Below are bets that I actually make. My approach entails aggregating conversations with extremely respected oddsmakers and bettors, along with my own handicapping. I want to share that insight and intel.
Sportsbooks prefer you wager solely on marquee games and make multiple parlays. I do not oblige. That may entail taking days off or passing on exciting matchups. Winning takes occasional discipline but the good opportunities will present themselves – if one is mildly patient.
MAIN BETS – Dollar amounts differ for each person but unit sizes (1x through 5x) are an effective method. 5x represents my largest and most confident wager.
LEANS – These represent mere opinions on other games where my conviction is not high enough to place a wager.
completed plays / results
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 29 (+9.3 units)
3x plays: Virginia Tech ML (+100) (Women’s CBB) L
2x plays: St. Mary’s -15 at Pepperdine W, Ohio State -3.5 vs. Nebraska W, Stanford/Oregon St. under 132.5 (Women’s CBB) W, South Carolina -26 at Arkansas (Women’s CBB) W
1.5x plays: Utah -8 vs. Stanford W, UC Davis -4 vs. Hawaii W, Hawai’i/UC Davis under 138.5 W
1x plays: Warriors/Knicks under 223 W, Michigan/Rutgers under 139 W, UC Santa Barbara -14.5 vs. Cal Poly L, San Francisco +4 vs. Gonzaga L
LEANS: Hornets 1H +7 L, Rockets +8.5 W, Heat 1H +3 L, UCLA +3.5 L
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 28 (+.6 units)
3x plays: Alabama -5 at Ole Miss W
2x plays: Bulls 1st quarter +1.5 vs. Cavs L
1x plays: Bulls win race to 10 points (+130) L, Bulls win race to 20 points (+135) L, Nuggets -8 vs. Kings W, Iowa State -9.5 vs. Oklahoma W, Marquette -10.5 vs. Providence W, Butler -1.5 vs. St. John’s L, Missouri/Florida over 154 W, Virginia/BC under 127 L
LEANS: Mavs/Raptors over 241 W, Nuggets 1Q -2.5 L, Clippers -3 L, Auburn +7.5 L, Xavier -19.5 W, Louisville 1H +12.5 L, South Carolina +5.5 W
TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 27 (+1.0 units)
4x: Cade Cunningham over 1.5 made 3-pointers (-135) WIN
2x: Mississippi St. -4.5 vs. Kentucky L, Boise St/Air Force over 134 L, Pelicans -6.5 W, Hornets +14.5 L, Pistons 1st Half +6.5 W
1x: Miss. St/Kentucky under 156 L, CIN/HOU under 133 W, Arkansas -10 L, Magic -7 W, Thunder 1st Half -6 W, Thunder -10 W
.5x: Texas Tech -3.5 L, Clemson -7 P, Kansas -8 L, Air Force +11.5 L, Wyoming +5.5 L
LEANS: Warriors -10.5 W, Sixers 1st Half +7 W
MONDAY, FEBRUARY 26(-2.2 units)
2x Knicks -11 vs. Pistons – I think it’s a good spot to back New York. They’ve lost five of six games and should not mess around with Detroit. Tom Thibodeau won’t allow any lackadaisical effort. They’re 21-11 ATS in the favorite role, albeit only 4-3 ATS as a double-digit favorite. However, I also think this Detroit squad is worse after the trade deadline and I am unsure the market has caught up, which is why they’re 1-4 ATS in their last five. LOSS
LEANS: Pacers -5.5 L, Heat +7.5 W, Kansas St. -9.5 L, Baylor +2.5 W
SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 25 (+1.4 units)
1.5x Maryland/Rutgers under 130 – This opener has been bet up a bit but I disagree. Last month they combined for a 56-53 rock fight and I think we see a similar performance. They combined for 35% shooting and I imagine we see some regression but 20 points is a lot. Rutgers ranks 210th in offensive efficiency and Rutgers is 327th. They are brutal offensively. The Scarlet Knights won in College Park so as temping as it is to lay the two points, I am going to stick with the total. WIN
.5x Plays: Thunder -6, Hornets +3, Michigan St. -10.5, Minnesota +7 .2xLOSS
LEANS: Suns -3.5 W, Magic +2 L, Bulls +4.5 W, Warriors -2.5 L, Kings +5 W, Marquette -11.5 W
SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 24(-.08 units)
2x UConn -12 vs. Villanova – The spot favors the Huskies, as they are coming off a beatdown at Creighton. There’s a bit of a tax but I still think it’s the right side. At their best, the Huskies are elite and as good as anyone in the country. I think we see their best. WIN
1x San Diego +22.5 at St. Mary’s – This line is just way too high. The Gaels are the conference’s best team but are coming off a hard-fought game over San Francisco. I think we see a bit of a hangover against a mediocre Toreros squad. I feel St. Mary’s sleepwalks and wins by 15-18 points. LOSS
1x Riverside -7.5 at Cal Poly SLO – The Mustangs are winless in conference play and definitely the worst team. The only time they cover is when the opponent takes them lightly. I think we get a solid performance from the Highlanders, who are coming off a loss. They should win this by double digits. LOSS
.5x plays: Brian Ortega +125 vs. Yair Rodriguez W, Claudio Puelles +175 vs. Fares Ziam L
