DOUG’S BETTING CARD

Below are bets that I actually make. My approach entails aggregating conversations with extremely respected oddsmakers and bettors, along with my own handicapping. I want to share that insight and intel.

Sportsbooks prefer you wager solely on marquee games and make multiple parlays. I do not oblige. That may entail taking days off or passing on exciting matchups. Winning takes occasional discipline but the good opportunities will present themselves – if one is mildly patient.

MAIN BETS – Dollar amounts differ for each person but unit sizes (1x through 5x) are an effective method. 5x represents my largest and most confident wager. The log of every single wager, since we launched in mid-August, is located at the bottom of this page. Plus, this is the net result of each sport:

  • NFL: +12.1 units
  • NBA: -20.57 units
  • CFB: -4.3 units
  • MLB: +8.95 units
  • UFC: -5.3 units
  • WNBA: +3.0 units
  • MCBB: -1.95 units
  • WCBB: -5.0 units

LEANS – These represent mere opinions on other games where my conviction is not high enough to place a wager.

current plays

Tuesday, 3:56am ET

Please check back later on Tuesday for official plays

LEANS:

Earlier Futures plays:

Feb 7: 1x Jalen Brunson NBA Clutch Players of the Year +2600 (FanDuel, DraftKings)

Jan. 31: .2x Anthony Edwards NBA MVP 100-to-1 odds (DraftKings, FanDuel, Caesars)

Feb 1: .2x Jalen Brunson NBA MVP 150-to-1 odds (FanDuel)

Feb 1: .2x Kawhi Leonard NBA MVP 150-to-1 odds (FanDuel)

Jan. 9: .7x Hunter Dickinson Wooden Award winner +1000 (DraftKings)

Jan. 9: .3x Kyle Filipowski Wooden Award winner +4000 (FanDuel)

Jan. 9: 1x Zach Edey NO Wooden Award +230 (FanDuel)

Dec. 21: 2x Rudy Gobert NBA Defensive Player of the Year -115 (FanDuel)

Dec. 20: 1x Pistons under 9.5 wins adjusted total +900 (DraftKings)

completed plays / results

SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 12(-4.45 units)

4x Brock Purdy’s 1st completion under 10.5 yards (-125) (DraftKings) and 1.5x Purdy under 54.5 1st Quarter passing yards (DK) – The completion prop is my top play. The odds are based on regular season stats, and that is why there is an edge. Nothing is bigger than the Super Bowl. Thus, the nerves are unparalleled. So the regular season is essentially pointless. Super Bowl play-callers often opt for easy throws to ease their QB into the game and avoid mistakes. The last thing they want is a three-and-out or adrenaline to cause an errant throw that leads to an interception. Magnifying this logic is Purdy’s early shakiness in several big games – both playoff games and the regular season meeting with Baltimore. Frankly, Kyle Shanahan should be criticized if he calls anything but a couple easy throws early in the game. Obviously there is always a chance for a short throw that features broken tackles and many yards after the catch. But that is gambling. I am confident the first few throws will have low air yards. LOSS

1.5x Mahomes 1st completion under 8.5 yards – Same logic as above. It’s always in the best interest of a Super Bowl QB to simplify things early. Mahomes actually had the lowest air yardage of any starting quarterback this past regular season. I expect a pass near the line of scrimmage, particularly because it has the added bonus of nullifying an intense pass rush. WIN

1.5x 49ers longest punt over 57.5 yards (-125) (DraftKings) – Unlike San Francisco’s rookie place kicker, Mitch Wisnowsky is a reliable and talented punter. Couple that with perfect conditions in the Allegiant Stadium dome and a little bit of altitude, Wishnowsky should surpass this mark. The 49ers played in three domed stadiums this season and he surpassed the mark in two of them. The lone outlier was a 56-yarder at Arizona, when he only punted twice the entire game. The KC defense is stout and should force about four punts, especially if I think Purdy will struggle at times. LOSS

2x No punts will result in a touchback (-155) – Wisnowsky and Tommy Townsend are elite punters. Their punts resulted in a touchback in just six of 34 combined regular season games. Wisnowsky avoided a touchback in all five playoff punts. Townsend had one in all three postseason games but those all involved very cold weather. This game will be played indoors in ideal conditions. This moneyline should be -300. I am risking 3.1 units to win 2 units. WIN

