for a competitive game the following week. The Cyclones are also playing decent ball, having won three straight games by double digits. The stars are aligned for a solid Iowa State win. LOSS

1x Purdue/Michigan over 53.5 – The Wolverines have been able to block out the noise surrounding the Jim Harbaugh allegations and remain undefeated with emphatic victories. I expect a similar performance against Purdue. Michigan has scored at least 45 in all but one conference game and the outlier came against Rutgers, which bleeds clock at all costs. The Boilermakers are often inept but they do have capabilities to score points. If they don’t, they tend to shoot themselves in the foot with turnovers, which will give Michigan short fields. With a road game at Penn State on deck, there is a chance the Wolverines look past Purdue with a lethargic effort but perhaps that scenario would enable Purdue to score a lot. WIN

Leans: Kansas State +3.5 W, Indiana +8 W, Tennessee -35 W, Clemson +3.5 W, Minnesota -2.5 L, Penn State -9 W, Washington -3 W, UCLA -2.5 L, Stanford +13 W, Nuggets -10 W

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 3 (-1.1 units)

1x Knicks team total over 109.5 vs. Bucks – New York has had trouble scoring at times but I think they break out against Milwaukee. The Bucks own the league’s worst defensive rating, feeling the effects of the coaching change. This game counts towards the in-season tournament but I doubt that changes anything. The Knicks should encounter minimal resistance against a team that has allowed this many points in all four games so far. LOSS

Leans: Syracuse -3 L, Nuggets -6.5 W, Grizzlies/Blazers under 221 L

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 2 (-6.8 units)

1x Titans +3 (-120) at Steelers – At the expense of overreacting to a great debut by Titans rookie quarterback Will Levis, this feels like too good of a number to pass up. Catching three points in a game with a total of 37 is very valuable, particularly because Mike Tomlin is so conservative and seemingly wants to win games in the fourth quarter. Additionally, Pittsburgh has some question marks. LOSS

1x Titans/Steelers 1st half under 18.5 points – This feels like the right approach. If I like a football game under the total, I will play the first half. In this case, both coaches will do what they can to avoid turnovers and play conservatively, rely on their defense. The fourth quarter could lead to short fields and forced passes, if one team is trailing by two scores. The first half is the more logical choice. LOSS

2x Wake Forest / Duke 1st under 21 (-115) – Blue Devils QB Riley Leonard will miss this game and that completely changes the handicap. They just cannot move the ball with the same effectiveness. The Wake defense is sufficient enough to limit them, and we know the Duke defense is extremely solid. I expect a conservative approach in the first half by Duke, hoping to allow the defense to create turnovers and short fields. LOSS

2x Suns -5 1st Half vs. Spurs – This is a classic handicap of the revenge angle. These two teams played on Tuesday and the Spurs rallied from a 20-point deficit. Phoenix should be plenty motivated and focused. I feel the largest discrepancy of that will be in the first half so I want to isolate that angle. LOSS

Leans: Jazz +1 L, South Alabama +4 L, Raptors +8 L, Pistons +5 L

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 1 (+1.0 unit)

1x Blazers/Pistons under 214 – Portland ranks among the league’s lowest-scoring teams and has only eclipsed the century mark once in its first four games. And now Anfernee Simons is injured. The defense has been torched by the Clippers and Sixers but the Pistons do not typically have that kind of firepower. This number feels a tad too high. WIN

Leans: Rangers -115 W, Bowling Green -5.5 L, Akron -4.5 L

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 31 (+1.0 unit)

1x Knicks -3.5 at Cavaliers – Cleveland is still short-handed without Jarret Allen and Darius Garland. Additionally, Donovan Mitchell is listed as questionable. The Knicks are solid and have proved their capabilities, taking the Celtics to the wire and only losing to New Orleans because of a brutal scheduling spot. WIN

Leans: Northern Illinois -5.5 L, Toledo -15.5 W, Rangers/D’Backs under 9.5 L, Suns -7.5 L

MONDAY, OCTOBER 30 (-4.4 units)

3x Bulls/Pacers over 226 – I think this number is way too low. While Chicago could clog the pace, I really do not think they have the capabilities to do that to an Indiana team that may lead the NBA in scoring. Point guard Tyrese Haliburton is the key. He fills up the stat sheet and orchestrates an offense that wants to push pace and bomb threes. In three meetings last year in which he played, these two teams combined for 230, 233 and 247 points. I would also consider some alternate totals and the first half total, once it is posted. LOSS

1x Pelicans -2.5 vs. Warriors – For the second straight game, New Orleans is catching an opponent on the second night of back-to-back road games. Additionally, New Orleans is loaded and Zion Williamson presents all sorts of challenges to oddsmakers. Steph Curry can win a game by himself but outside of that, this should be a solid win for New Orleans. LOSS

Leans: Pacers -3.5 L, Bucks -5 W, Magic +2.5 L, Diamondbacks -1.5 (+180) L

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 29 (+2.0 units)

1x Dolphins -8 vs. Patriots – New England shocked everyone with its win over Buffalo last weekend but now they catch the Dolphins off a loss. Miami plays the roll of bully very well. I expect Miami to dominate and while Bill Belichick does have a knack for confusing quarterbacks, I just do not believe in the Pats. WIN

1x Seahawks -3.5 vs. Browns – Phillip Walker is not a good QB and we have much more evidence of that than of the recent performances that have led to wins. Keep in mind that while Cleveland scored 39 points last week, he still had a QB rating of 51. Plus, it is a horrible spot for Cleveland. The Browns are riding consecutive wins and this is a second straight road game. I anticipate a strong performance from Seattle. WIN

Leans: Titans +2.5 W, Vikings -1 W, Rams +6.5 L, Chiefs/Broncos under 45.5 W, Bengals/49ers under 43.5 L, Bears +8.5 L

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 28 (-2.2 units)

1x Kentucky +4 vs. Tennessee – This is a great spot to back the Wildcats. They’re off a bye and two losses, and UK catches Tennessee off a tough loss at Alabama. Do the Vols have the maturity to gut out a road win and cover on back-to-back games, including enduring the physicality of playing the Tide? They might but I’ll bank on the rested team. LOSS

1x Purdue +2.5 at Nebraska – This should be a brutal watch, given the pedestrian offenses and inclement weather involved. However, the Boilermakers have a much higher ceiling, which I feel is important to acknowledge in these types of matchups. Purdue enters this game off a bye, and my gut tells me they can avoid the mistakes and finish off drives more effectively. LOSS

Leans: Maryland -14 L, Michigan St. +7 L, Duke/Louisville under 45.5 W, USTA -18 L, Colorado St. +14.5 L

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 27 (+.9 units)

2x Spurs -2.5 vs. Rockets – Houston is likely the league’s worst team and has limited firepower. Fred VanVleet is a nice option and Alperen Sengun can keep the defense off-balance but this team is extremely limited. The Spurs aren’t exactly a contender but they have seven guys that can score double-figures. For what it’s worth, they just played in the preseason and San Antonio led by 19 points after the first quarter and no one played more than 30 minutes. Houston just doesn’t have the horses and it will have growing pains all season. WIN

1x Kings -2.5 vs. Warriors – One team will play much harder this game and that is undoubtedly the Kings. Sacramento was eliminated by Golden State in painful fashion last spring and there is little doubt they will treat this game more seriously. Plus, Golden State is pretty limited without Draymond Green and Klay Thompson seems like a shell of himself. The Kings are also the better team. LOSS