LEANS: Erik Silva +400 vs. Muhammad Naimov L, Knicks +6 L, Celtics/Knicks over 224.5 L, Cornell -11 L, Arizona St. +5 W, UNLV PK W
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 23(-.25 units)
1x Suns -3.5 at Rockets – I like backing Phoenix off a loss. Both teams played last night so I am not too concerned about consecutive road game for the Suns. Houston is much better at home but I think that shine has waned. I have to back the Suns with Devon Booker and Kevin Durant to handle their business. LOSS
2x Hornets +13.5 at Warriors – Charlotte’s power rating is completely out of whack right now. The current lineup is vastly different than what they had all season up until about a week ago. The Hornets went from having a couple reliable players in the entire roster to now bringing capable guys off the bench, such as Seth Curry, Grant Williams and Davis Bertans. Additionally, rookie Brandon Miller is now playing more minutes and delivering more. Thus, regardless of the opponent and until the market adjusts properly, the Hornets are a bet-on team. WIN
.5x plays: T’Wolves -4 L, Columbia -4 L, Cornell -3 P, Duquesne -2.5 L, Nevada -10.5 W
LEANS: Cavs -4.5 L, Hawks -8 L, Clippers -9 L, Nuggets/Blazers under 216 L
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 22(-1.5 units)
1x Minnesota -3 vs. Ohio State – Give the Buckeyes credit for the upset of Purdue but this is still an average team. Obviously the Gophers are a cover machine at 22-3 ATS but I also think the spot favors them. They lost in Columbus earlier this season and I think the line is cheap. I’ll take the bait. WIN
3x D’Angelo Russell over 3.5 rebounds at Warriors (+100) – When LeBron misses games, Russell is more engaged and logs more minutes. That has translated to more rebounds. In the last three games without LeBron, Russell has grabbed five or more rebounds. I also think the Warriors are a good opponent as they often play small and also shoot three-pointers, which leads to long rebounds for a guard like Russell. WIN
5x Deni Avdija over 15.5 points at Nuggets – This prop seems incredibly low. Kyle Kuzma will miss this game and that should translate to more shot attempts for Avdija. In the two games Kuzma has missed, Avdija scored 24 and 43 points. Overall, he’s been more of a focal point of Washington’s offense lately, as the Wiz are trying to assess what they have with the 23-year-old. They want to know whether he is a future All-Star and can carry a team. That’s why his usage has increased from 19.4% through 40 games to 23.2% over the last 10 games. LOSS
LEANS: Knicks +1 W, Nets +2 L, Mavs -2.5 W, Thunder -2 W, Hornets +10 W, Lakers +5.5 L, Rutgers +15 L
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 21 (+2.9 units)
3x St. John’s 1st Half -5.5 at Georgetown – Regardless of Rick Pitino’s recent tirade, this play makes a lot of sense. The Red Storm rank 29th in the country in first-half scoring. It’s the second halves that have been their undoing. The Hoyas are a mess across the board so I expect a strong start by St. John’s, particularly in the aftermath of Pitino’s comments. WIN
1x Kentucky/LSU under 163 – I am going to ride this new Wildcats defensive mindset that we saw at Auburn last weekend. They clamped down on the Tigers and the current market only sees that as one data point. In theory, this should provide great opportunity with their over/under. WIN
1x UNLV/Air Force over 130.5 – The Falcons have cashed the over in 10 straight games and 15 of the last 16. Also, UNLV lost to Air Force in their earlier meeting and the Rebels defense looked completely lost. The Falcons offense looked like a layup line. The overnight number was around 135.5 and it has crashed. I think the market has corrected too much. LOSS
LEANS: Boston/American under 128 W, Alabama -9.5 L, Georgia -1 W
TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 20(-5.83 units)
3x Oklahoma -10.5 at Cincinnati (Women’s CBB) – The Sooners have covered 10 straight games and currently sit in first place in the Big 12. The Bearcats are near the bottom of the conference have lost all six of their games against the top-five teams in the Big 12 by 13+ points. LOSS
.75x Texas A&M -11.5 vs. Arkansas – I think it’s a great spot to back the Aggies. First, they lost in Fayetteville so the revenge angle applies. Second, they are coming off a beatdown by Alabama where they allowed 100 points. For whatever reason, the Razorbacks have been a disaster this season. I think this game gets out of hand. LOSS
.5x plays: UCF -3 L, NC State -5.5 L, SDSU/Utah St. under 143.5 W, Tennessee -12 L, St. Mary’s -7.5 L
LEANS: Wyoming +14 L, Utah St. -2 W, Iowa +9.5 W, Maryland +7.5 W
MONDAY, FEBRUARY 19 (+2.0 units)