.5x 49ers over 1.5 three-and-outs (-120) and .5x Chiefs over 1.5 three-and-outs (-120) – Each team has been known to hit some dry spells. Purdy has been shaky early in big games and KC is one of the lowest-scoring teams in the second half. The Super Bowl does tend to have fewer penalties so offenses may get away with holding and that would inhibit this bet. However, I still like it. WIN

.4x Christian McCaffrey to have most receiving yards +2300 (FanDuel) – The stars are aligned for this to cash. First off, this game does not feature a dominant WR like CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase that will garner double-digit targets. A handful of guys can post around 75 yards and that could be enough for the top mark, if both teams lean on their rushing attack like many believe they will. I also think Shanahan shines when he instills creativity, such as lining up McCaffrey as a wideout and Deebo Samuel in the backfield. CMC is their best player and they will ride him as much as they can. There is no pitch count. Other books also offer this in the range of +1800 to +2000. LOSS

.01x Harrison Butker 490-1 and .01 Jake Moody 370-1 Super Bowl MVP – this is ridiculous on a few fronts but these odds translate to a probability of .2% and .27%, respectively. A kicker has never won the MVP award but we also recently saw a safety on a Super Bowl’s first play that cashed insane odds. Both guys have huge legs and if the game unfolds a certain way, each kicker could play a critical role.  LOSS

LEANS: Chiefs +2 W, KC/SF under 47.5 W

SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 11 (+1.1 units)

3x Kansas St. / Oklahoma St. under 133.5 (women’s basketball) – The Wildcats own the conference’s top defense and also have a slow pace on offense. The under is 9-1 in their 10 conference games and not a single result has reached this point threshold. LOSS

.25x UConn -16 at Georgetown – The Hoyas lost by only 13 points at Storrs but they were extremely fortunate to stay attached in that game, catching every break and the Huskies lacked focus. I think G’Town gets rolled at home here. It’s not a big play but I just have to play this for a little. WIN

3x Nebraska -9.5 vs. Michigan – I am going to fade the Wolverines again. I beat their closing number on Wednesday by three points but somehow they beat Wisconsin. Strange results can happen in all sports. I am undeterred in believing the Michigan is weak. This games presents a situation where I think the Wolverines may still be celebrating that win and could be drilled in Lincoln. Nebraska is 14-1 at home this season and has some wins over quality teams (Purdue, Wisconsin, Northwestern). The Huskers are also off back-to-back losses so I expect a strong effort. WIN

1.5x Kentucky -6 vs. Gonzaga and 1x Kentucky -4 (added at 2:07pm ET) – The Zags are riding on the coattails of past success. This team is pretty limited by their lofty standards and when comparing them to contenders like UK. The Wildcats have sputtered at times and aren’t the most reliable team but asking the Bulldogs to hang around at Rupp Arena with an early tip for west coasters is a lot. LOSS

1x Utah Tech +4.5 vs. Cal Baptist – This game is off the grid but it pays the same, as we saw a couple days ago when Cal Baptist went under the total. The Lancers’ best player is their point guard and he will miss his second straight game. As for this matchup, both coaches know each other and this should come down to the wire. WIN

1x Weber State -13.5 vs. Sacramento State – This is a great revenge spot for the Wildcats, who lost the earlier meeting. Now they get the Hornets at home. Sac State is just 2-9 in conference play and has lost seven straight games, including a 28-point loss at Idaho State on Thursday. This is a tough turnaround and should be a loss by 20+ points. LOSS

3x St. Mary’s -18 at Portland – The Gaels have drilled the conference’s bottom-feeders, including Portland in the earlier meeting (43 points). The Pilots have been hit hard by injuries and just do not have the manpower to hang around in this game. WIN

1x Stanford -2 vs. USC – This line doesn’t make much sense but I will take the bait. The Trojans have lost seven of eight games. Injuries have derailed their season and the lone win came at home against lowly Oregon State. The Cardinal are coming off consecutive losses so I am expecting a good performance. WIN

LEANS: Brown -4.5 L, Long Beach State -14 L, Michigan St. -3.5 W, Florida +1.5 W, Houston/Cincinnati under 131.5 W, Rice +4 P, Northern Kentucky -13.5 L, Washington St. +3.5 W, Baylor +6.5 W

FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 10 (+.5 units)

