Below are bets that I actually make. My approach entails aggregating conversations with extremely respected oddsmakers and bettors, along with my own handicapping. I want to share that insight and intel.
Sportsbooks prefer you wager solely on marquee games and make multiple parlays. I do not oblige. That may entail taking days off or passing on exciting matchups. Winning takes occasional discipline but the good opportunities will present themselves – if one is mildly patient.
MAIN BETS – Dollar amounts differ for each person but unit sizes (1x through 5x) are an effective method. 5x represents my largest and most confident wager.
LEANS – These represent mere opinions on other games where my conviction is not high enough to place a wager.
completed plays / results
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 30 (+1.0 units)
1x Pacers/Heat over 238.5 – I am back on this train, following just their second under in 16 games. It was a lethargic performance as a double-digit favorite that perhaps was derailed by a looming trip to South Beach. Either way, Indy shot just 24.2% from distance in an outlier performance and lost outright. I anticipate a professional approach tonight. WIN
LEANS: Knicks -14.5 L, Nets -8.5 L, Bucks -8.5 L, Lakers +6 L, Jazz +11 P, Warriors -4 W, Liberty +7.5 L, UC Riverside +17 W
WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 29 (+3.8 units)
2x Tennessee/UNC under 145 – This feels like an extremely high number for a game involving Tennessee. The Vols rank 167th in offensive efficiency and 12th on the defensive side. They are extremely limited with playmakers and scorers and I believe they’re just fine with that. This is how they approach games. Carolina is not a lockdown defense but it does rank 50th in efficiency, which should pose enough of a problem for the U.T. offense. LOSS
2x Lakers -7.5 at Pistons – After losing by 40+ points, the Lakers should have a strong effort. And when you’re facing a team like Detroit, that’s typically all that is needed. The Lakers this season have a knack for beating up on the bad teams and racking up wins against inferior opponents. This should be another example of that. WIN
1x Clippers 1Q -.5, 1x Clippers 1H -1 and 2x Clippers -2 – This spot screams for a bet on the Clippers. Now, they certainly have issues and I would not be that stunned if they lost but I would be surprised. So as much as I hate backing this Clippers team, successful wagering entails anticipating more than reacting. The Kings are off a huge comeback win at Golden State, which is their current rival and it carried in-season tournament implications. Meanwhile, the Clippers are off perhaps their worst loss this season, losing at home to Denver without its three best players. I expect a strong start from the Clips. WIN
LEANS: Magic -10 W, Raptors +2.5 W, Jazz +4.5 L, Nuggets -9 W, Virginia -3.5 W, Colorado State -2.5 W, Arkansas +4.5 W, Virginia Tech +9 L, USC -17.5 W
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 28 (-1.1 units)
1x Rockets +4 at Mavericks – Houston is a much better team than anyone expected, and it really starts with their defense. The Rockets rank third in defensive efficiency, which has helped them post a 10-3-1 ATS record. Dallas still has massive defensive issues, ranking seventh-worst. So after a solid start, the Mavs have come back to earth with three losses in their last four games. LOSS
LEANS: Bucks/Heat under 228.5 L, Hawks +4 L, Timberwolves -3 P, Kings -1.5 L
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 27 (-5.5 units)
1x Blazers/Pacers over 240.5 – At some point this trend has to subside but I also think the style enables Indy’s opponents to perform above their metrics. That is why the Pacers have cashed the over in 14 of 15 games. Indiana forces teams to adjust to their style and frankly they’re probably thrilled to participate in that kind of game. LOSS
1x Pacers -12 vs. Blazers – This has blowout written all over it. Give Portland credit for leading Milwaukee by 26 points on Sunday but the Bucks rallied for the win. Against focused opponents, the Blazers are overmatched. I think we get a one-sided game. LOSS
3x Pelicans -5.5 at Jazz – This is a great spot to back New Orleans. These two teams just played on Saturday and Utah rallied in the fourth quarter for a win. Lauri Markkanen is out again but Jordan Clarkson and Zion Williamson are expected to play. New Orleans is a significantly better team and I expect a great effort. And the altitude should not be an issue, since the Pelicans have been in Salt Lake City a few days. LOSS
LEANS: Bears/Vikings over 43.5 L, Sixers -5 W, Nuggets/Clippers under 219 W
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 26 (+.8 units)
1x Jaguars 1.5 at Texans – Respected money has arrived on Jacksonville, as it typically plays the role of contrarian. C.J. Stroud and the Texans have been on a surprising roll but teams do not typically sustain that type of success over several weeks. WIN
1x Steelers/Bengals under 36 and 1x 1st Half under 17.5 – The rationale is pretty obvious. Cincy is without Joe Burrow and Pittsburgh always finds itself in low-scoring games. The Steelers are 8-2 to the under this season, as oddsmakers cannot seem to capture Mike Tomlin’s approach. He has a limited quarterback and plays very conservatively. I think the Bengals will do the same, particularly in the first half. WIN
1x Browns/Broncos under 37 and 1x 1st Half under 17.5 – Cleveland’s offense just isn’t the same with rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson. He did some nice things last weekend but this is his first road game. I do not expect that much production. As for Denver, their woes are self-explanatory. I expect Cleveland to muck this up and force the Broncos offense into difficult situations. LOSS
2x Bills +3 at Eagles – Philly owns the league’s best record but they certainly do not look as dominant as they did this time last year. Sharp money arrived on Buffalo +3.5 but I still think this is the right side at this price. The Eagles secondary is not as dominant and Josh Allen should be able to find success. PUSH
LEANS: Titans -3.5 W, Ravens -3 W, Raiders +8.5 L, Suns/Knicks under 219.5 L, Nuggets -11.5 W
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 25 (+3.5 units)
2x Pelicans/Jazz under 226 – Zion Williamson, Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson will all miss this game. Obviously oddsmakers know that and have adjusted the odds but I do not think they moved the total enough. The Jazz figure to have massive limitations on offense. I’d normally want to bet New Orleans laying a short number but I hate the situational spot, as they are coming off a big win at the Clippers. WIN
2x Mavericks/Clippers over 236 – This wager is about Dallas. The Mavs rank third in offensive efficiency and bottom ten in defensive. They push the pace and force teams to adapt to their style. The Clippers don’t exactly lock down on defense, as New Orleans just showed on Friday night. These two teams faced each other two weeks ago and combined for 270 points. James Harden had just joined L.A. but things haven’t improved much. LOSS