2x Virginia Tech -3 vs. Virginia (-120) – I initially leaned UVA but sharp money has come in on the Hokies and it makes sense. They’ve won three straight meetings in Blacksburg and the Hoos have limitations beyond Reece Beekman. WIN
LEANS: Houston -9 L, Kansas St. +9 W
SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 18(-1.1 units)
.5x Utah/UCLA under 134.5 and .5x 1st Half under 63.5 – The metrics are tough to read with the Bruins, since they’ve been playing so much better. They have won six straight games and eight of nine with the lone loss coming at Arizona by six points. Both these teams had hard-fought wins on Thursday and I expect a somewhat sluggish performance tonight. LOSS
LEANS: Rutgers +5.5 L, UCLA -5.5 L, East All-Stars +2.5 W, Tatum MVP +900 L
SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 17(-10.53 units)
4x Gonzaga -24.5 at Pacific (women’s basketball) – This is a classic case of oddsmakers not playing attention to personnel. The Bulldogs have covered 10 of 12 conference games and the two outliers came when playing without senior Yvonne Ejim, who was playing with the Canadian national team in Olympic qualifiers. The Zags won the first meeting by 65 points. LOSS
5x Lafayette/American under 126.5 and 2x 1st Half under 58.5 – The Eagles are short-handed right now with three guys injured. In the past three games without them, American’s under has cashed with ease – all by at least 20 points. The market has been unable to capture their absences accurately. American has a poor defensive rating but the Eagles have slowed down their pace considerably. This feels like a banger. 3.5xLOSS
1x Sanford/Mercer over 146.5 – In their previous meeting, they combined for 167 points and only one team shot extremely well from downtown but not enough to portray an abnormal outcome. They played with pace and there’s no reason to think this won’t occur again. WIN
.5x Hawaii/UCSB over 141.5 – They combined for 139 in the earlier meeting after making only seven 3-pointers. They average a combined 14 so there should be some regression. WIN
3x Grand Canyon -13.5 vs. Cal Baptist – The Lancers continue to play without stud point guard Dominique Daniels, who is their leading scorer at 19.2 points per game. They’ve failed to cover all three games he has missed so I will look to keep riding this train until he returns. Meanwhile, the Lopes are 13-1 at home and fully capable of trucking a weak opponent. Baptist just lost by 23 to an average Utah Valley team, and I expect a similar result here. LOSS
.5x South Carolina -7 vs. LSU – The Gamecocks are coming off a beatdown at Auburn and get LSU and its 172nd-ranked defense as a remedy. South Carolina is well-coached and motivated so I expect a solid win. LOSS
.25x Auburn -8.5 vs. Kentucky – respected bettors are on the underdog here but I will side with the Tigers. They’re just a different team at home and Bruce Pearl will have The Jungle rocking for such a big-name opponent. LOSS
LEANS: Kansas State -1.5 L, Virginia -3.5 L, Creighton -2.5 W, Purdue Fort Wayne -9.5 W, Georgia +3.5 L, UConn -7 W, Oklahoma +3 L, Maryland +2.5 L, Louisville +12 L, ASU +18.5 L, Colorado -1.5 W, Hawai’i +1.5 L
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 16(-.05 units)
.5x Villanova/Georgetown over 140.5 – If it weren’t for DePaul, the Hoyas would be more of a Big East punching bag. They’ve lost nine straight but have been competitive in a few. I actually think they might show up and that bodes well for the offense. Specifically, they’ve cashed the over eight times during this skid, as opposing teams are capitalizing on the opportunity to light it up. LOSS
.5x San Diego St. (-6) vs. New Mexico – I like this Lobos squad but they are facing a tough challenge. The Aztecs got pummeled at The Pit and the crowd will be rocking on a weekend night. New Mexico is just 5-3 on the road and struggles with teams (like UNLV) that can match its athleticism. The Aztecs are undefeated at home and 7-3 ATS as a home favorite. This feels like the right side. WIN
LEANS: Cornell -9 W, Columbia -10 P, Brown +14 W
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 15(-.75 units)
3x Bucks (-11.5) at Grizzlies and .5x 1st Half -7.5 – I think it’s a great spot to back Milwaukee, even though “senioritis” can impact big favorites right before the All-Star Break. First off, Memphis just snapped a nine-game losing streak so their thirst might be quenched. But more importantly, Milwaukee is coming off an embarrassing loss and this team has commented publicly about needing to handle their business. I think they do against this short-handed Memphis squad. LOSS
2x T’Wolves -10 at Blazers and .5x 1st Half -5.5 – I have been impressed by this current stretch and think Minnesota has the focus to finish strong before the All-Star Break. They are facing a Blazers team that benefits from catching teams off guard but doesn’t have the horses when teams are locked in. WIN