.5x Nevada -3 vs. San Diego St. – Home court is extremely significant in the Mountain West. Nevada is 11-1 at home, while the Aztecs are 2-3 on the road in conference play – and those two wins came against lowly Air Force and San Jose St. San Diego St. is also off a road win so I expect them to be a bit relaxed and fatigued in the altitude. WIN

NFL AWARDS WAGERS GRADED, FEBRUARY 8 (+8.0 units)

Jan. 2: 5x Christian McCaffrey Offensive Player of the Year (-300) WIN

Jan. 2: .3x Tyreek Hill +3000 over 1,964.5 receiving yards for regular season (DraftKings) LOSS

Dec. 26: 2x Joe Flacco Comeback Player of the Year +400 (DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars) WIN

5x Damar Hamlin Comeback Player of the Year -140 LOSS

1x Baker Mayfield Comeback Player of the Year +1200 LOSS

Jan. 7: 2x Stefanski Coach of the Year -125 (FanDuel) WIN

Dec. 26: .5x DeMeco Ryans NFL Coach of the Year +1000 (Caesars) LOSS

Dec. 26: 1x Dak Prescott NFL MVP +2500 (Caesars) LOSS

Dec. 18: 2x Myles Garrett NFL Defensive Player of the Year +165 (DraftKings) WIN

THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 8 (+1.175 units)

2x Texas Arlington/Cal Baptist under 141 – this is a very limited offensive matchup. Everything I’m hearing is that the play is the under WIN

.5x Colorado -14.5 vs Arizona St. – the Sun Devils have lost six of seven and a trip to Boulder is not the prescription. CU is off consecutive losses and should roll here. LOSS

.25x Jazz 1st qtr +1.5 – Phoenix has a knack for starting slowly when coming off a big win. Essentially, they are bored. Opponents tend to jump on them early and they’re ambivalent. LOSS

LEANS: Nuggets -3.5 W, Utah Utes +5.5 L, Oregon State +9 W

WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 7 (-8.0 units)

3x Wisconsin -5.5 at Michigan – this line stinks to high heaven but I still have to lay it. The Wolverines are dead last in the Big Ten at 2-9 and 2-9 ATS. Wiscy is coming off consecutive losses so I have to imagine they will not look past an inferior opponent and instead will handle their business. The Wolverines are also 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games. I think this line is skewed because KenPom.com projects a margin of six but sometimes that works to the bettor’s advantage. Last weekend, the site had Houston with a five-point margin at Kansas and the Cougars opened as a two-point favorite. I think this line is off too. LOSS

2x Brandon Miller over 21.5 points (-125) – Charlotte is not hiding its intentions, which are to feed Miller the ball constantly and see what they have with the rookie. He’s had at least 19 shot attempts in the last five games and surpassed 21.5 points in all but one. Not only is all of that encouraging but facing Toronto is a plus. The total is 224, which is 10 points higher than when they faced the Bulls and that’s the one opponent where Miller went under 21.5 points (landed 21). Truthfully, I’d be surprised if he does not score at least 25 points. And you get the additional chance that Miles Bridges is traded before the game and that would lead to more usage for Miller. LOSS

2x Jonathan Kuminga over 19.5 points – It’s hard not to back the over, as he has scored at least 20 points in nine of the last 10 games. Steve Kerr is finally utilizing Kuminga and his athleticism jumps off the screen. With a total of 237.5 against a Philly team that wants to push pace without Joel Eimbiid, this figures to be a high-scoring game and that bodes well for Kuminga’s points. LOSS

LEANS: Klay Thompson under 16.5 points L

TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 6 (-.05 units)

.5x Suns -3.5 vs. Bucks and .5x Suns Team Total over 123.5 points – I only bet on Phoenix when they are at full strength and off a loss or facing a marquee opponent. We have that with the Bucks, who are wrapping up a five-game road trip. Milwaukee is only 1-3 to start this trip and the defense has not improved under new coach Doc Rivers. I do not see how the Bucks limit the firepower of Phoenix. .05x LOSS

LEANS: Mavs -3.5 W, Thunder -3 L, Oklahoma -2 W, Butler/UConn over 144.5 L, Utah State -5.5 L, Minnesota +3 W

MONDAY, FEBRUARY 5(+.74 units)

.5x Kansas/Kansas St. under 145.5 – the Jayhawks are coming off an emotional win against Houston and now have to travel for a rivalry game. This is a brutal spot for KU and while I do not think they cover, I think the under is the better play. I feel this game could hit a serious wall in the second half, given the emotion and intensity. WIN