1x Jayden Daniels over 82.5 rushing yards and 1x over 2.5 passing TD (-160) – This is his final game before Heisman votes are tallied, given LSU will not play over championship weekend. I fully expect the coaching staff to play him the entire game and look to pad his stats. His dynamic ability should be on full display. WIN
1x LSU team total over 40.5 points – For the reasons mentioned above, the Tigers want to score points. However, I do not trust their defense and that’s why their games have gone over the total in all but one game. Sharp money arrived on LSU to move the point spread from 11 to 13 but that’s because team total limits are not that high. For one unit, I think that’s the wiser play. WIN
3x Kentucky +7.5 at Louisville – I realize this is a rivalry game but part of me wonders if Louisville is looking ahead to next week’s ACC title game. They already clinched a spot, following last week’s win at Miami and celebrated accordingly. They now face an SEC opponent that has lost five of the past six games. I think the Wildcats will be ready and they’re catching a lot of points. WIN
1x UNLV -2.5 vs. San Jose State – The Rebels own the nation’s best record at 10-1 ATS. Barry Odom has done an incredible job. Additionally, UNLV has played well in games with magnitude and that is certainly the case here. The Rebs can play for the Mountain West title if they win this game, and I expect a solid performance. Meanwhile, the Spartans have been a shaky road team and also lack a dynamic passing game. This number feels short. LOSS
1x Alabama -13.5 at Auburn – Obviously the Tigers were looking ahead to the Iron Bowl when they lost to New Mexico State last weekend. A flat performance is understandable but at some point you have to flip the switch and beat an inferior team. They did not and they’ve been a disappointment all season. Meanwhile, the Tide seemingly improve every single week and the offense really seems to be clicking. LOSS
1x Utah -20.5 vs. Colorado – All signs point to Buffaloes QB Shedeur Sanders missing this game with an injury. CU is already in a spiral, having lost five straight games, and I think this game can get away from them. The Utes have a knack for burying teams that are overmatched and this feels like one of those games. LOSS
1x Wisconsin -2.5 at Minnesota – This will be a painful watch but I think the Badgers take care of business. The Gophers have been limping to the finish line and I was impressed with Wisconsin’s win last week. You cannot bet a lot on a poor team like Wiscy but I feel comfortable laying points on the road when Minnesota is the opponent. WIN
LEANS: Ohio State/Michigan under 46.5 L, NIU/Kent St. under 44.5 L, LSU -13 L, San Jose St./UNLV over 59.5 W, Arizona -12 W, Maryland/Rutgers under 44.5 L, FSU/Florida under 49.5 W, Baylor +11.5 W, Hawai’i +5.5 W
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 24 (-1.6 units)
3x Suns -6.5 at Grizzlies – Not only is Memphis among the worst teams but this game impacts the in-season tournament. Much like the Suns against Portland in their last game, Phoenix is prioritizing score differential. Against the Blazers, Frank Vogel played his starters in the final minutes of a double-digit game, while Portland has substituted reserves. WIN
1x Pistons/Pacers over 243.5 – I cannot get off the train but I do have concerns about the Pistons maintaining pace. However, Indiana has cashed the over in 13 of 14 because of their aggressive offensive mindset and I still wonder if the betting market can account for their influence on a game’s tempo and vibe. WIN
2x Nebraska -2.5 vs. Iowa – Professional money has moved this number from PK, and I agree with the steam. Nebraska needs this win to become bowl-eligible and the Hawkeyes are already locked into the Big Ten title game next weekend. Now, we cannot assume the Huskers will play well because of the game’s significance. After all, they are on the bubble for a reason. However, I do think Iowa plays this game with limited excitement and I like the QB change to Chubba Purdy. With a total of 25, this should be a rock fight but I think we cover the short number. LOSS
1x Ohio/Akron under 41 – The Zips may not score. Ohio has a stout defense, and Akron is among the MAC’s worst teams. Ohio has been very reserved on offense lately so I think under makes the most sense. I anticipate a 24-3 final. WIN
2x Arkansas +9 vs. Missouri – The Razorbacks are a tough team to handicap. Just in the past month or so, they nearly upset Alabama in Tuscaloosa but also lose at home to Mississippi State. I think we get a good game from the Hogs, rallying around K.J. Jefferson’s final home. Missouri’s ceiling is pretty high and they can light up anyone but the Razorbacks have a respectable pass defense. LOSS
2x Dolphins/Jets 1st Half under 20.5 – I do not expect much from Tim Boyle but I do expect a strong bounceback effort from the Jets defense. They were understandably gassed last week in Buffalo but they should be recharged and perhaps rejuvenated with the QB change. Containing Miami’s offense is no easy task but I think they are up to the task. LOSS
LEANS: Jets +10 L, Arkansas/Missouri under 54.5 L, Texas Tech/Texas under 52.5 L, Oregon State +13.5 L, Knicks -5 L, Spurs/Warriors over 235.5 L
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 23 (-4.0 units)
2x Lions -7.5 vs. Packers – I am not going to overthink this. Detroit is the class of the division and Green Bay has been a disappointment. I will chalk last week’s performance by the Lions to apathy and lack of focus. This Thanksgiving game should have their attention, and I actually trust Detroit to cover this number. LOSS
1x 6-point Teaser: Lions -2 and Niners -1 (-130) – The rationale is pretty obvious. I essentially just need each team to win the game. Seattle should put up a strong fight against San Francisco but I trust the Niners to get the win. LOSS
.25x Dak Prescott last TD scored +1700 and .25x Sam Howell last TD +2200 – This prop pertains to a rushing or receiving touchdown. The lofty payouts interest me but Dak does have two rushing touchdowns this season and this game could be tighter than we think. And for Howell, he is a mobile QB and showed his willingness to pinball his body last week. Let’s have some fun with huge odds. LOSS
2x Ole Miss -10 at Mississippi State – This comes down whether Mississippi State can outperform its metrics because it’s a rivalry game. If not, Ole Miss should be able to carve up this weak defense and name the score. But even if the Bulldogs show up on defense, I also don’t think much of the offense. Lane Kiffin will light it up and not hold back. PUSH
LEANS: Sam Howell over 250.5 passing yards W, Commanders +13 L, Seahawks +7 L, Ole Miss/Mississippi St. under 53.5 W
WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 22 (+3.0 units)
2x Bucks/Celtics over 234 – Milwaukee has played 11 games with both Giannis and Damian Lillard in the lineup, and seven of those have cashed the over. I just think they are such an offensive threat with both guys, and the defense is a giant liability with Lillard. Both teams rank in the top five in offensive efficiency and while the Celtics have an elite defensive rating, I just don’t think it applies against this type of offense. WIN