Leans: D’Backs -1.5 (+230) L, FAU/Charlotte over 42.5 W, Nets +6.5 W, Blazers +2.5 L

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 26 (+1.0 unit)

1x Bucs/Bills under 43.5 – Buffalo is perhaps the most difficult team for me to handicap. We all know the ceiling is high but consistency is an issue. I refuse to overreact to what I last saw but they’ve played poorly in three straight games. Even though Josh Allen and the Bills offense can explode, I will side with the under. Tampa Bay is limited offensively, especially if Baker Mayfield plays hurt or misses the game. The Bucs defense should be able to slow down Buffalo a bit. WIN

Leans: 76ers +6.5 W, Suns/Lakers under 223.5 W, Syracuse/VT under 47 L

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 25 (-1.1 units)

1x Sam Houston State -3.5 vs. UTEP – Winless Sam Houston State was laying 5.5 points last week and they were unprepared for the situation. I actually think that experience will help them here. Plus, I think UTEP has a poor coach in Dana Dimel. I am fully prepared to feel like an idiot laying 3.5 points with an 0-7 team but it does feel like the right situation for the Bearkats to notch their first win. LOSS

Leans: Jacksonville State -8 W, Knicks +3 L, Timberwolves -1 L, Thunder -1 W, Mavs/Spurs over 229.5 W

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 24 (-1.1 units)

1x New Mexico St. / Louisiana Tech over 52 – I am expecting strong performances from both offenses. First off, the Aggies will look to run all day and they should be able to accomplish that against the Bulldogs. Louisiana Tech has some key injuries in the backfield so I assume Hank Bachmeier will have to throw early and often. Of course, that’s if he is healthy and suits up. If he doesn’t, well, the Aggies could hit this total by themselves. This number feels low, given all the moving parts. I think it could get wild. LOSS

Leans: Phillies -1.5 (+120) L, WKU +5 L, Nuggets -5 W, Suns +1 W

MONDAY, OCTOBER 23 (-2.13 units)

.5x 49ers -3.5 (1st Half) at Vikings and .5x 49ers -6.5 (-115) at Vikings – I like backing very good teams off a loss. San Francisco’s best is much better than Minnesota’s. However, I think the Vikes are better than they have demonstrated most of this season. Nonetheless, I think San Francisco is the play, although I dislike backing a team playing consecutive road games. So, I will split up my one unit between first half and game bets. LOSS

1x Phillies -1.5 runs (+115) vs. Diamondbacks – Aaron Nola has an ERA under 1 in three starts this postseason, including six shutout innings against Arizona in Game 2. He’s a reliable beast, and I am banking on his helping Philly punch its ticket to the World Series. The Diamondbacks are a wonderful story but I feel it ends on Monday. LOSS

Leans: Astros -125 L

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 22 (+1.7 units)

1x 6-point teaser: Bills -1.5 with Seahawks -2.5 (-130) – As I have expressed, the most effective use of a teaser leg is adjusting the NFL point spread through the numbers of 3, 6 and 7. This two-teamer allows you to do that. Buffalo obviously looked flat against the Giants last week but I expected some of that, given they had just returned from London and were facing a backup QB. However, the Patriots typically get their attention so I will back them to essentially win the game. As for Seattle, I expect a solid Seattle win (see below). For content, a two-team moneyline parlay would cost -171 so -130 (or better) at these spreads makes sense. LOSS

1x Steelers +3 at Rams – I am far from a Kenny Pickett supporter but getting the full field goal feels like value with Pittsburgh off a bye. The Steelers’ pass rush should disrupt Matthew Stafford enough and maybe they catch the Rams a bit drained, following an exhausting game with Philly and comeback win over Arizona. The crowd will obviously be filled with Steelers fans, for what that’s worth, and I am banking on coach Mike Tomlin having his team prepared and an offense ready to break through some early struggles. WIN

2x Seahawks -8.5 vs. Cardinals – Every year there is a subpar team or two that impresses fans and bettors with various covers and performances that resonate early in the season. Reality then sets in but the believers take forever to adjust, given first impressions last so long. Arizona is that team. They opened the season with near-upsets of the Commanders and Giants before beating the Cowboys. But now order is restored and opponents are making QB Joshua Dobbs look like the liability that he is. Meanwhile, Seattle is off a loss and should be ready to rock. The Seahawks play the role of bully as well as any team so I expect them to use the Cardinals as a slump-buster. WIN

Leans: Lions +3 L, Bucs -2.5 L, Packers -1.5 L, Chargers +5.5 L, Dolphins +2.5 L, Rangers/Astros under 8.5 (-105) L

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 21 (-1.3 units)

1x Ohio -16.5 vs. Western Michigan – This sure feels like a get-right spot for the Bobcats, who just had their five-game win streak snapped. QB Nathan Rourke was shaky in that loss but should feast on this poor Broncos defense. Western Michigan has lost five of six and has quarterback issues. Three different guys are getting time and none have secured the position. I envision a one-sided affair. LOSS

1x Wisconsin/Illinois under 40.5 – It’s always difficult to take under a total this low but the Badgers should lean on their run game all day, given QB Tanner Mordecai is out with an injury. Meanwhile, the Illini are a mess on offense and have been unable to generate much on that side of the ball. This has all the makings of a field-position game that bleeds clock. LOSS

1x Colorado State/UNLV over 61.5 – This has all the makings of a shootout but the one concern is a potential flat spot for the Rams, who won last week on a Hail Mary. However, that could also mean the defense is unfocused and allows a ton of points to a UNLV offense that averages nearly 40 points per game. In fact, the Rebels have covered every game. I have faith in this CSU offense to score enough points, given the respectable firepower. LOSS

2x Arizona State (+27.5) at Washington – This scheduling spot presents a great opportunity. Not only is ASU playing much better lately but it is a giant flat spot for the Huskies. Washington is off the monster win against Oregon and seemingly will have an empty tank against a team that is unlikely to generate much interest from a team with national title aspirations. Michael Penix Jr. is dynamic and obviously they could roll the Sun Devils but I have to fade them here. WIN

Leans: Pittsburgh +1 L, Penn State +5 L, FSU -14 W, Utah +6.5 W, UCLA/Stanford under 52 W, Phillies -130 W

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 20

Leans: Phillies -135 L, Temple +24 L

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 19 (-1.1 units)

1x Saints -1 vs. Jaguars – In a vacuum, I would probably bet Jacksonville but I doubt we get the Jags’ best performance. Here we are on a short week in Week 7 and they are pretty well-traveled. This has the makings of a clunky product and while New Orleans has issues, it’s hard to go into the Voodoo Dome and win. LOSS

Leans: Rice +3 W, Marshall +3.5 L, Phillies -1.5 (+120) L, Astros +100 W

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 18 (+4.0 units)

3x Aces/Liberty under 168.5 – I do not understand this number. I thought it would be in the neighborhood of 10 points lower, given that Las Vegas PG Chelsea Gray is out with an injury. She may not be as well known as MVPs A’ja Wilson and Breanna Stewart but she was the Finals MVP last year. She is the orchestrator of this potent offense. For the Aces to win, they will need to rely on their defense because their short-handed offense will not operate with the same efficiency. Wilson has guarded Stewart effectively this entire season and I do not see any reason that changes. The Aces may try to run a little more, even without Gray, but New York knows their path to victory is avoiding a track meet with the Aces. This bet only loses if one team catches fire from three-point land, and I am a little worried Sabrina Ionescu finds her touch, but I have to roll with this under. WIN