.5x Steph Curry over 6.5 assists (+120) – The Jazz rank in the bottom ten of defensive efficiency and opponent shooting percentage. Add that to the fact that Curry had 10 assists in the previous meeting and we should see a shaky defense allowing him to carve them up. WIN
LEANS: Northwestern +4 W, Temple +19.5 W, Minnesota +17 W, Jazz +2 L, UCLA +1.5 W Stanford +4 L, Utah +1 L
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 14 (+7.9 units)
2.5x UConn -42.5 at Xavier (women’s basketball) – Xavier ranks 352nd out of 360 teams in margin and is the worst opponent the Huskies will face all season. UConn is coming off an embarrassing loss on national tv and cannot cruise with a big lead because it only has nine available players. This should be a monster blowout. WIN
2x Oklahoma +1 vs. Baylor (women’s basketball) – The Sooners are on a roll, winning and covering seven straight games. Overall, they are 11-1 in conference play with wins over #2 Kansas State and #5 Texas. I will take them at home. WIN
2.5x Ohio State -13.5 vs. Nebraska (women’s basketball) – The Cornhuskers are coming off the program’s biggest win by defeating Caitlin Clark and Iowa. This has all the makings of a giant letdown spot. The Buckeyes have won and covered all six Big Ten homes games and are 11-2 ATS overall. The press will bother Nebraska, which is only 2-5 ATS in conference road games. WIN
1x Hornets +7 vs. Hawks – Charlotte shuffled its roster before the trade deadline and is much more competent. That’s why they’ve won consecutive games, including a win over Indiana, and the market just cannot properly rate this version. The Hawks have the NBA’s worst record against the spread and are missing a couple bigs. I even think Charlotte is live on the ML. WIN
1x Nets/Celtics under 227.5 – Brooklyn is a much slower team with Dennis Schroder as its point guard, who is expected to play a lot more with Ben Simmons out of the lineup on Wednesday. Boston was on cruise control in yesterday’s win and I expect more of the same, especially without Jaylen Brown. WIN
.5x Maryland 1st Half -2.5 vs. Iowa – I typically like fading a team off a slow start and win. That’s exactly what happened with the Hawkeyes on Sunday. Couple that with the fact that the Terps play remarkably better at home, and I am okay with the first half line. I just worry that Maryland cannot match Iowa’s offensive upside. LOSS
.5x Oregon State +7 at Arizona State – I realize the Beavers are in last place but I do not believe ASU should be favored by this many points over anyone. I anticipate an ugly game but one that stays within the number. LOSS
LEANS: Penn State +3.5 L, Magic -3.5 W, Heat +3 W, Nets +12 L, Pistons +13 L, Nuggets -5.5 L, Warriors -3.5 L
TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 13(-1.2 units)
2x Wisconsin -9 vs. Ohio State – This is pretty simple. The Badgers have lost four straight games and now face a weak Ohio State squad. The Buckeyes got a big win on Saturday in double-overtime, snapping their five-game skid. There is a chance that catapults the Buckeyes but I think the opposite in that they should be relieved and not as hungry. LOSS
1x Suns -4.5 vs. Kings – I typically always want to back Phoenix off a loss. When engaged, the Suns and their big three are as potent as there is in the league. Sacramento has an explosive offense but I think they tend to be weak-minded and the defense is poor. WIN
LEANS: Georgetown +19 L, Miss/Kentucky over 162 L, Kentucky -8.5 W, Magic +2.5 L, Nets +8 P, Heat +8 W, Blazers 1H +4 L, Pistons +10.5 L
MONDAY, FEBRUARY 12(+0.0 units)
SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 11(-4.45 units)
4x Brock Purdy’s 1st completion under 10.5 yards (-125) (DraftKings) and 1.5x Purdy under 54.5 1st Quarter passing yards (DK) – The completion prop is my top play. The odds are based on regular season stats, and that is why there is an edge. Nothing is bigger than the Super Bowl. Thus, the nerves are unparalleled. So the regular season is essentially pointless. Super Bowl play-callers often opt for easy throws to ease their QB into the game and avoid mistakes. The last thing they want is a three-and-out or adrenaline to cause an errant throw that leads to an interception. Magnifying this logic is Purdy’s early shakiness in several big games – both playoff games and the regular season meeting with Baltimore. Frankly, Kyle Shanahan should be criticized if he calls anything but a couple easy throws early in the game. Obviously there is always a chance for a short throw that features broken tackles and many yards after the catch. But that is gambling. I am confident the first few throws will have low air yards. LOSS