1x Raptors/Pacers over 241 – I fundamentally cannot get off the Pacers and their overs but I am reluctant to fire hard. Their style lends itself to overs but the situation certainly calls for a flat performance, given the huge win over Atlanta. WIN
3x Jazz/Blazers 1st half over 111 – Both teams played last time and traveled for this game, which is why I am isolating the first half. Utah ranks second-worst in defensive efficiency and Portland is in the middle of the pack. Offensively, the Blazers are a concern because they rank dead-last in efficiency. However, I think they can score against this Jazz defense, which is where I find value. PUSH
LEANS: Wizards +4.5vW, Hawks -2 P, Bulls/Thunder under 225.5 W, Clippers -8.5 L, Warriors +2.5 L
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 21 (+1.7 units)
2x Pacers/Hawks over 252 and 2x 1st half over 124.5 – Here we go again…hopefully. Indiana has cashed the over in 11 of its 12 games this season. The market is starting to adjust with this high total but is it high enough? I say no. The Hawks can keep pace with Indy, and I also think the situation calls for an over more than usual. The Pacers laid a giant egg in their last game, trailing Orlando by 21 points after one quarter and 34 at halftime. I anticipate a focused team, and that means plenty of offense. WIN
1x Pacers 1st Quarter +1 at Hawks – As I mentioned above, Indy’s last performance was atrocious. Rick Carlisle lit a fire and the team played hard in the fourth quarter. I think they carry that over to this matchup and approach this game with the right mindset. I think that provides an edge in the first quarter. LOSS
2x Suns -13 vs. Blazers – This is the first year of the in-season tournament and some coaches are showing their cards. Phoenix’s Frank Vogel has openly discussed its importance and needing to improve the team’s point-differential. Well, when there’s concern of overlooking an inferior opponent or a backdoor cover, I see that as an encouraging sign. PUSH
1x Bowling Green/Western Michigan over 50.5 – The regular season finale can be a tricky handicap. The Falcons are coming off a painful loss over rival Toledo and are already bowl-bound. How much will they care about this game? The Broncos have the capability to give up a lot of points but also score, when the stars align. I think they do tonight so I expect fireworks that the metrics cannot really project because of the unique circumstances. LOSS
1x Eastern Michigan / Buffalo over 37.5 – This is another unique situation. The Eagles need a win to become bowl-eligible and Buffalo is four quarters away from the offseason. I think EMU will empty the bucket on offense with trick plays and things along those lines. The Bulls typically grind clock with the ground-and-pound but maybe they are either forced to open things up to keep pace with EMU or they sling it around in their last game. Either way, this number is too low. LOSS
1x Eastern Michigan +5 at Buffalo – As I stated above, the Eagles can clinch a bowl berth with a victory. However, we have to be careful assuming the best possible outcome in these scenarios. After all, they are in this predicament for a reason. They also wanted to win games all season and were often unable to. However, I think this particular opponent allows for a golden opportunity, and I like how EMU has been playing lately. WIN
LEANS: Western Michigan 1st Half +.5 L, Jazz/Lakers over 238.5 L
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 20 (-1.20 units)
2x Eagles/Chiefs under 46 – I understand the offenses are grabbing a lot of the attention but I think points will be relatively scarce. In fact, I do not think Patrick Mahomes will be able to carve up Philly’s defense like he did in the Super Bowl. The main reason is the field condition, which was a disaster last February. That will not be the case at Arrowhead. Plus, KC already racks up holding calls and we could see several tonight. I anticipate both defenses being able to relatively contain each quarterback. WIN
2x Knicks 1st quarter (+1) at Timberwolves and 1x Knicks win race to 10 points (+100) – I like backing New York in this situation. Minnesota laid an egg on Saturday against New Orleans but rallied late for a one-point win. When this happens and the team still wins, they usually start the next game with similar apathy. Meanwhile, with Tom Thibodeau at the helm and with solid veteran leadership, the Knicks reliably bring effort on almost every night. I think the Knicks jump on Minnesota early. LOSS
Leans: Eagles +2.5 W, Pistons +9 W, Hornets +8.5 W, Spurs +8.5 L, Kings/Pelicans over 236 L, Rockets/Warriors under 217.5 L
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 19 (-11.50 units)
2x Celtics -11 at Grizzlies – One thing I enjoy doing is fading a bad team off a big victory. That’s the case for Memphis. They outscored the Spurs by 29 points in the second half yesterday for a comeback win. Now here come the Celtics, one of the league’s best teams, and I expect a beatdown. Memphis has issues. LOSS
4x Kings / Mavericks over 245.5 – Styles make fights and this should be an offensive explosion. Dallas ranks second in offensive efficiency and sixth-worst in defensive efficiency. The Kings are difficult to gauge because De’Aaron Fox has missed five games. With him, they are an electric offense and push the pace. In the six games he’s played, Sacto has posted at least 114 points. Add the Mavs to the mix and you have a game that should land over 250 with relative ease – or at least that’s what I expect. For example, Dallas just faced Milwaukee and their game landed 257, despite a total of 51 points in the second quarter. I also like that this game will tip at a normal time despite it being a Sunday. Athletes are creatures of habit so their routine is uninterrupted here. LOSS
1x Miami Dolphins -13.5 vs. Raiders – This number steamed up all week but Miami still feels like the right side. There’s no reason this spread should have opened at 9.5 offshore. The Raiders made noise with back-to-back wins but facing Tommy DeVito and Zach Wilson at home is much different than trying to slow down this Dolphins offense on the road. Miami is a bully and punishes weak competition. And while the Raiders’ culture has improved, they are still extremely limited, particularly with a rookie quarterback. LOSS
2x Cardinals/Texans over 48 – This has all the makings of a shootout. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray returned last week and was quite impressive, given the injury. And we all know about CJ Stroud’s recent production, and I do not anticipate the Houston defense offering much resistance. Scoring is down this season but this matchup should be an outlier. LOSS
2x Steelers/Browns 1st Half under 16.5 and 1x Full Game under 33 – This quarterback matchup leaves a lot to be desired – unless you’re betting the under. Rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson was overwhelmed in his last appearance but I anticipate a more competent version. I am not alone, as sharp money has pounded this line to move the Browns to 2.5-point favorites. But I think an improved DTR lends itself to the under because he will avoid turnovers, and we all know Kenny Pickett is limited. I expect both coaches to approach this very conservatively and lean on their defenses. We should have a rock fight until one team backs the other one into a corner and forces riskier play-calling. That’s why I prefer the first half total. WIN