.5x Miami/Virginia under 132 – UVA has been on a roll, winning six straight games and moving into second place in the ACC. This is all about Virginia dictating the game with its 11th-ranked defense and 144th-ranked offense. The Canes can be a tricky team to predict but I feel UVA will keep this on the lower-scoring side. Virginia has cashed the under in six straight games where the total is lined at 129 or higher. WIN

.25x Myles Bridges under 23.5 points vs. Lakers (-105) – Bridges has surpassed this mark just once in the last seven games, and that’s because he shot 6-13 from downtown in the lone over. That’s in large part to the emergence of rookie Brandon Miller, who clearly has become a focal point for the offense. Bridges has still managed a decent amount of shots lately but I also feel the Lakers’ length could bother him around the rim. LOSS

LEANS: Cavs -3 W, Mavs -3.5 W, Lakers -12.5 L, Warriors/Nets over 238 L, Clippers/Hawks over 243 W, Raptors +10.5 L

SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 4(+1.21 units)

1x Pacers 1st Half -6.5 at Hornets – Indiana has lost three straight games and should blast a bad Hornets squad that is down numerous key players, including LaMelo Ball. The Pacers are an explosive team and Charlotte does not offer much resistance at all. Indy is starting its main lineup too after battling some injuries. Rick Carlisle is an elite coach and should have Indy to play to get back on track. WIN

.75x T’Wolves 1st Half -4 vs. Rockets and .25x T’Wolves -7 – this is about backing a good team in Minnesota off a loss against a Rockets squad that has really struggled on the road. I think the edge sits with the first half line but Minnesota should cover over four quarters as well. .25xWIN

.75x Jazz 1Q Team Total over 30.5 (+100) vs. Bucks and .75x 1H Team Total over 61.5 (-105) – Utah has lost three straight games and should be ready to rock, facing a poor Milwaukee defense. The Bucks just got a big win in Dallas so I wonder how much tenacity they will play with off the tip. I like Utah to start strong and score with ease. .038xLOSS

LEANS: Heat +4.5 L, Blazers +14.5 W, Nebraska +9.5 W, Stanford +17.5 W

SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 3 (-1.53 units)

25x Knicks -3.5 vs. Lakers – This is a great spot to fade L.A., coming off a huge win in Boston without LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Both are listed as questionable tonight, as is OG Anunoby for the Knicks. Frankly, the Knicks are the league’s hottest team and I want to back them, rather than a team playing its fifth straight road game. LOSS

.5x Warriors +1.5 at Hawks – Both teams are coming off wins yesterday and Golden State had to travel from Memphis to Atlanta. I think the Hawks are shaky, which is illustrated with the league’s worst ATS mark at 13-35. As for the Warriors, I think they’ve turned the corner due to the recent emergence of Jonathan Kuminga, who has finally started to utilize his superior athleticism. That’s enabled Golden State to have more offensive balance, which frees up Steph Curry because defenses cannot just focus entirely on him. I do not think the market has caught up to Golden State’s new look. LOSS

.5x UNC -4.5 vs. Duke – sharp money has come on the Blue Devils, which is why the number peaked at 5.5. I think the Heels are the right side though. I don’t put too much stock in the loss at Georgia Tech, which is the only ACC game that UNC has not covered. Both teams are tough and obviously ranked in the top 10 but I will side with the home squad. WIN

1x Minnesota PK vs. Northwestern – the Gophers are taking sharp money because the Wildcats are coming off an excruciating loss at Purdue and their hot shooting is due for regression. And for what it’s worth, Minnesota is 17-3 ATS, which is the nation’s best record. Perhaps the market just has not assessed this team correctly. WIN

2x Houston/Kansas under 134.5 – This number feels incredibly high. The Cougars have the nation’s top-ranked defense, according to KenPom. Kansas also lacks depth so I think Houston will wear them out and the pace should come to a halt. Plus, with the magnitude of this game, I also expect possessions to be very measured the final ten minutes. Kansas also has a solid defense (ranked 22nd). However, both offense are ranked in the 20’s but I still think the other variables will ensure a lower-scoring game. LOSS

LEANS: UConn -3 W, West Virginia +7 L, Louisville +5.5 W, San Diego +13 W, UC Davis -9.5 L, UCLA +2.5 W, USC -9.5 W, UNLV -9.5 W

FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 2 (-1.10 units)

.75x Iowa -5 over Ohio State (-120) – This Buckeyes team is headed in the wrong direction, having lost six of seven. Head coach Chris Holtmann may not make it through the end of the season. Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes are tough at home and I think they get back on track with a spirited effort, given they have lost three of four. LOSS

1.5x Hawks 1st Quarter Team Total over 31.5 +100 vs. Suns – Phoenix is off a big win and that typically means a lethargic start to their next game. That’s been the case since the big three has returned and figured out what works for them. They are pretty apathetic and want the playoffs to start. So I think Atlanta will score plenty but I have no faith in their ability to stop the Suns’ firepower. WIN

1x Kings 1st Quarter Team Total over 32.5 at Pacers (-105) – Because I apparently like pain, I am going to try this wager again. I think Sacramento has the offense to light up Indy’s poor defense. The Pacers are off a big game at the Knicks last night so I think Sacto can jump on them. I also am unsure who exactly will play for Indy, given the uncertain status of Tyrese Haliburton and a couple others, so I will focus on the team total. WIN

.5x Hornets 1st Quarter +5.5 vs. Thunder (-115) – This is a straight fade of Oklahoma City, which is coming off a big win over the defending champs. OKC has demonstrated an inability to approach games against inferior competition the right way so I think 5.5 is way too many points for the first quarter. LOSS

1x Warriors 1st Quarter -2.5 and 1x 1st Quarter Team Total over 28.5 points – I think this is a great spot for Golden State. The Warriors lost the last time they played in Memphis last month and faced this limited lineup. The revenge angle is a good one and the Grizz played last night. Plus, in addition to all their expected injuries, Luke Kennard may miss this game. The Warriors should have the right mindset to jump on Memphis from the start. LOSS

LEANS: Heat -8 P, Pistons +12 W, Warriors -8.5 W, Spurs +8.5 W, Magic +6.5 W, Blazers +12.5 W, Butler +11 W, Nevada -11.5 W

THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 1 (+.53 units)

1x Lakers/Celtics under 239 – this feels like an astronomically high number with L.A. missing both LeBron James and Anthony Davis. The Lakers may try to push the pace and score before Boston can set up its defense but I doubt they have the horses to succeed. Plus, Boston’s offense may not play with the same urgency, given the lack of Lakers starpower. This is what typically happens in these games, much like we saw on Wednesday when the shorthanded Mavs faced the Timberwolves. WIN

.5x D’Angelo Russell over 3.5 Rebounds (+125) – The rationale is pretty simple. With LeBron James and Anthony Davis missing this game, he will have high usage. With the increased responsibility and minutes, Russell will be more engaged and play with more energy. We have no baseline for this specific lineup because it’s the first time LeBron and AD have missed the same game this season but Russell has grabbed at least three rebounds in every game LeBron has missed. Plus, he’s taking on more responsibility of late. WIN

1x Jazz -5 vs. Sixers – Philly has lost four straight games on this road trip and now hits the altitude in Utah. The Jazz are off consecutive losses but this is the right time to back them. They have turned the corner since inserting Colin Sexton into the starting lineup and their recent losses are more attributed to quality competition. The Sixers are without Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey is listed as questionable. This does have all the makings of a convincing Utah win. LOSS

LEANS: Cavs -8.5 L, Pacers/Knicks under 235 W, Wisconsin -1 L, Cleveland St. -7.5 W, Cleveland St/Detroit Mercy over 145 L

WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 3(+2.93 units)

4x Indiana/Maryland under 151.5 and 3x Indiana -5.5 (women’s basketball) – The Terps are really struggling right now (0-4 ATS in last four games) and their leader in points and assists, Shyanne Sellers, will miss this game. There does not seem to be anyone who can guard Indiana’s McKenzie Holmes so I’m laying it. 1.4x LOSS

4x Penn State -3.5 at Minnesota (women’s basketball) – This is the Gophers’ first game without Mara Braun, who leads the team in minutes, shot attempts and points. The Nittany Lions are playing extremely well since activating Virginia Tech transfer Ashley Owuso and the market has yet to catch up. WIN

.5x Virginia -13 vs. Notre Dame and .5x under 114 – This will be a gross game but I still think UVA handles their business. The total is ridiculously low but that’s what we get with these two teams. The Irish have gone under in 15 of their 20 games and will struggle against this Virginia defense that ranks seventh in KenPom. The Irish offense ranks 315th, which is amazingly awful. Covering a double-digit spread and hitting the under 114 sounds absurd until the game starts. LOSS