1x New Mexico State -3 at UTEP – This is a fade of UTEP coach Dana Dimel, who is as shaky as any coach outside of Mario Cristobal. Meanwhile, the Aggies are led by veteran Jerry Kill and should have a huge advantage on the headsets. I also think this squad is pretty decent, and that’s represented by their 3-1 mark in their last four games. The lone loss was a blown second-half lead at Hawaii, which is always a tough trip. I just have to grab the more polished and better coached team, especially when that is magnified on the difficulty of a short week. WIN

Leans: FIU +5.5 W, Astros +110 W

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 17 (-.1 unit)

1x Phillies -155 vs. Diamondbacks – Aaron Nola is so solid and the Phillies bats continue to deliver. Meanwhile, are we confident Merrill Kelly can handle the environment? He was excellent against the Dodgers in his lone playoff outing so far but he took the mound with a 6-0 lead. This will be a much different situation. I need to ride the hot team. WIN

1x Western Kentucky -7.5 at Jacksonville State – This line has gradually trickled up and crossed the key number of 7. There has not been an official word regarding Gamecocks QB Zion Webb. I would assume he misses this game but even if he does go, this Jacksonville State offense has serious limitations. The defense will show up but ultimately I think it’s too much offense for the Hilltoppers. LOSS

Leans: Middle Tennessee/Liberty over 56.5 W, So Miss/South Alabama under 52 L

MONDAY, OCTOBER 16 (+0 units)

1x Rangers -1.5 (+160) vs. Astros – The Rangers may never lose this postseason. While I say that jokingly, this sport does reward the hottest team and Texas sure seems to bear wearing that hat. They are healthy and the pitching has surpassed expectations. No better example of that than Nathan Eovaldi, who has been virtually unhittable in these playoffs, allowing one earned run in each outing so far. Houston has some dangerous bats but I’ll ride with the hot team at a very attractive plus-price on the reverse run line. LOSS

1x 2-leg 6-point teaser: Rams -1 with Chargers +7.5 (-130) – The Cardinals have already proven doubters wrong with one win and a few competent performances. However, Joshua Dobbs prevents them from having a higher ceiling. He is just so limited. As much as I like what I am seeing from this team and their rookie head coach, I do not think they have the chops to win on the road. The Rams have been solid and should win this game. Meanwhile, I think the Chargers win outright on Monday night but I really think there is strong value with them in a teaser at this number. WIN

Leans: Chargers +1.5 L, DAL/LAC under 51 W

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 15 (+3.0 units)

1x Bengals -2.5 (-115) vs. Seahawks – The Bengals seemed to find their offensive groove last week with Ja’Marr Chase catching three TD passes and Joe Burrow demonstrating improved health. Seattle has been impressive but this line seems out of whack. I feel like the right point spread should be around 4.5. The Seahawks might be legitimate but they have to handle their business in this game to prove it. WIN

1x Jets +7 (-115) vs. Eagles – This is a tough spot for Philly, although Sauce Gardner will miss this game. The Eagles are coming off perhaps their most complete win and it’s a consecutive road game. Meanwhile, the Jets are off a nice win and should have a strong performance. Zach Wilson is steadily improving. This number feels too high, and I actually think New York is a live ‘dog. WIN

1x Liberty +2.5 vs. Aces – Las Vegas is the better team and has completely controlled the series but I am banking on complacency, as well as the Liberty’s desperation. There is nothing more to it. As their coach said to the media, this is about pride and hunger. Sometimes you just have to ignore what you have seen and understand the situation calls for a certain wager. It is not guaranteed but this approach in these types of instances will win more often than it will lose. WIN

Leans: Panthers +14.5 L, Vikings/Bears over 43.5 L, Colts +4 L, Saints -1.5 L, Lions -3 W, Giants +15 W

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 14 (+1.9 units)

1x Purdue +18.5 vs. Ohio State – The Buckeyes escaped Maryland with a cover but the final score was extremely misleading. They just are not that impressive or explosive. The brand name has us waiting for them to restore their typical dominance but that may never come. Additionally, they have a monster game on deck next week with Penn State so I cannot image they are too focused on the Boilermakers. Purdue certainly has issues and is more than capable of getting blown out but this game has potential to get weird. LOSS

1x Purdue 1st Half Moneyline vs. Ohio State +410 – I think this has a decent shot to cash. It’s worth a play for me. LOSS

2x Utah -10.5 vs. Cal – This is my favorite play this weekend but I am a bit uneasy because sharp money drove down this number. However, sometimes you have to stick with your read and also acknowledge that respected money only backed the Bears at a higher number and not the current spread of -10.5. Frankly, I just do not think Cal has the maturity or composure to hang with Utah at Rice-Eccles. Although QB Cam Rising is still questionable, the Utes could deliver a dominating performance off a loss and bye. Additionally, Justin Wilcox’s signature is defense but this Cal unit allowed Washington and Oregon State each to score 50+ points. The Utes aren’t as potent but they should have enough firepower to cover 10.5 points. WIN

1x Oregon/Washington over 66.5 – In short, there are so many more ways to win this wager than lose it. Both quarterbacks, Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr., are dynamic and have big-play ability. Drives can certainly stall and maybe even turnovers lead to scoring droughts but both offenses are superior to the defenses. Statistically, the Ducks defense has posted some decent numbers but I think they are misleading because of weak competition. Colorado was extremely flat when Oregon shut them down and even Texas Tech had no issues putting up points. This has shootout written all over it. I particularly like over Washington’s team total, once it is posted. WIN

1x Virginia Tech -1.5 vs. Wake Forest – Sharp money has trickled in on the Hokies, and I agree with the steam. The offense seems to click much better since Kyron Drones took over QB duties and I am unsure Wake has the chops to hang for four quarters. They just lost a tough game at Clemson and now have a consecutive road game. The Demon Deacons have improved a bit but ultimately this is an unreliable and inconsistent team with only one solid performance. WIN

Leans: Rutgers -4.5 L, Washington -3 P, South Carolina -2.5 L, Kentucky -2.5 L, Iowa/Wisconsin under 35 W, Pittsburgh +7.5 W, Washington State -7.5 L, Notre Dame -2.5 W, UCLA/Oregon State under 54 L

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 13 (+0 units)

Leans: Tulane -4.5 W, Fresno St./Utah St. over 56.5 W, Stanford +12.5 W

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 12 (-1.1 units)

1x Broncos/Chiefs over 47.5 – Denver surprisingly has a defense that has allowed the most yards and points per game. Some of that is skewed because they allowed Miami to hang 70 points but the Broncos have still cashed the over in four of five games. The defense is bad. Also, in a couple recent meetings between these teams, Denver has committed to the run and tried to shorten the game, keeping Patrick Mahomes on the sideline. I think Sean Payton is too impatient and aggressive to adopt that approach. The offense has weapons and he wants to show off his abilities, especially after losing to Nathaniel Hackett last weekend. Obviously the Travis Kelce injury concerns me but I will still take the over. LOSS

Leans: Braves/Phillies over 8.5 L, West Virginia -3 L, SMU -12.5 W

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 11 (+.05 unit)

1x Aces/Liberty under 171.5 – This is essentially a must-win for New York and they know that defense has to be their focal point. Four Aces scored at least 19 points in Game 1 and that spells doom for the Liberty, if history repeats itself. New York will do what it can to slow down the pace, which is how it beat Las Vegas during the regular season. And I have confidence in the Aces defense. I think we sneak under the total. LOSS