1x 6-point teaser: Lions -2 + Commanders -2.5 vs. Giants (-130) – The entire betting world might have this teaser so who am I to avoid the fun? I am a man of the people… In all seriousness, this should cash. I do have concerns of recency bias, particularly with Washington. I also worry the Lions are flat off a huge win and may be looking ahead to Thanksgiving. However, I have concerns with every NFL bet so sometimes you just have to pull the trigger. You can’t be afraid to lose. LOSS
3x Broncos -2.5 vs. Vikings (-120) – At some point the Vikings and Joshua Dobbs have to come back to earth, and I think that is Sunday night. Denver not only upset the Bills but they have been playing much better. In fact, entering the season, a pro bettor told me that he was anticipating value on Denver midseason because that’s when Sean Payton will have this team connected. Even after three straight wins, I still think they are mispriced in the market. The Vikings should get a reality check in Denver. LOSS
Leans: Panthers +10.5 L, Cardinals +6 W, Chargers -3 L, Rams -2 L, Bills -7.5 W, Jazz +4.5 W, Rockets +5.5 W
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 18 (-1.80 units)
3x T’Wolves -7.5 at Pelicans – At first glance, this is a big number to lay on the road. However, this is a classic NBA handicapping scenario that usually works well. The Pelicans defeated the defending champs last night with an emotional and hard-fought win. That sets up a giant flat spot for today, especially with Zion Williamson missing the game. Meanwhile, Minnesota is off a loss that snapped its seven-game win streak and should be ready to bounce back. LOSS
2x Maryland +19.5 vs. Michigan – The Terps might be catching UM at the right time. It’s an emotional stretch for the Wolverines with the Jim Harbaugh suspension, a big showdown with Penn State last Saturday and Ohio State on deck. I also think the Terps are competent with a talented QB and recent history is on their side. Over the last six times that Michigan has faced the Buckeyes, the Wolverines have only covered once. In fact, last year the undefeated Wolverines nearly lost to Illinois at home. It’s hard to keep kids focused with all these distractions. WIN
2x Louisiana-Monroe +37.5 at Ole Miss – Much like Maryland, this is all about catching the Rebels in a giant “sandwich spot”. Ole Miss is off a showdown with Georgia and next has the Egg Bowl on a short week with rival Mississippi State looming on Thanksgiving. We’ve seen superior teams go through the motions in these types of situations. However, the Warhawks are understandably a giant underdog. They’ve lost eight straight games and failed to cover in five of those. They could easily get drilled but the Ole Miss defense is pretty weak so let’s hope ULM has enough firepower to keep this inside the number. WIN
3x SMU over 37.5 points at Memphis – The Tigers own a pitiful defense, and I fully expect head coach Rhett Lashlee and QB Preston Stone to carve them up. The Mustangs have two losses and they came on the road to TCU and Oklahoma. In their eight wins, they are averaging 47.1 PPG and while some of those weak opponents, the Memphis defense is that bad. And because the Tigers own a solid offense at times, I think SMU will have to keep pace with offense. WIN
1x Indiana -3.5 vs. Michigan State and 1x MSU team total under 21.5 points – This an awful showdown of two teams that each have one win in conference play. However, the Hoosiers are playing distinctly better football lately, covering three straight games. Sparty has its moments but ultimately this is a pedestrian offense by all accounts. The Spartans have only surpassed 21 points once in their seven conference games. LOSS
1x Georgia/Tennessee over 58.5 – It’s hard to make this play after seeing the Vols only muster seven points last week at Missouri but I have to treat that as an anomaly. UT should also play much better at home and be able to score enough against a Georgia defense that does not resemble the unit of the back-to-back national champions. The Bulldogs can also put up plenty of points, especially with stud tight end Brock Bowers back from injury. LOSS
2x USC -5 vs. UCLA – I was impressed with the Trojans at Oregon last week, although I still believe the Ducks should have covered. Nonetheless, USC had every opportunity to lay an egg and they showed tons of fight in a tough environment. Now they catch UCLA limping and coach Chip Kelly is seemingly done after this game. There’s certainly a chance the awful USC defense allows UCLA to cover and possibly win but I will go against the market move and lay the points. This is Caleb Williams’ final home game and he can torch any defense. LOSS
2x Minnesota/Ohio State over 50 – The Buckeyes are capable of hitting this over all by themselves. The Gophers have a terrible defense. It’s somewhat difficult to convey that with season-long statistics, given how meek Big Ten offenses are this year outside of the top teams. But the Gophers just allowed 49 points to Purdue and 37 to Illinois over their past two games. Earlier this season, Michigan dropped 52 on them and Minnesota has not faced Penn State. To me, all that points to a beatdown at the ‘Shoe. However, there are legitimate concerns of players looking ahead to Michigan next week and Ryan Day sitting guys in the second half of a blowout but that could also generate points by Minnesota. Additionally, we have the potential of them wanting to feed Marvin Harrison Jr. to bolster his Heisman Trophy campaign. I also believe this Buckeyes squad needs to find an offensive rhythm and perhaps the Gophers are the prescription for that. LOSS
3x Kansas State -10 at Kansas – The Wildcats have received nothing but steady steam of sharp money. It sure looks as though the Jayhawks will be down to a third-string quarterback and that will make it difficult for them to keep pace with Kansas State. The Wildcats just dropped 59 points against Baylor and should destroy this KU defense. Kansas State is still alive for the Big 12 title, while Kansas was eliminated last week in a tight loss. This is a rivalry game and KU is very well-coached but I still believe in the Wildcats. LOSS
1x LSU Team Total over 52.5 points over Georgia State – All 10 Tigers games have cashed the over, which is remarkable. I am opting for the team total because I am unsure what to expect from Georgia State. Even if the Panthers contribute points towards the total, that will force LSU to keep scoring. Also, LSU has three losses but QB Jayden Daniels is still very much in the Heisman Trophy conversation. And since LSU will not play the final weekend before voting closes, he needs to continue to put up astronomical stats. So I am inclined to believe Brian Kelly will do what he can to light it up, given how much a Heisman can help recruiting. WIN