.5x Kentucky -7.5 vs. Florida – We missed the best number of 6.5 but I still the Wildcats cover. They had an impressive second half in Gainesville in a game where the Gators probably could not have played any better. I also like how U.K. responded in the second half of their last game. After losing to South Carolina a week ago, I feel the Cats recognize they cannot mess around with inferior opponents. LOSS

.25x Auburn -18.5 vs. Vanderbilt and .25x 1st Half -10.5 – The Tigers are off back-to-back losses and now return home where they are undefeated. This is a pretty simple handicap. I expect them to explode out of the gates but also should run away with this. .025xLOSS

.5x New Mexico -10.5 vs. Boise State – the Lobos are 9-1 ATS at home and there may be a tax to back them right now but I still think it’s worth it. They have trucking most teams at The Pit and it probably happens here. The Broncos will do their best to slow down the pace and avoid the blowout but I am unsure they have the capability to do that. LOSS

1x Mavs 1st Quarter +4 at T’Wolves – Dallas is playing with a shell of its regular roster, given Luke Doncic, Kyrie Irving and others will miss this game. What typically happens is the opponent will lack the necessary intensity and the reserves will play with much more energy. I think we see that with the Mavericks, given Minnesota is off a monster win at the Thunder. WIN

.5x Nets 1st Quarter +1 vs. Suns – Since their main three stars started playing together, Phoenix has been a slow-starting team when coming off wins. However, there will be a little emotion tonight with Kevin Durant playing his first game back in Brooklyn so I have a little caution but I still the Nets have the firepower to cover this. I think this is the right play. WIN

.25x Blazers 1st Quarter Team Total over 27.5 and 2nd quarter Team Total over 28.5 – the building should have unique energy with Damian Lillard returning to Portland for the first time since his offseason trade. I think the Blazers will have a huge effort and they actually do have a decent lineup at full strength. I also think they’ve been playing quite well lately. So given Milwaukee’s suspect defense, I trust Portland’s offense more than anything. WIN

LEANS: Baylor -3.5 W, Clippers/Wizards over 235.5 L, Heat -2.5 W, UConn -13 L, Pistons/Cavs over 231.5 W, Pelicans +2 W, Spurs +6 L

TUESDAY, JANUARY 30 (+1.83 units)

.75x Colorado State -2.5 vs. San Diego State – like most conferences, it’s tough to win on the road. That difficulty is amplified with the altitude in the Mountain West. The Rams have lost two straight but now return home, where they are tough. Meanwhile, the Aztecs already have lost at New Mexico and Boise State so they certainly are not the same away from home. WIN

1x Warriors -3.5 vs. Sixers – This is a bit of a gamble, as Joel Embiid is a game-time decision for Philly. He’s nursing a legitimate injury so there is no guarantee he is the MVP version of himself if he does play. Plus, Tyrese Maxey will sit out so that’s a giant win for Golden State. I think the Warriors are starting to figure out some things, now that Draymond Green is back and Jonathan Kuminga is finding himself. It’s been a long road trip for Philly, which has lost three straight. They’re also playing the second night of back-to-backs so I’ll roll with the home team. WIN

.5x Georgia Tech +8.5 vs. North Carolina and .5x Georgia Tech 1H +4.5 – We are missing the best of the number but it still feels like the right side. UNC has won all but one conference game by double digits and that came this past weekend. The market might finally have caught up to the Heels. Plus, UNC has Duke on deck so this could be a classic lookahead spot, and I will break up the play between first half and game. WIN

.5x South Carolina +14 at Tennessee and .5x 1H +7.5 and .75x over 135.5 – Similar mindset as Georgia Tech. The Vols have Kentucky on Saturday so maybe the Gamecocks catch them looking ahead. I also like the idea of breaking up the play because U.T. can have scoring lulls and maybe we gain some line value in that regard. I also feel the over is a decent play, given all the factors mentioned above. If Tennessee’s offense is clicking and South Carolina pushes pace to avoid the Vols’ halfcourt defense, we should cash the over. .175x WIN

1x Kansas State -2.5 vs. Oklahoma – Both teams are coming off consecutive losses but the Sooners lost both at home. Now they hit the road in a tough spot. Ultimately, this is about an OU team that is seemingly fading and the Wildcats are really tough at home. LOSS