1x Astros (+115) at Twins – There is no part of me that thinks the Twins are the better team. Houston has the swagger and poise, given its postseason experience, and I will continue to ride that. Jose Urquidy instills enough confidence for me to back Houston on the road. I’ll grab the small ‘dog price. WIN

Leans: Phillies -120 W, Dodgers -145 L, UTEP +2.5 W, New Mexico State -3.5 W

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 10 (+2.0 units)

1x Rangers (-140) vs. Orioles – Do not assume regression or that a baseball team will win just because it had a better record during the regular season. After all, Arizona has won the first two games against the Dodgers and the Phillies nearly grabbed that same lead over Atlanta. Right now, the Rangers are hitting well and getting enough pitching. I have to ride the hot hand because baseball is a weird sport, which is why it sees fewer championship favorites win it all than any other major sport, once the postseason begins. WIN

1x Middle Tennessee (1st Half, -2.5) vs. Louisiana Tech – I just cannot quit the Blue Raiders, despite already being burned twice. This time, I am going to back them in the first half because ultimately the second halves have burned me, for whatever reason. It’s so bad that a friend recently tweeted, “Does Middle Tennessee drink rubbing alcohol at halftime?”. Let’s hope that’s not the case and that they can handle the Bulldogs by halftime because backing this one-win team is getting painful – and expensive. WIN

Leans: Liberty/Jacksonville State over 56.5 L, Astros +115 W

MONDAY, OCTOBER 9 (-3.3 units)

3x Packers/Raiders over 45.5 – Both offenses should be fresh and ready to capitalize on the other’s suspect defense. Also, Jimmy Garoppolo returns for Las Vegas and that should make a huge difference. In their last game, rookie Aidan O’Connell held the ball way too long and that prevented more scoring. Both teams should be able to go up and down. LOSS

Leans: Phillies/Braves over 8 L, D’Backs/Dodgers over 8.5 W

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 8 (+.9 units)

1x Dolphins -12.5 vs. Giants – Typically it is unwise to lay double-digits in the NFL but this situation calls for it. Plus, the sharpest sportsbooks continue to move this number higher and higher. I have spoken to professional bettors who often back the ugly ‘dogs but they are staying away from the Giants. The offensive line is a mess, and the Dolphins are coming off a poor performance. All signs point to a lopsided outcome. WIN

1x Steelers +4.5 vs. Ravens – This number really confuses me but Pittsburgh also looked poor in its last game. I chalk up that loss to Houston to scheduling circumstances. The Steelers were coming off emotional primetime wins on Monday and Sunday nights. They had nothing left in the tank. I think we see a strong performance from their defense and Kenny Pickett does just enough to keep this inside the number. Frankly, Baltimore is not that great. Lamar Jackson has his flashes but they have issues just like every other team. The number feels too high. WIN

1x Falcons -2 vs. Texans – I think this is a great opportunity to buy low on Atlanta and sell high on Houston. I just expressed how I believe the Texans dominated Pittsburgh in their last game. C.J. Stroud still has a ways to go and the team now faces an Atlanta squad that is tough at home. Desmond Ridder leaves a lot to be desired but I like the rest of their roster. Getting Atlanta under a field goal feels like a discount. PUSH

1x Liberty/Aces under 171.5 – In their first meeting, the Liberty learned the hard way that they do not want to try to run with Las Vegas. In subsequent meetings, they intentionally slowed the pace and that is why we saw so many unders. Additionally, while Breanna Stewart is an offensive force, A’ja Wilson defends her extremely well and that disrupts the New York offense. All this points to an under, which is why the number has gradually trickled down this week. LOSS

Leans: Jaguars +5.5 W, Saints/Patriots under 39 W, Rams +4 L, Jets/Broncos over 43.5 W, 49ers -3.5 W

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 7 (-2.3 units)

1x Texas -5.5 vs. Oklahoma – Texas definitely has the superior defense, and I also think it can control the trenches on both sides of the ball. Many have used the ‘revenge card’ to back Oklahoma, given the 49-0 pounding last year. However, I disregard those narratives in rivalry games because my thought process is that the teams are already hyped. Are the Sooners really going to play harder because of last year’s result? So Texas will take this game lightly because they rolled OU last year? It just seems way too convenient. LOSS

1x North Carolina -9.5 vs. Syracuse – I maintain the market continues to undervalue UNC, and my guess is that it stems from Drake Maye only having five touchdown passes and the near-loss to Appalachian State. But over the past two weeks, the Tar Heels have demonstrated an ability to dominate these types of games. Additionally, I wonder how much is left in Syracuse’s tank. Last week the Orange had a chance to upset Clemson at home and remain undefeated but the Tigers controlled the game from the opening kick. WIN

2x Colorado State -3 at Utah State – The Rams opened the week as underdogs and are now favorites. I agree with the line move. I’ve been impressed with CSU in both victory and defeat. They’ve showed a lot of resilience and aptitude and thus I feel the Rams get the win and cover. The Aggies are pretty limited and at the same time, they are not a team Colorado State will take lightly. Frankly, that’s because CSU is not that good. I think Jay Norvell keeps his guys focused and they get the job done. LOSS

Leans: Maryland +19.5 L, Purdue/Iowa under 38.5 W, Kentucky +14.5 L, Minnesota +18.5 L, CSU/Utah St. over 62.5 W, Oregon St./Cal under 51.5 L

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 6

Lean: Oklahoma State +11, Illinois -3.5

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 5 (-2.2 units)

2x Commanders (-6) vs. Bears – Respected money has appeared on both sides but at different prices. This point spread reached seven points and sharp money backed the ugly underdog, Chicago. Professional money did lay 5.5 points too. Personally, I cannot back a team riding a 14-game skid that is coming off a demoralizing loss. I have to see the Bears execute in this situation before I believe it. Do I love Washington laying this many points? Of course not but I cannot back Chicago. The Bears are inept, and Justin Fields is not as good as some people have tried to make themselves believe. LOSS

Lean: Bears/Commanders over 44.5 W

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 4 (+.8 units)

1x Rays (-1.5, +130) vs. Rangers – Tampa turns to its ace in a must-win situation, and I want to back Zach Eflin. The Rangers offense is obviously more than capable of mashing anyone but this situation screams for the Rays to bounce back. Obviously you cannot blindly back a Game 2 home team off a loss but I do think Eflin is the right guy. Additionally, I have zero faith in Nathan Eovaldi. He’s had some big post-season performances but he struggled down the stretch this September and I truly believe his best days are behind him. I’ll back the Rays to get back in the series. LOSS

1x Rays team total over 4.5 runs (+110) – For all the reasons mentioned above, I believe the Tampa offense will break out against Eovaldi. If the Rangers offense produces and maybe even wins the game, then I at least want a wager that solely depends on the Rays to score some runs. LOSS

2x Phillies -1.5 (+140) vs. Marlins – Game 1 unfolded as I expected, and I do not anticipate Game 2 being much different. Aaron Nola is capable of duplicating Zack Wheeler’s five-hit performance and the Phillies bats can get the offense going. I know runs are typically limited in the playoffs but we also see occasional offensive explosions. At the risk of getting too cute, I will lay the run line for plus-money. WIN

Lean: Twins -140 W, D’Backs +110 W, Middle Tennessee -3.5 L, FIU +6.5 L

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 3 (+1.0 unit)