1.5x Mahomes 1st completion under 8.5 yards – Same logic as above. It’s always in the best interest of a Super Bowl QB to simplify things early. Mahomes actually had the lowest air yardage of any starting quarterback this past regular season. I expect a pass near the line of scrimmage, particularly because it has the added bonus of nullifying an intense pass rush. WIN
1.5x 49ers longest punt over 57.5 yards (-125) (DraftKings) – Unlike San Francisco’s rookie place kicker, Mitch Wisnowsky is a reliable and talented punter. Couple that with perfect conditions in the Allegiant Stadium dome and a little bit of altitude, Wishnowsky should surpass this mark. The 49ers played in three domed stadiums this season and he surpassed the mark in two of them. The lone outlier was a 56-yarder at Arizona, when he only punted twice the entire game. The KC defense is stout and should force about four punts, especially if I think Purdy will struggle at times. LOSS
2x No punts will result in a touchback (-155) – Wisnowsky and Tommy Townsend are elite punters. Their punts resulted in a touchback in just six of 34 combined regular season games. Wisnowsky avoided a touchback in all five playoff punts. Townsend had one in all three postseason games but those all involved very cold weather. This game will be played indoors in ideal conditions. This moneyline should be -300. I am risking 3.1 units to win 2 units. WIN
.5x 49ers over 1.5 three-and-outs (-120) and .5x Chiefs over 1.5 three-and-outs (-120) – Each team has been known to hit some dry spells. Purdy has been shaky early in big games and KC is one of the lowest-scoring teams in the second half. The Super Bowl does tend to have fewer penalties so offenses may get away with holding and that would inhibit this bet. However, I still like it. WIN
.4x Christian McCaffrey to have most receiving yards +2300 (FanDuel) – The stars are aligned for this to cash. First off, this game does not feature a dominant WR like CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase that will garner double-digit targets. A handful of guys can post around 75 yards and that could be enough for the top mark, if both teams lean on their rushing attack like many believe they will. I also think Shanahan shines when he instills creativity, such as lining up McCaffrey as a wideout and Deebo Samuel in the backfield. CMC is their best player and they will ride him as much as they can. There is no pitch count. Other books also offer this in the range of +1800 to +2000. LOSS
.01x Harrison Butker 490-1 and .01 Jake Moody 370-1 Super Bowl MVP – this is ridiculous on a few fronts but these odds translate to a probability of .2% and .27%, respectively. A kicker has never won the MVP award but we also recently saw a safety on a Super Bowl’s first play that cashed insane odds. Both guys have huge legs and if the game unfolds a certain way, each kicker could play a critical role. LOSS
LEANS: Chiefs +2 W, KC/SF under 47.5 W
SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 10 (+1.1 units)
3x Kansas St. / Oklahoma St. under 133.5 (women’s basketball) – The Wildcats own the conference’s top defense and also have a slow pace on offense. The under is 9-1 in their 10 conference games and not a single result has reached this point threshold. LOSS
.25x UConn -16 at Georgetown – The Hoyas lost by only 13 points at Storrs but they were extremely fortunate to stay attached in that game, catching every break and the Huskies lacked focus. I think G’Town gets rolled at home here. It’s not a big play but I just have to play this for a little. WIN
3x Nebraska -9.5 vs. Michigan – I am going to fade the Wolverines again. I beat their closing number on Wednesday by three points but somehow they beat Wisconsin. Strange results can happen in all sports. I am undeterred in believing the Michigan is weak. This games presents a situation where I think the Wolverines may still be celebrating that win and could be drilled in Lincoln. Nebraska is 14-1 at home this season and has some wins over quality teams (Purdue, Wisconsin, Northwestern). The Huskers are also off back-to-back losses so I expect a strong effort. WIN
1.5x Kentucky -6 vs. Gonzaga and 1x Kentucky -4 (added at 2:07pm ET) – The Zags are riding on the coattails of past success. This team is pretty limited by their lofty standards and when comparing them to contenders like UK. The Wildcats have sputtered at times and aren’t the most reliable team but asking the Bulldogs to hang around at Rupp Arena with an early tip for west coasters is a lot. LOSS