LEANS: Pacers +8 W, Lakers +6.5 L, Knicks -4.5 W, Raptors +6.5 W

MONDAY, JANUARY 29 (-2.10 units)

.5 Celtics 1Q -2.5 over Pelicans, .5x Celtics 1H -4, and 1x 1H Team Total over 59.5 (+100) – Boston is coming off a home beatdown to the Clippers. The Celtics have now lost consecutive home games after starting the season undefeated. I expect a monster effort, even without Kristaps Porzingis. I realize New Orleans is coming off back-to-back blowout losses but I am unsure this team has the goods to respond. If so, I still like Boston’s ability to score points, which is why I am backing the team total. LOSS

LEANS: Knicks -9 W, Celtics -8 L, Jazz -1 L, Spurs -3.5 L, Lakers -1 L, Thunder -2.5 L, Grizzlies +10 W, Magic +4.5 W, Nuggets -3.5 W, Sixers -8.5 L, Duke -3.5 W, Texas +5 W

SUNDAY, JANUARY 28 (-2.48 units)

1x Moneyline Parlay: Ravens and 49ers (-110) – It’s not the sharpest wager for Sunday but it gives you action on both games. I am unwilling to lay points against Patrick Mahomes, particularly more than a field goal, but I do think the Ravens get the win. They are healthier and have a wide range of offensive weapons. I also do not think Detroit has the right ingredients to beat San Francisco. I could be wrong but I think the Niners have a big day. LOSS

1x Brock Purdy over 275.5 passing yards – The Detroit defense has been a leaky unit, allowing at least 345 passing yards in five straight games. Purdy is not a gunslinger but that is Detroit’s vulnerability, and I expect Kyle Shanahan to exploit it and utilize all his weapons. LOSS

.25x George Kittle over 58.5 receiving yards – For the same reasons mentioned above, the 49ers will attack the Lions through the air. I expect Kittle to be a key weapon and he is a beast with the ball, racking up yards after the catch. The short and intermediate throws are a great way to neutralize Detroit’s pass rush, and that is Kittle’s wheelhouse. LOSS

LEANS: Suns -1.5 L, Hawks -6.5 L, Blazers +7.5 L, Nevada +8.5 L

SATURDAY, JANUARY 27 (+.4 units)

1x Nets 1st Half -2 vs. Rockets – Brooklyn is 2-12 in its last 14 games and a large reason for that is collapses down the stretch. I also think we get a stronger start, after Houston cruised to a blowout win in Charlotte last night. For whatever reason, the Rockets are much worse on the road (5-15 as opposed to 16-8 at home). Both teams are well-coached so I do not see the advantage that Houston typically has with Ime Udoka. I think the first-half spot favors Brooklyn. WIN

.5x Clippers +7 at Celtics – Boston is scary when the offense is clicking, as they rank first in efficiency and three-point attempts per game. However, the Clippers are super talented since the midseason acquisition for James Harden and can hang with the Celtics offensively. Defense is another story but this feels like too many points, especially with Kristaps Porzingis missing this game. WIN

1x Kentucky -6 at Arkansas – Conventional wisdom suggests Eric Musselman will turn this Arkansas season around but I am unsure it happens. The Razorbacks are 1-5 in conference play and all five losses have come by double digits. I think we see a blowout with U.K. getting back on track, following its blowout loss at South Carolina. I am not crazy about the back-to-back road games for the Wildcats but I think they have too much firepower for the Hogs. PUSH

.5x Texas A&M -8 vs. Ole Miss and .5x Texas A&M 1st Half -4 – The Rebels have been trucked in their two conference road games and it seems as though we are headed for a third. Ole Miss is coming off a feel-good blowout win over Arkansas and I believe it is ripe for a convincing loss. In a perfect scenario, the Aggies would be off a loss but I am still willing to back them  against an inferior opponent. LOSS

LEANS: Nets -4 L, Pelicans +5 L, Lakers +1.5 W, Kings -4 W, Oregon +4, UCLA/USC under 134 W, Utah PK L, UNLV -3.5 W, Pacific +25 W

Doug’s Betting Card – January 2024

Doug’s Betting Card – December 2023

Doug’s Betting Card – November 2023

Doug’s Betting Card – October 2023

Doug’s Betting Card – September 2023

Doug’s Betting Card – August 2023