1x Marlins team total under 3.5 runs (-140)– Playoff baseball is a much different can of worms. Everything is magnified but Philly has experience from last season’s World Series run. Zack Wheeler shined in last year’s playoff opener with six shutout innings, and I am envisioning a similar performance against Miami. He started three games this year against the Marlins and allowed six earned in 18 innings. Runs should be at a premium. WIN

Lean: Rangers +130 W, Blue Jays/Twins over 7.5 L, D’Backs +150 W

MONDAY, OCTOBER 2 (-2.2 units)

2x Giants +2 vs. Seahawks – This is a must-win for New York and my gut tells me they get it done. The NFL season has so many ups and downs and a large reason for that is energy and emotion. Seattle is coming off back-to-back wins, including an impressive victory in Detroit. The Seahawks followed that up with a home win over Carolina. It’s a lot to ask for them to win a third straight, while facing a desperate Giants squad. LOSS

SUNDAY OCTOBER 1 (-.30 units)

1x 2-leg 6-point teaser: Dallas PK with Giants +8 (-130) – Dallas is much better than last week’s performance, and I think we get a strong showing. The Patriots are not awful but they also are not that good. They have a relatively low ceiling and I trust the Cowboys to win this game. Additionally, I think it’s a great spot to back the Giants. Seattle is off a couple nice wins but this will be a tough ask. Plus, we are getting over a touchdown with the teaser. LOSS

1x Chargers -6 vs. Raiders – This is a fade of what I perceive as a flat and fractured locker room. The decision by coach Josh McDaniels to kick a field goal late in last week’s loss was truly inexplicable, and DaVante Adams essentially criticized his coach. That was only what we saw and heard. Additionally, Jimmy Garoppolo will miss this game. I know the Chargers are also dealing with injuries and Brandon Staley is unreliable but I will lay the points. The Raiders are likely a mess and I do not like much else on the card. WIN

Lean: Vikings -4.5 W, Commanders +9.5 W, Dolphins +3 L, Cowboys -6 W, Jets +8.5 W

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 30 (+4.9 units)

1x Texas A&M -6 at Arkansas – On paper, even with the quarterback change, the Aggies should control this game and cover. I actually like the move to Max Johnson, as the offense has clicked. However, a monster home game with Alabama looms next week so I do have some concern the Aggies are caught looking ahead to that. Nonetheless, I am okay playing this for a unit. WIN

2x UNLV -10.5 vs. Hawaii – New coach Barry Odom has clearly changed the culture and this is now a respectable squad. I do not think much of Hawaii and while they’ve shown flashes at home, it is a much different situation stateside. UNLV has typically struggled in the favorite role but I believe in Odom. I expect a solid performance by the Rebels heading into their bye. WIN

1x LSU -2.5 at Ole Miss – This feels like Ole Miss could endure a bit of a hangover after losing at Alabama. The Tigers seem to have found their offensive groove and Brian Kelly is trustworthy in close games. Laying road chalk is never fun but I will take the bait. LOSS

1x Air Force -10.5 vs. San Diego State – This Aztecs defense is not the same caliber that we have seen in recent years. The Falcons are capable of bulldozing teams, and I think that happens in the altitude. San Diego State has limited offense and I anticipate a convincing home win. WIN

2x Alabama -14.5 at Mississippi State – The Tide have dominated this series in recent years. Specifically, Nick Saban’s defense has completely shut down the Bulldogs and so far they have not had much bite. They got crushed at home by LSU, and I expect a similar one-sided affair here. WIN

Lean: Cal -13 L, Maryland -14.5 W, Notre Dame/Duke under 52.5 W, Duke +5.5 L, Kansas/Texas over 61 L

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 29 (+.9 units)

1x New York Liberty -4 at Connecticut Sun – The Sun have outplayed the Liberty so far in the series so conventional wisdom would suggest they are a no-brainer as a home underdog. However, I believe in regression and thus expect Breanna Stewart to find her offensive game and for the Liberty to have their best game of the series. This is a gut play. WIN

1x Dallas Wings +6 vs. Las Vegas Aces – I expect a desperate Dallas team to play well and win this game outright. The Aces are undoubtedly the better team but I anticipate some apathy with a 2-0 series lead and the Wings to have more energy. WIN

1x Utah +3.5 at Oregon State – Sharp money moved this line from -2 to -3.5 and that does concern me a bit. However, it’s worth noting that respected bettors did not lay 3.5 and that’s the line I have. Kyle Whittingham and the Utes are physical and have the necessary toughness to win this game in a tough road environment. Utes QB Cam Rising may return from injury but overall, I have more confidence in Utah than I do Oregon State’s offense. LOSS

Lean: Aces/Wings over 174.5 L

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 28 (+3.0 units)

3x Lions -2 at Packers – I do not like this spot for Green Bay. They have had three draining games to start the season, and I wonder how much is left in the tank on a short week. Meanwhile, I feel Detroit has too much firepower for a Packers offense that can get stuck in a rut a bit too often. Professional money has trickled in all week on Detroit and moved this number from PK and there has not been any buyback on gameday. That means the Lions are the team the respect bettors are backing, and it lines up with my opinion. WIN

Lean: DET/GB over 45 W, Jordan Love under 227.5 passing yards L

TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 26 (-3.45 units)

3x New York Liberty (1st Half -4.5, -115) – I expect a desperate Liberty team to start strong and take care of business. Breanna Stewart is perhaps the league’s most talented offensive player so you have to assume she will regress after a horrendous shooting performance in the Game 1 loss. Plus, in NBA playoff betting, oddsmakers have learned to tax home teams off a loss by increasing the first-half line that is not commensurate with the game line. So, with a game line of 8.5 like we have here, you would have to lay 5.5 points. However, that is not the case in Game 2 and thus I feel we are getting some line value. LOSS

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 25 (+2.0 units)

1x Eagles (-5.5) at Bucs – As I have expressed in my win total plays, I believe in Tampa Bay this season. However, this is where the Bucs get a dose of reality. Philly is an elite team and the ball-hawking secondary should be able to intercept Baker Mayfield. Tampa is solid but the Eagles should control this game. WIN

1x Rams/Bengals under 43.5 – All signs point to Joe Burrow missing this game. Therefore I expect a rock fight and field-position battle. The Rams have surprised many so far and this is a game they can win but I do not want to fade a desperate Cincy team. So let’s back the defense. WIN

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 24 (+5.4 units)

3x Colts 1st Half +5.5 at Ravens – This is a classic “sandwich spot” for Baltimore, which is coming off a huge win at Cincinnati and has a trip to Cleveland next week. Plus, the Ravens tend to play down to inferior opponents. I think the Colts catch them flat, and I particularly like that Gardner Minshew is getting the start for Indy. The Colts have shown they are decent, giving Jacksonville a competitive game and dominating at Houston. The Ravens are also dealing with a ton of injuries. I am avoiding Baltimore in all my eliminator pools. WIN

2x Colts +8 at Ravens – All the reasons mentioned above apply, and I also think Minshew is more than capable of a backdoor cover, in case this game unfolds differently than I anticipate. WIN

3x Lions -3 (-115) vs. Falcons – One of the hardest things to do in betting is forget what you last saw. That’s because gambling entails prediction and you have to assume regression, which is a leap of faith. Thus, I anticipate Detroit to use last week’s upset as a wakeup call and to respond against a Falcons squad that is good but not great. The Lions should handle their business. WIN