1x Utah Tech +4.5 vs. Cal Baptist – This game is off the grid but it pays the same, as we saw a couple days ago when Cal Baptist went under the total. The Lancers’ best player is their point guard and he will miss his second straight game. As for this matchup, both coaches know each other and this should come down to the wire. WIN
1x Weber State -13.5 vs. Sacramento State – This is a great revenge spot for the Wildcats, who lost the earlier meeting. Now they get the Hornets at home. Sac State is just 2-9 in conference play and has lost seven straight games, including a 28-point loss at Idaho State on Thursday. This is a tough turnaround and should be a loss by 20+ points. LOSS
3x St. Mary’s -18 at Portland – The Gaels have drilled the conference’s bottom-feeders, including Portland in the earlier meeting (43 points). The Pilots have been hit hard by injuries and just do not have the manpower to hang around in this game. WIN
1x Stanford -2 vs. USC – This line doesn’t make much sense but I will take the bait. The Trojans have lost seven of eight games. Injuries have derailed their season and the lone win came at home against lowly Oregon State. The Cardinal are coming off consecutive losses so I am expecting a good performance. WIN
LEANS: Brown -4.5 L, Long Beach State -14 L, Michigan St. -3.5 W, Florida +1.5 W, Houston/Cincinnati under 131.5 W, Rice +4 P, Northern Kentucky -13.5 L, Washington St. +3.5 W, Baylor +6.5 W
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 9 (+.5 units)
.5x Nevada -3 vs. San Diego St. – Home court is extremely significant in the Mountain West. Nevada is 11-1 at home, while the Aztecs are 2-3 on the road in conference play – and those two wins came against lowly Air Force and San Jose St. San Diego St. is also off a road win so I expect them to be a bit relaxed and fatigued in the altitude. WIN
NFL AWARDS WAGERS GRADED, FEBRUARY 8 (+8.0 units)
Jan. 2: 5x Christian McCaffrey Offensive Player of the Year (-300) WIN
Jan. 2: .3x Tyreek Hill +3000 over 1,964.5 receiving yards for regular season (DraftKings) LOSS
Dec. 26: 2x Joe Flacco Comeback Player of the Year +400 (DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars) WIN
5x Damar Hamlin Comeback Player of the Year -140 LOSS
1x Baker Mayfield Comeback Player of the Year +1200 LOSS
Jan. 7: 2x Stefanski Coach of the Year -125 (FanDuel) WIN
Dec. 26: .5x DeMeco Ryans NFL Coach of the Year +1000 (Caesars) LOSS
Dec. 26: 1x Dak Prescott NFL MVP +2500 (Caesars) LOSS
Dec. 18: 2x Myles Garrett NFL Defensive Player of the Year +165 (DraftKings) WIN
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 8 (+1.175 units)
2x Texas Arlington/Cal Baptist under 141 – this is a very limited offensive matchup. Everything I’m hearing is that the play is the under WIN
.5x Colorado -14.5 vs Arizona St. – the Sun Devils have lost six of seven and a trip to Boulder is not the prescription. CU is off consecutive losses and should roll here. LOSS
.25x Jazz 1st qtr +1.5 – Phoenix has a knack for starting slowly when coming off a big win. Essentially, they are bored. Opponents tend to jump on them early and they’re ambivalent. LOSS
LEANS: Nuggets -3.5 W, Utah Utes +5.5 L, Oregon State +9 W
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 7 (-8.0 units)
3x Wisconsin -5.5 at Michigan – this line stinks to high heaven but I still have to lay it. The Wolverines are dead last in the Big Ten at 2-9 and 2-9 ATS. Wiscy is coming off consecutive losses so I have to imagine they will not look past an inferior opponent and instead will handle their business. The Wolverines are also 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games. I think this line is skewed because KenPom.com projects a margin of six but sometimes that works to the bettor’s advantage. Last weekend, the site had Houston with a five-point margin at Kansas and the Cougars opened as a two-point favorite. I think this line is off too. LOSS
2x Brandon Miller over 21.5 points (-125) – Charlotte is not hiding its intentions, which are to feed Miller the ball constantly and see what they have with the rookie. He’s had at least 19 shot attempts in the last five games and surpassed 21.5 points in all but one. Not only is all of that encouraging but facing Toronto is a plus. The total is 224, which is 10 points higher than when they faced the Bulls and that’s the one opponent where Miller went under 21.5 points (landed 21). Truthfully, I’d be surprised if he does not score at least 25 points. And you get the additional chance that Miles Bridges is traded before the game and that would lead to more usage for Miller. LOSS
2x Jonathan Kuminga over 19.5 points – It’s hard not to back the over, as he has scored at least 20 points in nine of the last 10 games. Steve Kerr is finally utilizing Kuminga and his athleticism jumps off the screen. With a total of 237.5 against a Philly team that wants to push pace without Joel Eimbiid, this figures to be a high-scoring game and that bodes well for Kuminga’s points. LOSS