2x Jayden Daniels with 70+ rushing yards (+100 at FanDuel)– Honestly, he may cash this ticket by halftime. Daniels has electric speed and all it takes is the slightest defensive lapse to give him an alley that he can turn into a house call. As I mentioned above, LSU is not worried about preserving him. They want him to win the Heisman and that will become a priority at certain junctures. FYI, FanDuel also has over 66.5 yards at -114 and DraftKings has over 63.5 yards at -125. I just prefer this number and juice. WIN
2x Jayden Daniels over 3.5 passing TD – As a 32-point favorite, LSU will have plenty of endzone opportunities. And given the underlying Heisman narrative, I fully expect Brian Kelly to call passes near the goal line. This is an atypical game. We saw a similar mindset last week with the San Francisco 49ers. In a blowout and the starting QB already pulled, San Francisco was still trying to get Christian McCaffrey a touchdown because of an NFL record. There is legitimate benefit for LSU if Daniels wins the Heisman, and I think they will do what they can do enhance his chance. WIN
1x UFC Parlay (-125): Brendan Allen “Inside the Distance” over Paul Craig + Michael Morales over Jake Mathews – This is a parlay with two legs coming from the UFC’s main card. Allen ITD has a prop price of -280 and Morales is a -310 favorite. A $125 parlay pays $100. As for the breakdown, Morales has answered every challenge and is ascending the ranks. Matthews lacks a single advantage in this matchup and Morales will pepper him with accurate strikes and avoid any reckless risks. As for the main event, Allen should notch a dominating win. Given it’s scheduled for five rounds, I am comfortable opting for the -280 rather than the -440 for any type of win. I think he wins via a submission but the KO is possible. That’s what makes him dangerous against Craig, who has more game than people realize. With that being said, he’s lost two of three and Allen is polished enough to avoid a key mistake. WIN
.5x Jordan Leavitt to win via KO/TKO/DQ over Chase Hooper +900 (DraftKings) (FanDuel has +1000) – UFC – This price is just too good to pass up. Leavitt has an awkward style and this fight likely goes to the judges but Hooper’s last loss did come via TKO. Now, that was in a different weight class and he looked much better in his last fight without having to cut. But he’s sloppy and his reputation as a sound fighter gets exposed when facing better opponents. I am unconvinced Leavitt is at that level but we are getting +900 on a half-unit. That’s the key. Leavitt is a +170 underdog but I think the value is on the knockout prop. Leavitt can stymie the clinch and pick his spots against a disorganized Hooper. LOSS
Leans: Oklahoma -24.5 L, Louisville +1 W, Louisville/Miami under 46 L, SMU -8.5 L, Northwestern +3 W, Wyoming -13.5 W, Cincinnati +5 L, Virginia +3 W, Illinois/Iowa under 32.5 W, UNLV +3 W, Stanford +7 (-115) L, Oregon State -1.5 L, Florida/Missouri over 57 W, Wisconsin -6 W, Iowa State +7.5 L, San Jose State -14.5 L, (UFC) Jordan Leavitt +170 L, Hornets +6.5 L, Mavs/Bucks over 247 W, Thunder -1 W
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 17 (+3.8 units)
2x Knicks -7 at Wizards and 1x Knicks team total over 117.5 points – Laying these many points on the road is tough but Washington is as bad as it gets in the NBA. They are thin on talent and their main guys, such as Jordan Poole, lack leadership skills. The complete opposite of that is Tom Thibodeau and the Knicks. They should drill Washington and not mess around. The Knicks can hit scoring droughts but Washington ranks fifth-worst in defensive efficiency. So I trust them to knock down open jumpers. WIN
2x Kings Team Total over 123.5 points at Spurs and 1x 1st Half team total over 63.5 points – The handicap is pretty simple. The Kings are a fast-paced and productive team with De’Aaron Fox in the lineup, and the power ratings cannot quite fully capture that because he’s missed a handful of games. The Spurs rank second-worst in defensive efficiency and I see no reason Sacramento can’t light them up. I prefer the team total over the game total because San Antonio can sometimes lay an egg, which we saw on Tuesday when they only scored 87 points. 2x WIN, 1x LOSS
1x Suns 1st Half (-3) at Jazz – Phoenix will be without Bradley Beal but the tandem of Devin Booker and Kevin Durant should be enough to cover this number in the first half. When you compare these two teams’ scoring and points allowed by each half, the biggest advantage is the Suns in the first half. Perhaps the Salt Lake City altitude plays a role. Either way, I do think this is the right play. LOSS
1x Rockets +7.5 at Clippers – I’ll take the bait. Sharp money arrived on the Clippers to push this number up but I still do not believe in the Clips. They are 0-6 since acquiring James Harden and while Russell Westbrook voluntarily coming off the bench may help morale, they still have a lot of work to do. On paper this should be a one-sided win for L.A. but the Rockets are much more cohesive and have an excellent coach. WIN
Leans: USF +16 L, Colorado/Wazzu over 61.5 W, Celtics/Raptors over 224 L, Bulls 1st Half -1.5 L, Pelicans +5.5 W, Suns/Jazz over 237 W, Blazers +8.5 L
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 16 (+3.0 units)
1x Pittsburgh -2.5 vs. Boston College – I hate that I am making this bet but I have to stick to my convictions. Pitt is 2-8 but still a better team and I expect a good effort. They let me down last week but now they’re at home and facing an inferior Boston College team. The Eagles are bowl-eligible but all their wins came against weak competition. It’s a very misleading record. Pat Narduzzi is a headache to back but I will do it one more time. WIN
2x Thunder -3 at Warriors – Golden State will play short-handed without Steph Curry and Draymond Green. The supporting cast played well most of Wednesday night but ultimately, they just lack the firepower. Meanwhile, OKC is a much better team than people realize, ranking in the top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The Warriors also have a top-15 ranking in each category but they are missing their main weapons on each side of the floor. WIN
Leans: Bengals +3.5 L, Heat -3.5 W
WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 15 (-1.1 units)
3x Kings/Lakers over 235 – The season stats are difficult to apply in this matchup because each team has battled different lineups. Sacramento just got De’Aaron Fox back and he is so critical to their performance. The Lakers have also started to gel and improve their offensive production. With both teams at full strength and in their current form, they can light up the scoreboard. For example, the Lakers just set a franchise record for made three-pointers in their last game. Sacramento wants to push the pace with Fox and the Lakers will oblige. PUSH
1x Timberwolves +5 at Suns – This is supposed to be the first time this season that Phoenix has its three All-Stars in the starting lineup. But it will take some time for Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal to develop chemistry. Head coach Frank Vogel will also need time to optimize his substitution patterns. Minnesota just played in Golden State but this game matchup will have their attention. This just feels like too many points for such a talented T’Wolves squad. I am also expecting a big performance from Anthony Edwards. LOSS