2x Packers -1 vs. Saints – New Orleans is 2-0 but nothing has been that impressive. The offense has been mostly stagnant and for the most part the defense has looked stout but it has also faced Ryan Tannehill and a rookie in Bryce Young. Now they have back-to-back road games on a short week. That does not bode well for a team that I believe is poorly coached. Meanwhile, the Packers are off a loss in their home opener. I am a bit scared because I think the line should be 2.5 but I will cautiously back the Pack because I will hate myself if I do not and this play wins. PUSH

2x Seahawks -5 vs. Panthers – I have to fade the Panthers, even though I hate laying points with Seattle. Carolina is so limited and while Andy Dalton is more experienced than Bryce Young, he is still not an NFL starter. The Seahawks should be able to dominate this Panthers squad that put everything into their Monday night home game and came away with a disappointing loss. I don’t see how a trip to Seattle induces a strong performance. WIN

2x Raiders -2.5 vs. Steelers – This play revolves around the situation. Josh McDaniels and the Raiders need to win the home opener, while Pittsburgh is off a big win on a short week. Typically this scenario favors the home team. I also think Pittsburgh’s offense is much more limited than people realize. That’s because Kenny Pickett is not that good. Jimmy Garoppolo has his limitations too but I think the Raiders grind out a cover. LOSS

2x New York Liberty -8 vs. Connecticut Sun – I have backed the Sun in key spots but this is not one of them. I expect the three-point arc to the be the difference for the Liberty. New York consistently shoots well, while Connecticut is a mixed bag. The Liberty won all four regular season meetings, although one was a miracle comeback. Either way, it would take a lot of things to go right for the Sun to cover, while I believe there are many ways New York covers this number. LOSS

2x Wings/Aces over 174.5 – This should be a fun series, and I plan to play over the total in every game. Very few teams can run with Las Vegas but Dallas is one of them. Satou Sabally had a breakout season, developing her three-point shooting, and that has made this offense so potent. Her versatility stretches the defense and opens the paint for Tierra McCowan. Add that to Ogunbowale’s willingness to find open teammates and we should have a back-and-forth game. WIN

2x Dallas Wings +10.5 at Las Vegas Aces (SUNDAY) – It is always difficult fading the Aces, even when catching double-digits, but the Wings are a legit threat. They’ve already beaten Las Vegas this season, and the defending champs still have depth issues after losing Candace Parker. As for the specifics, Dallas routinely disrupts opponents because 6-foot-7 Tierra McCowan changes the game. This bet will likely be decided by Arike Ogunbowale. If she takes what the defense is giving her, she will find open teammates and the Wings cover. But if she shoots through double teams, Las Vegas likely rolls. LOSS

Lean: Bills -5.5 W, Dolphins -6 W, Cardinals +13 W

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 23 (-4.5 units)

3x Middle Tennessee -4 vs. Colorado State – This is solely a situational play. The Rams are coming off an emotional rivalry game that went to double-overtime. Now they hit the road and face a decent Middle Tennessee team that flirted with an upset at Missouri. This spread has trickled up a couple points for those reasons but I still think it’s a solid play at the current line. Simply, I do not believe in Jay Norvell’s ability to get his team to focus this week and be mature enough to compete on the road. LOSS

2x USC -34.5 at Arizona State – There is no fear of the fork. The winless Sun Devils are the Pac-12’s worst team and are also expected to have 10 key players out with injuries. The two quarterbacks that have started games this season are sidelined so Notre Dame transfer Drew Pyne will make his first start for ASU, even though he also got hurt in last week’s shutout loss to Fresno State. Meanwhile, the Trojans have national title aspirations and talented backups to help cover this spread. There is always a chance USC will look past ASU with Colorado looming next week but this team seemingly enjoys pummeling weak competition. LOSS

1x Maryland -7.5 at Michigan State – I will continue to fade Sparty because of the Mel Tucker turmoil but these lines are getting taxed pretty heavily. Additional concern stems from the fact that the Terps have looked horrible in the first half in each of the past two games. Fortunately, their second halves have been remarkable. The bottom line is that there is disarray right now in East Lansing so I will cautiously back Maryland laying over a touchdown on the road. WIN

Lean: FSU -2 W, Oregon -21 W, UCLA/UTAH over 52.5 L, Rutgers +24 P, Oregon St./Washington St. over 57.5 W, Notre Dame +3.5 W, Hawaii -3 P

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 22

Lean: Virginia +9.5 W

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 21 (+1.0 unit)

1x 49ers -10 (-120) vs. Giants – Now that this line has come down to 10, I have upgraded it from a “lean” to 1x. The concerns are valid. Brock Purdy is good but not great and the Niners can hit offensive lulls, just like every other team. But we all saw the Cowboys defensive line manhandle the Giants o-line, and I fully expect a similar performance against San Francisco’s stout front. Plus, the Giants seemingly got the win they needed on this road trip with the comeback against Arizona. New York will also be without Saquon Barkley. WIN

Lean: SF/NYG under 44.5 W

TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 19

Lean: Diamondbacks -115 W, Pirates +145 W, Brewers -105 W

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 18 (+1.0 unit)

1x Steelers (+2) vs. Browns – Overreacting to Week 1 can be a kiss of death for bettors. Just ask those that backed the Lions, Jaguars, Chargers and Raiders this weekend. I absolutely have to grab the points with the Steelers, who just happened to face an elite team in their season opener and looked overwhelmed. Cleveland is solid but I’ll grab the points at home. Plus, I would look to play Pitt in a teaser with a variety of teams next weekend. WIN

Lean: Saints/Panthers under 39.5 W

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 17 (-4.4 units)

1x Falcons -1.5 vs. Packers – Green Bay opened as the favorite but rightfully has shifted to the underdog. I subscribe to the thought that Atlanta has more explosiveness than what they showed in the opener. Atlanta did not have to do much to defeat a limited Carolina team. I agree with the line move and will side with the Falcons at home against an unproven Packers squad that will be without RB Aaron Jones. LOSS

1x Texans -1 vs. Colts – I was not all that surprised by Anthony Richardson’s moderate success, as I leaned to Indy and the points in the opener, but this feels like a cheap line. Going on the road against a Texans defense that showed some flashes should be a much more difficult ask than facing the Jags defense at home. Additionally, if Davis Mills gets the start over the injured C.J. Stroud, I would actually prefer that because Mills has more experience. LOSS

2x 49ers -7.5 at Rams – The situation of laying more than a touchdown in the second of back-to-back road games is typically a fool’s errand but I believe the talent gap between these two teams is that wide. Also, it is early enough in the season where I do think San Francisco is fresh. Matthew Stafford was impressive in the week one upset in Seattle but let’s pump the brakes on labeling the Rams a surprise playoff team. San Francisco should dominate this game. LOSS

Leans: Bengals -3 L, Jets +9 L, Broncos -3.5 L, Dolphins -2.5 W

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 16 (+14 units)

4x Colorado State/Colorado over 62.5 – Sometimes narratives can provide a good betting angle, and I think the bulletin board comments by Rams head coach Jay Norvell woke up the Buffaloes. They are huge favorites and could easily be caught in a flat spot but I think Deion Sanders’ reaction leads me to believe that he wants to bury CSU. The CU offense should be ready to face this bad defense and the Rams should be able to score a little too. WIN

1x Colorado St. / Colorado 1st Half over 32.5 – same reasons above but I do like this, in case the fourth quarter is uneventful in a blowout. WIN