LEANS: Klay Thompson under 16.5 points L
TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 6 (-.05 units)
.5x Suns -3.5 vs. Bucks and .5x Suns Team Total over 123.5 points – I only bet on Phoenix when they are at full strength and off a loss or facing a marquee opponent. We have that with the Bucks, who are wrapping up a five-game road trip. Milwaukee is only 1-3 to start this trip and the defense has not improved under new coach Doc Rivers. I do not see how the Bucks limit the firepower of Phoenix. .05x LOSS
LEANS: Mavs -3.5 W, Thunder -3 L, Oklahoma -2 W, Butler/UConn over 144.5 L, Utah State -5.5 L, Minnesota +3 W
MONDAY, FEBRUARY 5(+.74 units)
.5x Kansas/Kansas St. under 145.5 – the Jayhawks are coming off an emotional win against Houston and now have to travel for a rivalry game. This is a brutal spot for KU and while I do not think they cover, I think the under is the better play. I feel this game could hit a serious wall in the second half, given the emotion and intensity. WIN
.5x Miami/Virginia under 132 – UVA has been on a roll, winning six straight games and moving into second place in the ACC. This is all about Virginia dictating the game with its 11th-ranked defense and 144th-ranked offense. The Canes can be a tricky team to predict but I feel UVA will keep this on the lower-scoring side. Virginia has cashed the under in six straight games where the total is lined at 129 or higher. WIN
.25x Myles Bridges under 23.5 points vs. Lakers (-105) – Bridges has surpassed this mark just once in the last seven games, and that’s because he shot 6-13 from downtown in the lone over. That’s in large part to the emergence of rookie Brandon Miller, who clearly has become a focal point for the offense. Bridges has still managed a decent amount of shots lately but I also feel the Lakers’ length could bother him around the rim. LOSS
LEANS: Cavs -3 W, Mavs -3.5 W, Lakers -12.5 L, Warriors/Nets over 238 L, Clippers/Hawks over 243 W, Raptors +10.5 L
SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 4(+1.21 units)
1x Pacers 1st Half -6.5 at Hornets – Indiana has lost three straight games and should blast a bad Hornets squad that is down numerous key players, including LaMelo Ball. The Pacers are an explosive team and Charlotte does not offer much resistance at all. Indy is starting its main lineup too after battling some injuries. Rick Carlisle is an elite coach and should have Indy to play to get back on track. WIN
.75x T’Wolves 1st Half -4 vs. Rockets and .25x T’Wolves -7 – this is about backing a good team in Minnesota off a loss against a Rockets squad that has really struggled on the road. I think the edge sits with the first half line but Minnesota should cover over four quarters as well. .25xWIN
.75x Jazz 1Q Team Total over 30.5 (+100) vs. Bucks and .75x 1H Team Total over 61.5 (-105) – Utah has lost three straight games and should be ready to rock, facing a poor Milwaukee defense. The Bucks just got a big win in Dallas so I wonder how much tenacity they will play with off the tip. I like Utah to start strong and score with ease. .038xLOSS
LEANS: Heat +4.5 L, Blazers +14.5 W, Nebraska +9.5 W, Stanford +17.5 W
SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 3 (-1.53 units)
25x Knicks -3.5 vs. Lakers – This is a great spot to fade L.A., coming off a huge win in Boston without LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Both are listed as questionable tonight, as is OG Anunoby for the Knicks. Frankly, the Knicks are the league’s hottest team and I want to back them, rather than a team playing its fifth straight road game. LOSS
.5x Warriors +1.5 at Hawks – Both teams are coming off wins yesterday and Golden State had to travel from Memphis to Atlanta. I think the Hawks are shaky, which is illustrated with the league’s worst ATS mark at 13-35. As for the Warriors, I think they’ve turned the corner due to the recent emergence of Jonathan Kuminga, who has finally started to utilize his superior athleticism. That’s enabled Golden State to have more offensive balance, which frees up Steph Curry because defenses cannot just focus entirely on him. I do not think the market has caught up to Golden State’s new look. LOSS
.5x UNC -4.5 vs. Duke – sharp money has come on the Blue Devils, which is why the number peaked at 5.5. I think the Heels are the right side though. I don’t put too much stock in the loss at Georgia Tech, which is the only ACC game that UNC has not covered. Both teams are tough and obviously ranked in the top 10 but I will side with the home squad. WIN