Leans: Miami (OH) -7.5 W, Buffalo/Miami under 37.5 W, Central Michigan/Ohio under 48.5 L, Celtics -5 W, Magic +2 W
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 14 (+3.7 units)
2x Toledo -6.5 (1st Half) (-105) at Bowling Green – The Rockets are the class of the MAC and do not have to travel for this rivalry game. Toledo is looking for revenge and all signs point to a strong start. I prefer betting the first half line because I think we get some line value with that revenge angle. Also, the MAC can be wild and the Falcons are plenty competent enough to cover through the back door. LOSS
3x Pacers/Sixers over 240.5 and 1x 1st Half over 122 – These two teams played on Sunday and combined for 263 points. I do not see any reason why that changes drastically. The Pacers lead the league in scoring and have gone over their total in all but one of their 10 games. They play minimal defense and want to push the pace. Philly owns elite defensive metrics but those are diminished when you face a team like Indy that initiates such a unique tempo and vibe. WIN & LOSS
1x Nuggets -4.5 vs. Clippers – This is a straight fade of James Harden and the Clippers. They are 0-4 straight up and against the spread since acquiring him from Philly. Denver has some issues since losing Jamal Murray and I do not believe the betting market fully captures his worth. However, the Clips are such a train wreck that I have to take this stance. LOSS
5x Timberwolves -2.5 at Warriors – Steph Curry is out for this game. Minnesota moved from a 2.5-point underdog to a favorite of 2.5. That is way too small of a move. I see Minnesota as at least a six-point favorite. The T’Wolves may be flat because Curry is out but ultimately this is the right play. WIN
Leans: Akron/Easter Michigan under 39 L, Western Michigan +4.5 L, Lakers -5.5 W
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 13 (+4.0 units)
1x Bucks 1st team to 20 points vs. Bulls (-180) – I am expecting a strong start from Milwaukee, which is riding a two-game losing streak and should get Damian Lillard back from injury. Additionally, the Bulls are coming off a win on Sunday so I think the situation presents a likelihood for an emphatic Milwaukee start. WIN
3x Bucks 1st Quarter -3 vs. Bulls – First quarter and first half lines are directly commensurate with the game lines. Oddsmakers do not approach them in a vacuum. That allows for certain opportunities, such as this matchup. Not only should Milwaukee approach this game with much more focus and urgency than Chicago, but the Bulls’ starting lineup has poor efficiency metrics. Specifically, DeMar DeRozan’s net rating is -15.2 in the first quarter this season. WIN
Leans: Broncos +7.5 W, Broncos/Bills under 47 W
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 12 (+5.1 units)
2x 49ers -3 at Jaguars (-115) – Waves of sharp handicappers are backing San Francisco off a bye and trying to snap a three-game skid. Jacksonville has won five straight games but still has doubters. A Jags win would not surprise me, and perhaps a 20-1 Trevor Lawrence MVP ticket is worth a play, but in the NFL, teams do not run the table. This is a good spot to back San Francisco. However, keep in mind Trent Williams is unlikely to play. WIN
1x Christian McCaffrey to score a TD (-190) – By now we all know the deal. He has scored at least one touchdown in 17 straight games. I do not see any reason this run stops. -190 translates to 66%, and I believe his chances of scoring are higher than that. The Niners have a team total of 23.5, which essentially represents three touchdowns. McCaffrey should produce one of them. LOSS
1x Lions -3 at Chargers (-105) – I refuse to allow a couple decent wins to skew my view of the Chargers. Detroit is the superior team and is much more reliable. I typically avoid backing Jared Goff on the road but L.A. weather justifies the exception. If Justin Herbert has an excellent game, then so be it. But he and Brandon Staley find ways to botch games so I will ride with Detroit. PUSH
2x Jets/Raiders under 36 and 1x 1st half under 17.5 (-115) – This is my favorite play of the NFL card. The Vegas offense looked competent against the Giants but the Jets are a much different story. They rank in the top five in opponent points per play. It is a stingy group, and this game is critical if they want to remain in the playoff picture. Plus, the Jets have their own issues on offense. I think the Raiders defense, particularly Maxx Crosby, will harass a skittish Zach Wilson and points will be hard to find. Motivated by variance, I felt like breaking up three units between the first half and game. WIN
2x Pacers/76ers over 237 – Indiana has gone over its total in eight of nine games, thanks to leading the league in offensive efficiency and ranking among the worst in defense. I still doubt the betting market can fully grasp this team. The Sixers also rank high in offensive efficiency but their defense is stout. However, given how Indy approaches that side of the court, I am unsure Philly can defend the three-point line that well. WIN
Leans: Colts -2 W, Packers +3 (+100) L, Saints/Vikings under 41 W, Browns +6.5 W, Cowboys -17 (-115) W, Seahawks -5.5 L, Clippers -8.5 L, Nuggets/Rockets under 217 W, Mavericks/Pelicans over 234.5 W, Pistons +7.5 L
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 11 (-4.8 units)
2x Alabama -11 at Kentucky – The Tide are a much better team than they were earlier this season. Thus, they offer betting value because the stats that account for their power ratings do not accurately reflect the current version. Meanwhile, Kentucky has been a bit of a farce, losing to good opponents: Georgia, Missouri and Tennessee. QB Devin Leary has not delivered on the hype he brought as a transfer and Wildcats coach Mark Stoops sent the wrong message with some comments after the Georgia loss. The Tide’s offense is clicking and I think this game gets out of hand. WIN
1x North Carolina -12.5 vs. Duke – This line has seen some sharp money on both sides but those came at different prices, since it did reach as high as 14.5. The Tar Heels have experienced some disappointment but at their best, this a potent offense with big-strike capabilities. Duke has a stout defense but it can become vulnerable if it’s asked to do too much, which has typically been the case when QB Riley Leonard is not healthy. Of course he is out and the Blue Devils are turning to Grayson Loftis. I think this game stays close for about a half and then the Heels have too much firepower. LOSS
1x Ole Miss / Georgia over 58 – The Bulldogs defense is not as stout as in recent years. That’s why some schools have been able to move the ball and cover, which is why UGA is only 2-6-1 ATS. Vanderbilt, UAB, Auburn, Florida and Missouri all scored at least 20 points so I do believe Lane Kiffin and the Rebels can generate enough offense. I also think the ‘Dawgs offense is capable of lighting up a suspect Ole Miss defense, especially if tight end Brock Bowers returns from injury. Either way, I anticipate a 41-24 type of game. WIN