2x Rutgers -7 vs. Virginia Tech – I like what I saw with Greg Schiano and the Scarlet Knights. And I have not liked what I have seen so far with the Hokies. Rutgers should control the trenches and cover this number, although I fully recognize I am catching the tail of serious line move. WIN

2x Duke -17 vs. Northwestern – The Blue Devils have had some time to process the upset over Clemson and hopefully they can produce in the favorite role. It’s a lot of points but Duke has some legit playmakers and athleticism. They should be able to manhandle Northwestern. WIN

3x Clemson -24.5 vs. Florida Atlantic – We are going to learn a lot about Dabo Swinney’s club. Their loss to Duke was bad but it was not as bad as the final score indicated. Miscues around the goal line cost them. This is a chance for the Tigers to bully another opponent and demonstrate the talent and size – and Dabo is unafraid to run up the score, which is key when you’re laying lumber. WIN

2x San Diego State +24.5 at Oregon State – I like the Beavers and believe they have a high ceiling but I think the Aztecs catch them at the right time. Oregon State opens Pac-12 play next week with a big game at Washington State. I think Brady Hoke gets his guys ready and his stingy defense shortens the game and keeps this game inside the number. WIN

Leans: Florida +6.5 W, Wyoming +29 W, Georgia/South Carolina over 54 L, Cincinnati -14 L

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 15 (+3.0 units)

3x Maryland -14.5 vs. Virginia – I really like this spot for the Terps. They are coming off a sluggish start, allowing two early touchdowns and trailing 14-9 at halftime to Charlotte. Maryland woke up in the second half with four straight touchdowns and nearly covered, if not for a backdoor 49ers TD. Either way, I expect Mike Locksley to have his guys ready in a visible television window on a Friday night. Meanwhile, UVA is weak on both sides of the ball. I expect a route. WIN

1x Maryland 1st Half -8.5 vs. Virginia – Aside from the rationale above, the Terps understand the importance of starting strong, following last week’s performance. LOSS

Lean: Mystics +9 at Liberty L

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 14

Lean: Vikings +6 at Eagles P

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 10 (+8.0 units)

2x Falcons -3.5 vs. Panthers – Laying the extra hook may come back to bite me but I truly believe there is a significant talent gap in this matchup. Atlanta spent a ton of money this offseason to improve the defense and while QB Desmond Ridder is mediocre, he is surrounded by legitimate weapons. Meanwhile, Bryce Young is undersized and has a limited offensive line. I do not believe Carolina can hang with Atlanta for four quarters. Young is talented with a high IQ but there is still a steep learning curve for rookie quarterbacks and they historically struggle when their NFL debut comes on the road. WIN

2x 6-point teaser: Commanders -1 and Jets +8.5 – The juice on teasers can get pricey but these are the numbers you want to incorporate: Teasing an NFL side through the most common margins of victory. I think Washington defeats Arizona and thus should cover the one point, and I like New York’s ability to keep Aaron Rodgers’ debut a one-score game or win outright. WIN

2x Dolphins +3 at Chargers – Nearly 15% of NFL games are decided by exactly three points, which makes this number incredibly important in NFL betting. These rosters are evenly matched and the Dolphins may have more fans in the stadium. Miami has a better coaching staff and has delivered on hype when Tua Tagovailoa is healthy. All those reasons explain why this spread has tremendous value on Miami. WIN

2x Eagles -3.5 at Patriots – The Patriots are becoming a little too trendy of a ‘dog. I understand that offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien is a giant upgrade and New England should be much more competent offensively. However, that does not offset its limited roster. Keep in mind the Pats only defeated one starting quarterback last season. I think Philly takes care of business. WIN

Leans – Ravens -9.5 W, Colts +4.5 L , Titans +3 W

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 9 (-4.6 units)

3x Wisconsin/Washington State over 58 – The Badgers have a new-look passing offense but needed some time to find their groove in last week’s win over Buffalo. Wiscy won’t have that luxury against the Cougars, who have an explosive offense and should be just fine in this matchup. QB Cameron Ward shined in the opener and Wazzu will look to pass early and often. I expect both teams to be ready for this power-five tilt in a fantastic atmosphere. LOSS

2x UNLV +38 at Michigan – This Rebels squad is much more competent under Barry Odom and should be able to keep this inside the number. QB Doug Brumfield has flashes of elite athleticism and is capable of making key plays against a defense of Michigan’s caliber. The Wolverines did not allow a touchdown last week but I get the sense they care more about getting through these games without injury rather than trying to light up the scoreboard. The Rebs will play hard until the final whistle and may even need the back door. WIN

2x Oregon/Texas Tech over 69 – There is really no reason these defenses should be able to slow down one another. The Red Raiders had a brutal game last week, blowing a 17-0 lead to lose in overtime at Wyoming. But this comes on their turf and the offense should find its rhythm after having to deal with the altitude and Cowboys’ physicality. The Ducks offense is humming with Bo Nix and we should see a track meet. LOSS

1x Jacksonville State +13.5 at Coastal Carolina – This is a fade of Coastal, who I think gets by on a little name recognition and the likeability of QB Grayson McCall. I do like his swagger with the mullet but the defense is the issue. I believe the Gamecocks are a live underdog with Rich Rodriguez and a rapid tempo. LOSS

Leans – Northwestern PK W, Colorado -2.5 W, Alabama -7.5 L, TEX/ALA under 53.5 L, Stanford +29 L, Iowa -3.5 W

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 7 (+3.0 units)

3x Jared Goff under 23.5 completions (-115) – Given the absence of Chiefs DT Chris Jones, I expect the Lions to try to dominate the time of possession with their run game. The allure of that is simultaneously keeping the ball away from Patrick Mahomes and shortening the game. I also think the likely absence of TE Travis Kelce means KC will have fewer big plays and thus reduce the total number of possessions in the game. All that points to fewer opportunities for Lions QB Jared Goff, who I think has limitations. WIN

Leans – Lions/Chiefs under 53 W

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 4 (+.8 units)

3x Phillies/Padres F5 over 4.5 (-140) – Rich Hill does not belong in the big leagues but I am going to fade him as long as he is. The lefty has pitched decently the last few outings but I think the Phillies lineup presents different challenges. They should be able to mash. I also am not a big fan of Taijuan Walker. He can escape outings by allowing a couple runs but San Diego has plenty of dangerous bats. I think the best way to bet this game is to isolate each starting pitcher. I also like an offering at Caesars of over 2.5 runs in the first three innings. WIN

2x Clemson -13 – Laying double-digits on the road typically is frowned upon but I think the Tigers get it done. With Cade Klubnik, Clemson finally has a quarterback that can lead them back to the CFP. Also, Dabo Swinney is unafraid to run up the score late so I am less nervous about a backdoor cover. As for Duke, I love where the program is headed but it is not quite on the same level as Clemson right now. Mike Elko and QB Riley Leonard should have a solid season but this is a lot to ask. LOSS

Leans: CWS/KC under 10 L

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 3 (-2.2 units)

2x LSU -2 – Aside from his ridiculously forced accent, Brian Kelly shined in his first season in Baton Rouge. He truly is an excellent coach and has demonstrated that at every school on his resume. The Tigers improved throughout the year, and I expect a much more polished season opener this time around. That excruciating and sloppy loss has to galvanize them for this rematch, much like Utah did to exact revenge against Florida this past week. Florida State has a stud in Jordan Travis and should be solid but I think LSU squeaks out a cover. LOSS