1x Minnesota PK vs. Northwestern – the Gophers are taking sharp money because the Wildcats are coming off an excruciating loss at Purdue and their hot shooting is due for regression. And for what it’s worth, Minnesota is 17-3 ATS, which is the nation’s best record. Perhaps the market just has not assessed this team correctly. WIN
2x Houston/Kansas under 134.5 – This number feels incredibly high. The Cougars have the nation’s top-ranked defense, according to KenPom. Kansas also lacks depth so I think Houston will wear them out and the pace should come to a halt. Plus, with the magnitude of this game, I also expect possessions to be very measured the final ten minutes. Kansas also has a solid defense (ranked 22nd). However, both offense are ranked in the 20’s but I still think the other variables will ensure a lower-scoring game. LOSS
LEANS: UConn -3 W, West Virginia +7 L, Louisville +5.5 W, San Diego +13 W, UC Davis -9.5 L, UCLA +2.5 W, USC -9.5 W, UNLV -9.5 W
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 2 (-1.10 units)
.75x Iowa -5 over Ohio State (-120) – This Buckeyes team is headed in the wrong direction, having lost six of seven. Head coach Chris Holtmann may not make it through the end of the season. Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes are tough at home and I think they get back on track with a spirited effort, given they have lost three of four. LOSS
1.5x Hawks 1st Quarter Team Total over 31.5 +100 vs. Suns – Phoenix is off a big win and that typically means a lethargic start to their next game. That’s been the case since the big three has returned and figured out what works for them. They are pretty apathetic and want the playoffs to start. So I think Atlanta will score plenty but I have no faith in their ability to stop the Suns’ firepower. WIN
1x Kings 1st Quarter Team Total over 32.5 at Pacers (-105) – Because I apparently like pain, I am going to try this wager again. I think Sacramento has the offense to light up Indy’s poor defense. The Pacers are off a big game at the Knicks last night so I think Sacto can jump on them. I also am unsure who exactly will play for Indy, given the uncertain status of Tyrese Haliburton and a couple others, so I will focus on the team total. WIN
.5x Hornets 1st Quarter +5.5 vs. Thunder (-115) – This is a straight fade of Oklahoma City, which is coming off a big win over the defending champs. OKC has demonstrated an inability to approach games against inferior competition the right way so I think 5.5 is way too many points for the first quarter. LOSS
1x Warriors 1st Quarter -2.5 and 1x 1st Quarter Team Total over 28.5 points – I think this is a great spot for Golden State. The Warriors lost the last time they played in Memphis last month and faced this limited lineup. The revenge angle is a good one and the Grizz played last night. Plus, in addition to all their expected injuries, Luke Kennard may miss this game. The Warriors should have the right mindset to jump on Memphis from the start. LOSS
LEANS: Heat -8 P, Pistons +12 W, Warriors -8.5 W, Spurs +8.5 W, Magic +6.5 W, Blazers +12.5 W, Butler +11 W, Nevada -11.5 W
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 1 (+.53 units)
1x Lakers/Celtics under 239 – this feels like an astronomically high number with L.A. missing both LeBron James and Anthony Davis. The Lakers may try to push the pace and score before Boston can set up its defense but I doubt they have the horses to succeed. Plus, Boston’s offense may not play with the same urgency, given the lack of Lakers starpower. This is what typically happens in these games, much like we saw on Wednesday when the shorthanded Mavs faced the Timberwolves. WIN
.5x D’Angelo Russell over 3.5 Rebounds (+125) – The rationale is pretty simple. With LeBron James and Anthony Davis missing this game, he will have high usage. With the increased responsibility and minutes, Russell will be more engaged and play with more energy. We have no baseline for this specific lineup because it’s the first time LeBron and AD have missed the same game this season but Russell has grabbed at least three rebounds in every game LeBron has missed. Plus, he’s taking on more responsibility of late. WIN
1x Jazz -5 vs. Sixers – Philly has lost four straight games on this road trip and now hits the altitude in Utah. The Jazz are off consecutive losses but this is the right time to back them. They have turned the corner since inserting Colin Sexton into the starting lineup and their recent losses are more attributed to quality competition. The Sixers are without Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey is listed as questionable. This does have all the makings of a convincing Utah win. LOSS
LEANS: Cavs -8.5 L, Pacers/Knicks under 235 W, Wisconsin -1 L, Cleveland St. -7.5 W, Cleveland St/Detroit Mercy over 145 L