1x Cal -2 vs. Washington State – This is a direct play against Wazzu, which is having as puzzling of a season as anyone. The Cougars once had a top-15 ranking but have since lost five straight. The Bears have lost four straight themselves but all those games came against quality competition. And I like the recent move to freshman QB Fernando Mendoza, who is 6-foot-5 and seems to have a command of the offense. WIN
1x Tennessee/Missouri over 58.5 – There really is no reason for this to be anything but a shootout. Both teams have potent offenses and play with pace. The total dipped to 57 midweek because of an injury to stud Tigers wideout Luther Burden but he has been cleared. Additionally, Mizzou has a couple guys in their secondary that are banged up. Vols QB Joe Milton can be a bit mercurial but he has a cannon and U.T. can light it up. LOSS
2x Oregon -16 vs. USC – This has all the makings of a beatdown that could mirror Colorado’s 42-6 loss in Eugene. Much like USC’s loss to Washington, the Buffs were coming off an emotional game and had nothing left in the tank. We all saw the video of an emotional Caleb Williams and another poor defensive performance. Firing coordinator Alex Grinch does nothing for a defense that leads the Pac-12 in missed tackles and cannot stop anyone. Additionally, the Ducks need style points to maintain their highest ranking of the one-loss schools, in addition to winning recruiting battles with USC. The Trojans likely left it all on the field against the Huskies and have the potential to get routed under the Autzen lights. LOSS
2x Oregon team total over 47.5 points – There is no reason to believe USC can stop this powerful Oregon offense. Firing the defensive coordinator does nothing positive, except possibly rattling the cages of defenders. However, if they had the talent and capabilities to play better, they would have done that in their biggest matchups. The Ducks should be able to name their score and hang a huge number. And in case Caleb Williams and the USC offense shows up and enables the Trojans to cover, betting the team total serves as some protection. LOSS
2x Pitt -3 vs. Syracuse – I hate betting on Pat Narduzzi but I have to fade a Syracuse team that has seemingly come undone. The Orange have lost five straight games, which include four blowouts to superior programs and a home loss to Boston College. The ‘Cuse has only mustered 44 points during this five-game skid but allowed 167. It’s not fun backing a favorite that has lost three straight but Pitt’s last two losses came against quality opponents in Florida State and Notre Dame. The first one was at Wake Forest in a game they easily had won, if QB Christian Veilleux did not slide. This won’t be a pretty game but I do believe the Panthers will come to play, which is not something I can say for Syracuse. LOSS
2x San Jose State -2.5 vs. Fresno State – The Spartans have taken a steady flow of sharp money all week, moving from the underdog to the favorite. They’ve won three straight games and seem to have resolved their early struggles. However, the true test comes against an 8-1 Fresno State. However, the Bulldogs have played three straight one-score games and San Jose State is off a bye. The fresher team is who I want to back this late in the season. WIN
2x Kyung Ho Kang (+105) vs. John Castaneda at UFC 295 – Kang has taken the sharpest of sharp money, driving this underdog price all the way down from +140. Kang is better with the legs and should win, if he can avoid tight punching and any grappling. He’s coming off back-to-back victories, including an impressive win over Cristian Quinonez, that I think gives him the edge. LOSS
Leans: Virginia Tech -1.5 W, Miami +14.5 W, Georgia Tech +14 L, UCF +2.5 W, Purdue +2 W, Michigan/Penn State over 45 L, Kansas -4 L, Colorado +10 W, West Virginia +11.5 L, Rutgers/Iowa under 27.5 W, BYU +7.5 L, Air Force/Hawaii over 47.5 L, Heat +7.5 W
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 10 (+2.0 units)
2x Celtics -7 (1st half) vs. Nets – The Cam Thomas injury should have a large impact on Brooklyn, given he’s the leading scorer and an automatic bucket. I also like backing very good teams off a loss, which is the case for Boston. The Celtics also rank among the top teams in first half scoring and rank tenth in points allowed in the first half. It’s a good spot to back them against a depleted opponent. WIN
Leans: Wyoming +3 L, Clippers/Mavericks over 236.5 W, Rockets -1.5 W
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 9 (+1.0 unit)
1x Panthers/Bears under 39 – The rationale is pretty straight forward. Both teams have rookie quarterbacks and have struggled most of the season. I also think Carolina’s defense is solid and do not believe in Bryce Young enough to think he will torch a weak Chicago defense. Let’s not overthink it. WIN
Leans: Panthers +3.5 W
WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 8 (+4.0 units)
1x Jazz/Pacers over 242 , 1x 1st half over 118.5, 1x Pacers Team Total over 124.5 points – We’ve covered Indiana in this space many times. At full strength, they want to run and shoot three-pointers, which is why they have cashed six of seven overs this season. They currently lead the NBA in scoring and both these teams rank in the bottom six in defensive efficiency. This has all the makings of a track meet so rather than play 3 units on one wager, I am going to distribute the units over three separate but correlated bets. WIN
1x Suns 1st Half PK (-110) vs. Bulls – The Bulls rank among the worst teams in first half scoring and the entire lineup is a mess, given DeMar DeRozan has such a terrible plus-minus in relation to his teammates. The Suns are a strange team right now with the ongoing uncertainty of Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. Somehow the offense has been fine in first halves so I am going to ride that trend but this is also a bet against Chicago. PUSH
1x Bucks team total under 120.5 points vs. Pistons – It’s a bit stressful to fade an offense with such a high ceiling but this is a high point total. Additionally, Detroit ranks in the middle of the pack of defensive efficiency so asking the Bucks to score 121+ points on them will be a challenge. Milwaukee has only scored 123 or more in one of its six games. I feel like their range for this matchup is between 109 and 127 so I feel we have more ways to win than lose, which I believe is the best way to approach NBA teams totals. WIN
Leans: Akron/Miami (OH) under 38 W, Bowling Green -10.5 W, EMU/Toledo under 45 L, Celtics -3 L, Knicks team total over 117.5 W, Rockets +4.5 W, Nuggets -4 L, Raptors +4 W, Blazers +8 W
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 7 (-2.2 units)
2x Northern Illinois (-10) vs. Ball State – As wild and unpredictable as MAC-tion can be, I have to lay the points with Northern Illinois. I actually like the fact that the Huskies lost last week because I think an inferior will have their attention. NIU cannot afford to mess around. As for Ball State, it’s been a brutal season. The Cardinals have only defeated one FBS team and are 0-5 on the road, including 1-4 ATS. This should be a convincing home win. LOSS