Leans: Northwestern +6 L

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 2 (-1.2 units)

2x TCU -20.5 at Colorado – By now you should know the buzz surrounding Deion Sanders and Colorado. It is not pretty. The public has backed the win total over but the sharp money is on the under. Plus, there is a lot of disgust amongst the coaching ranks towards Sanders and I would not be surprised if coaches run up the score. That is part of why I like TCU. A repeat of last season is not happening but Sonny Dykes has resurrected the program and the Horned Frogs should win this comfortably. LOSS

1x Nevada/USC over 66 – I’ll believe that USC’s defense has improved when I actually see it. The Trojans are obviously loaded on offense with Heisman Trophy favorite Caleb Williams leading the way at quarterback and plenty of other weapons. The Wolf Pack added some decent offensive players in the transfer portal and could generate some points, even if they come in garbage time. I am a little worried about the offensive line but if it is bad yet again, USC will turn that into points. WIN

Leans: SMU -20 W, Northern Illinois +8.5 W

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 1 (-2.2 units)

2x Stanford/Hawaii under 55.5 – This game has seen quite a bit of line movement on both the point spread and total. We missed the best numbers but I still like the under at the current price because Stanford seemingly has minimal weapons and Hawaii’s production in last week’s opener is misleading. I expect a tight game and thus both teams to play rather conservatively, especially because each coach is early in his tenure. This is a game they each needs, given the rest of their schedules. LOSS

Leans: Hawaii +3 L, Miami (OH) +16.5 L

THURSDAY, AUGUST 31 (+3.0 units)

3x Florida/ Utah 1st half under 22.5 – The total got steamed under on the news of Cam Rising’s unavailability but I still see value on the first half. Both teams now figure to want to lean on their defense and prevent their inexperienced quarterback from dangerous situations. In these types of scenarios, both coaches typically approach the game conservatively with the hopes of the opponent making the first big mistake. That’s why I prefer the first half under and also because we can see more risk-taking in the second half if one team trails by multiple scores. WIN

Leans: Florida +4.5 L

TUESDAY, AUGUST 29

Leans: . L.A. Sparks -4.5 vs. Chicago Sky L

MONDAY, AUGUST 28 (+5.0 units)

5x N.Y. Liberty -1 vs. Las Vegas Aces – The Liberty are catching the Aces at the perfect time, as Las Vegas wraps up a four-game road trip over seven days, which also included a trip to the White House. Following Saturday’s loss in Washington, Aces coach Beckie Hammon conceded her team seemed fatigued. Las Vegas did not score more than 18 points in any quarter against the Mystics, and I question how much energy is left in the tank. Meanwhile, the Liberty are playing their best ball. They just scored 111 points in a 35-point win at Minnesota. WIN

Leans: Braves F5 -1.5 (+100) W

SATURDAY, AUGUST 26 (+4.0 units)

2x each: Notre Dame 1st Half -11.5 (-105) vs. Navy and 1st Half over 24.5 – Sam Hartman will make his much-anticipated Notre Dame debut. The 24-year-old is as experienced and polished as they come so I do not anticipate any rust. Meanwhile, Navy will unveil a new coaching staff with an offense that is expected to pass more than we typically see from the Midshipmen. I feel that will be the key for trying to thread the needle with both the side and total. If Navy is able to score, then we should hit the over with ease. But if the Irish defense is too dominant, like we saw in last year’s meeting, then they will operate with short fields.

I prefer isolating the first half because the blowout potential could induce a sluggish fourth quarter. Thus, the first half should offer some line value. As for the side and total, I feel there is a much better chance of winning both than losing both, as I want to bank on Hartman being able to pick apart this defense. WIN and WIN

Leans: Braves F5 -1.5 (+100) W

THURSDAY, AUGUST 24

Leans: Falcons +5.5 L, Eagles +5 L, Lynx +7.5 W

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 10

TUESDAY, AUGUST 22 (+3.0 units)

3x Connecticut Sun 1st Quarter -1.5 at Chicago Sky – The Sun have lost three straight games and need to get back on track. I believe Chicago is the right opponent because of their inconsistency. If Connecticut imposes its defensive will and tenacity, the Sun should open with a solid lead. WIN

SATURDAY, AUGUST 19 (+3.7 units)

4x O’Malley/Sterling under 3.5 rounds (-150) – I believe O’Malley is a live underdog and can win this bout with his striking. However, it’s difficult to gauge his ability to survive five rounds because he has defeated so many inferior opponents so quickly. Sterling will seek a takedown and submission, which is +200 and a solid play if you like that side as opposed to the -260 moneyline. I just don’t see how Sterling can avoid O’Malley’s striking or O’Malley can avoid takedowns for 3.5 rounds so I will play the total. WIN

3x Raiders -4.5 at Rams – As we saw last weekend, Josh McDaniels is approaching this preseason with a serious vibe. The broadcast shared that he game-planned for the matchup and the team is thrilled with rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell. Meanwhile, Sean McVay has vocalized an intention to approach the preseason more seriously but that mindset has a ceiling. WIN

3x Jets -3.5 vs. Buccaneers – The Jets have strong quarterback depth with Zach Wilson and Tim Boyle. We saw that on display in last week’s comfortable win. The Bucs also showed flashes but I am backing a team that I feel has more offense. LOSS

FRIDAY, AUGUST 18 (-10.15 units)

5x Mercury +13 (-115) – this spread stuns me. The Mercury have underdelivered this season but I mostly chalk that up to injuries. At full strength, they are a respectable team. On top of that, they are catching the Liberty off two intense matchups with the defending champs. I also expect New York to sit some key players, particularly Breanna Stewart. I would not be all that surprised if Phoenix wins the game. LOSS

2x Mystics/Fever under 161 – Washington is a defensive-minded team and Indiana has a knack for finding scoring droughts. Ellena Delle Donne is expected to return from injury but will be on a minutes count. Shakira Austin has returned, which certainly bolsters the Washington defense. This just feels like too many points, especially for an Indiana squad that struggles mightily in second halves. LOSS

2x Panthers/Giants under 38.5 – Carolina can continue to make excuses for Bryce Young and an offense that was shut out in the preseason opener but I believe there will be growing pains. The Panthers have issues and he is not an overnight savior, if he eventually becomes one. Giants have nothing special for their preseason offense so let’s root for a snoozer. LOSS

LEANS: Reds +135 W, Nationals +170 W, Padres -175 W, Dodgers -145 L

THURSDAY, AUGUST 17 (+8.0 units)

5x Liberty/Aces under 175 – I really like this under and so does everyone I know and respect. Additionally, every recreational bettor I know in Las Vegas (yes, public bettors in Vegas do bet Aces games) is also firing on the under. Perhaps they – and we – are all falling victim to recency bias but the under is the only way I could play this. All three regular-season meetings have gone under but I am more focused on the last two. The Liberty won both because they made a conscious effort to slow the pace, recognizing they cannot run with Las Vegas. Additionally, Candace Parker only played the first meeting and she is out for the season. That is a key ingredient for the Aces, as she could facilitate scoring when the offense bogs down. WIN

3x Mets F5 -125 at Cardinals – I have to fade Adam Wainright, who has allowed 15 ER in just four innings over his last two starts. The 41-year-old is barely hanging on by a thread, regardless of his misplaced confidence. The Mets have enough good bats to handle this. I prefer the first five innings to isolate Wainright but I have no problem with the full game. WIN

LEANS: Browns +3.5 W, Dodgers -150 W7