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 6 (+2.0 units)
1x Chargers/Jets under 41 – As the old adage goes, styles make fights. The Jets have the right defense to limit Justin Herbert, being able to apply pressure and also guard his talented receivers. New York also has a knack for hanging around with field position and a vanilla offensive approach with Zach Wilson. Above all, I am not putting too much stock in the Chargers’ last game. They absolutely needed the win, and Chicago is as poor as teams come. In the two previous games, they scored 17 points against the Chiefs and Cowboys. That’s where I expect this game to land. WIN
1x Pacers Team Total over 124.5 points vs Spurs – Indiana plays at a ridiculous pace, and the Spurs are typically a team that will oblige. These two rank in the bottom five of points per game allowed. I am siding with Indiana’s team total instead of the conventional total play because San Antonio can occasionally lay an offensive egg. For example, they only mustered 83 points in their first road game and this is the second of a back-to-back situation. They’re still working out the kinks but the Pacers know who they are and will be ready for a track meet. WIN
Leans: Jets +3.5 L, Warriors -7 W, Thunder PK W, USC -3 W, South Dakota State -2 L, New Mexico State +16 L
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 5 (-.2 units)
1x Packers -3.5 vs. Rams – This is purely a play against the Rams, who are expected to start backup QB Brett Rypien. In short, oddsmakers dislike these types of situations. They prefer both teams at full strength because their power ratings are more accurate. As for this matchup, they don’t know what the right spread is with Rypien. As bad as Green Bay is, I think the Rams will experience a giant dropoff without Matthew Stafford, who has been great this season. Sharp money has arrived on the Packers, and I will still lay the 3.5 points. WIN
1x Colts -2 at Panthers – At this point of their careers, Gardner Minshew is far more capable than Bryce Young and poses a larger threat to the opposing defense. Carolina notched their first win last weekend but that came against a rookie quarterback and limited offense. The Colts should be able to score more points, although I do worry about their shaky defense. My hope is that they can confuse Young enough. WIN
2x Raiders team total under 19.5 points – The under has cashed in all eight games so far. Obviously the team shook up the coaching staff and front office but I do not see how an inexperienced play-caller and rookie QB translate to more points. New coach Antonio Pierce will probably encourage the team to throw more to Davante Adams, as owner Mark Davis is frustrated. However, the issues are more personnel-related, given the weak offensive line, and Aidan O’Connell has a propensity to hold the ball too long. LOSS
Leans: Dolphins +1 L, Ravens -6.5 W, Falcons -4 L, Bengals -2.5 W, Eagles -3 W
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 4 (-.1 units)
1x Iowa State -3 vs. Kansas – This is all about the situational spot. The Jayhawks are coming off a huge win over Oklahoma and often in these situations we see teams unable to maintain the necessary focus and preparation for a competitive game the following week. The Cyclones are also playing decent ball, having won three straight games by double digits. The stars are aligned for a solid Iowa State win. LOSS
1x Purdue/Michigan over 53.5 – The Wolverines have been able to block out the noise surrounding the Jim Harbaugh allegations and remain undefeated with emphatic victories. I expect a similar performance against Purdue. Michigan has scored at least 45 in all but one conference game and the outlier came against Rutgers, which bleeds clock at all costs. The Boilermakers are often inept but they do have capabilities to score points. If they don’t, they tend to shoot themselves in the foot with turnovers, which will give Michigan short fields. With a road game at Penn State on deck, there is a chance the Wolverines look past Purdue with a lethargic effort but perhaps that scenario would enable Purdue to score a lot. WIN
Leans: Kansas State +3.5 W, Indiana +8 W, Tennessee -35 W, Clemson +3.5 W, Minnesota -2.5 L, Penn State -9 W, Washington -3 W, UCLA -2.5 L, Stanford +13 W, Nuggets -10 W
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 3 (-1.1 units)
1x Knicks team total over 109.5 vs. Bucks – New York has had trouble scoring at times but I think they break out against Milwaukee. The Bucks own the league’s worst defensive rating, feeling the effects of the coaching change. This game counts towards the in-season tournament but I doubt that changes anything. The Knicks should encounter minimal resistance against a team that has allowed this many points in all four games so far. LOSS
Leans: Syracuse -3 L, Nuggets -6.5 W, Grizzlies/Blazers under 221 L
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 2 (-6.8 units)
1x Titans +3 (-120) at Steelers – At the expense of overreacting to a great debut by Titans rookie quarterback Will Levis, this feels like too good of a number to pass up. Catching three points in a game with a total of 37 is very valuable, particularly because Mike Tomlin is so conservative and seemingly wants to win games in the fourth quarter. Additionally, Pittsburgh has some question marks. LOSS
1x Titans/Steelers 1st half under 18.5 points – This feels like the right approach. If I like a football game under the total, I will play the first half. In this case, both coaches will do what they can to avoid turnovers and play conservatively, rely on their defense. The fourth quarter could lead to short fields and forced passes, if one team is trailing by two scores. The first half is the more logical choice. LOSS
2x Wake Forest / Duke 1st under 21 (-115) – Blue Devils QB Riley Leonard will miss this game and that completely changes the handicap. They just cannot move the ball with the same effectiveness. The Wake defense is sufficient enough to limit them, and we know the Duke defense is extremely solid. I expect a conservative approach in the first half by Duke, hoping to allow the defense to create turnovers and short fields. LOSS
2x Suns -5 1st Half vs. Spurs – This is a classic handicap of the revenge angle. These two teams played on Tuesday and the Spurs rallied from a 20-point deficit. Phoenix should be plenty motivated and focused. I feel the largest discrepancy of that will be in the first half so I want to isolate that angle. LOSS
Leans: Jazz +1 L, South Alabama +4 L, Raptors +8 L, Pistons +5 L
WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 1 (+1.0 unit)
1x Blazers/Pistons under 214 – Portland ranks among the league’s lowest-scoring teams and has only eclipsed the century mark once in its first four games. And now Anfernee Simons is injured. The defense has been torched by the Clippers and Sixers but the Pistons do not typically have that kind of firepower. This number feels a tad too high. WIN
Leans: Rangers -115 W, Bowling Green -5.5 L, Akron -4.5 L